Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
342 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, with
activity beginning to decrease by 6pm. Some storms may contain
gusty winds and heavy downpours, but should stay below severe
thresholds. Precip is expected to be mostly east of the area by
midnight. Another wave of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible on Wednesday, however, coverage is expected to be less
than today as the deeper moisture will be located to the south and
east of Middle Tennessee. The main timing for any storms on
Wednesday will be in the late morning and afternoon. Under partly
cloudy skies and a light southerly wind, we should warm into the
low to mid 80s Wednesday afternoon. Other than a few lingering
showers and thunderstorms on the Plateau Wednesday evening, most
of the area should be dry and remain that way through at least
early afternoon on Thursday.

The showers and thunderstorms expected on Thursday will be
arriving just ahead of a weak cold front that is expected to
slowly sink down from Kentucky early Friday morning through
Saturday morning. High temperatures will vary from around 70 to
near 80 degrees on Friday depending on how far south the front is
able to make it. With the boundary bobbing over us Friday and
Saturday morning, we'll likely see showers and isolated
thunderstorms persist through both of those day. By Saturday
afternoon the boundary should lift northward just ahead of an
approaching surface low. Instability looks marginal with GFS
soundings showing MUCAPE values around 800 j/kg, but bulk shear
values around 50 knots by early Saturday afternoon. So
thunderstorm chances will be fairly high throughout the day with
some strong storms possible in the afternoon. Severe storms aren't
out of the question, but if models continue to push the surface
low south as they are trying to do, strong storms may be all we
can muster up. Soundings are saturated and PWAT values are around
1.3 inches for most of the day on Saturday, so rainfall values of
0.5 to 1 inch will be possible.

Thunderstorms may persist overnight Saturday night, but by Sunday
morning only showers are expected. It may be Sunday evening before
all the precip exits our southern and eastern counties.
Temperatures on Sunday afternoon will be much cooler, with most
areas only reaching the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures will
rebound into the 70s for the first half of the work week next
week and a nearby surface high should keep conditions pleasantly
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VCSH/VCTS at all airports today with prevailing -SHRA at BNA/CSV
later this afternoon. Current MVFR cigs at airports will become
VFR later this afternoon/evening, then return to IFR at CSV
overnight. Generally light south winds anticipated through the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  84  63  86  62 /  30  30  10  20  50
Clarksville    62  82  63  83  60 /  20  30  10  30  60
Crossville     59  76  60  79  60 /  60  40  30  20  40
Columbia       63  82  62  84  62 /  40  20  10  20  40
Lawrenceburg   63  81  62  84  62 /  40  20  10  20  40
Waverly        63  82  64  83  62 /  20  20  10  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
802 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191315-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
802 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few strong storms will be possible this afternoon across all of
Middle Tennessee. The main concerns will be small hail and gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

27

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