Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
648 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Even though no storms have occurred today, people should remain wx
aware. The threat has continued to gradually diminish from our
previous outlooks, but we continue to expect some severe
thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee later this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will
be possible.

At 230 PM, thunderstorms were firing up near the Ms River.
These storms will continue to develop and move east into our area
late this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms may develop
out ahead of the main batch, but with Mid TN dew points only in
the mid 50s, there will not be much until the main event. It looks
like that will start about 5 PM along the Tn River, then spread
across the Mid State through the late afternoon and evening, We
estimate storms at BNA around 7 PM. Storms should be moving east
of the Plateau shortly after midnight.

Air mass recovery has NOT been maximized. Some cloud cover has
limited heating. But the main issue has been moisture, as
indicated by the special 20Z OHX upper air observation.
Sfc dews were in the mid 50s, PW values were under 1 inch, and
capes were only around 500. Quality of moisture has been
questionable with this event since the beginning. Still, it looks
like capes of 1000 will be reached for some areas west of the
Plateau as the storms approach. Effective bulk shear will be
40-50kt. So, severe thunderstorms remain a possibility.
The greatest threat for sustained rotating updrafts will be over
our northwest counties. The storms will tend to weaken as they
move toward the Plateau late this evening, but at least isolated
damaging wind gusts will remain possible throughout the evening.

On Friday, scattered showers may linger early. Highs will be
mainly lower 60s. Good news- the weekend still looks very nice.

The next system will bring more showers and thunderstorms by
Monday. That system will move out Tuesday, with another system on
its heels by Wednesday. So, unsettled spring wx with slightly
warmer than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Line of storms has finally entered Middle Tennessee
with scattered cells popping up out ahead of the organized
convection. Surface winds remain brisk, and have even included a
LLWS remark at CSV for this evening owing to even stronger above-
surface winds. Have timed the TEMPO groups for TS according to the
HRRR. Expect MVFR ceilings on the back side of this system
tomorrow before the moisture finally pulls out.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
355 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-311215-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
355 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms may develop this evening. Hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats. Any activity will weaken
as the sun sets this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
645 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

TNZ005-006-310030-
Stewart TN-Montgomery TN-
645 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY AND EASTERN STEWART
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 645 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Campbell North, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville, Cumberland City, Indian Mound, Palmyra and Woodlawn.

LAT...LON 3662 8713 3661 8712 3656 8714 3655 8713
      3655 8712 3654 8712 3637 8759 3637 8773
      3664 8775 3664 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 230DEG 45KT 3662 8756

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
658 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

TNZ062-075-310030-
Rutherford TN-Bedford TN-
658 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN RUTHERFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 657 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Shelbyville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Pea to half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Walterhill, Lascassas, Christiana, Deason, Rockvale,
Unionville and Fosterville.

LAT...LON 3561 8662 3600 8640 3587 8617 3581 8618
      3580 8618 3578 8620 3552 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 217DEG 38KT 3562 8648

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
704 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

TNZ059-061-062-075-310045-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Bedford TN-Marshall TN-
704 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...
RUTHERFORD...SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON AND NORTHERN BEDFORD COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 704 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lewisburg to near Shelbyville.
Movement was north at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Shelbyville, Lewisburg, Smyrna, Nolensville,
Walterhill, Chapel Hill, Eagleville, Bell Buckle, Lascassas,
Christiana, Fosterville, Triune, Rover, Deason, Rockvale, Farmington
and Unionville.

LAT...LON 3547 8684 3595 8674 3596 8617 3548 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 200DEG 53KT 3553 8676 3554 8645

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