Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
342 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, with
activity beginning to decrease by 6pm. Some storms may contain
gusty winds and heavy downpours, but should stay below severe
thresholds. Precip is expected to be mostly east of the area by
midnight. Another wave of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible on Wednesday, however, coverage is expected to be less
than today as the deeper moisture will be located to the south and
east of Middle Tennessee. The main timing for any storms on
Wednesday will be in the late morning and afternoon. Under partly
cloudy skies and a light southerly wind, we should warm into the
low to mid 80s Wednesday afternoon. Other than a few lingering
showers and thunderstorms on the Plateau Wednesday evening, most
of the area should be dry and remain that way through at least
early afternoon on Thursday.

The showers and thunderstorms expected on Thursday will be
arriving just ahead of a weak cold front that is expected to
slowly sink down from Kentucky early Friday morning through
Saturday morning. High temperatures will vary from around 70 to
near 80 degrees on Friday depending on how far south the front is
able to make it. With the boundary bobbing over us Friday and
Saturday morning, we'll likely see showers and isolated
thunderstorms persist through both of those day. By Saturday
afternoon the boundary should lift northward just ahead of an
approaching surface low. Instability looks marginal with GFS
soundings showing MUCAPE values around 800 j/kg, but bulk shear
values around 50 knots by early Saturday afternoon. So
thunderstorm chances will be fairly high throughout the day with
some strong storms possible in the afternoon. Severe storms aren't
out of the question, but if models continue to push the surface
low south as they are trying to do, strong storms may be all we
can muster up. Soundings are saturated and PWAT values are around
1.3 inches for most of the day on Saturday, so rainfall values of
0.5 to 1 inch will be possible.

Thunderstorms may persist overnight Saturday night, but by Sunday
morning only showers are expected. It may be Sunday evening before
all the precip exits our southern and eastern counties.
Temperatures on Sunday afternoon will be much cooler, with most
areas only reaching the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures will
rebound into the 70s for the first half of the work week next
week and a nearby surface high should keep conditions pleasantly
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VCSH/VCTS at all airports today with prevailing -SHRA at BNA/CSV
later this afternoon. Current MVFR cigs at airports will become
VFR later this afternoon/evening, then return to IFR at CSV
overnight. Generally light south winds anticipated through the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  84  63  86  62 /  30  30  10  20  50
Clarksville    62  82  63  83  60 /  20  30  10  30  60
Crossville     59  76  60  79  60 /  60  40  30  20  40
Columbia       63  82  62  84  62 /  40  20  10  20  40
Lawrenceburg   63  81  62  84  62 /  40  20  10  20  40
Waverly        63  82  64  83  62 /  20  20  10  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
802 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191315-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
802 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few strong storms will be possible this afternoon across all of
Middle Tennessee. The main concerns will be small hail and gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
219 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

TNZ005-181945-
Stewart TN-
219 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM CDT...

At 218 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Paris Landing State Park, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dover and Land Between The Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Kentucky Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3647 8805 3649 8806 3651 8804 3653 8803
      3656 8803 3662 8805 3667 8797 3667 8789
      3642 8775 3638 8801 3639 8801 3642 8804
      3645 8806
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 244DEG 16KT 3646 8811

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
317 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

TNZ077-182045-
Coffee TN-
317 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Estill Springs, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manchester, Hillsboro, Arnold AFB and Woods Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3531 8594 3531 8596 3530 8596 3532 8598
      3531 8600 3534 8603 3535 8606 3536 8615
      3536 8616 3535 8616 3535 8617 3550 8614
      3545 8589 3530 8594
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 205DEG 19KT 3528 8609

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
340 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

TNZ007-008-026-027-182115-
Robertson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-Sumner TN-
340 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DAVIDSON...SOUTHWESTERN
SUMNER...NORTHEASTERN CHEATHAM AND SOUTHERN ROBERTSON COUNTIES UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Nashville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Nashville, Madison, Hendersonville, Goodlettsville,
White House, Millersville, Greenbrier, Coopertown, Lakewood,
Ridgetop, Old Hickory, Joelton, Pleasant View, Bells Bend, Whites
Creek and Beaman Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 8673 3624 8659 3611 8694 3624 8698
      3633 8698 3642 8703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 241DEG 17KT 3620 8692

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
343 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

TNZ027-182115-
Davidson TN-
343 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 343 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Antioch, or 9 miles southeast of Nashville, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Oak Hill, Lakewood, Hermitage, Old Hickory, Antioch, Berry
Hill and Percy Priest Lake.

LAT...LON 3623 8659 3618 8657 3615 8655 3614 8656
      3614 8653 3612 8653 3611 8654 3610 8652
      3600 8666 3606 8681 3629 8671
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 209DEG 23KT 3606 8670

Shamburger

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