Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
900 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast is really on track this evening. We've been monitoring
convective activity on what seems to be a pre-frontal trough over
the last couple of hours. A couple of cores have peaked out at
decent heights, but with dew points in the low to mid 50s ahead
of this trough, we're not getting the surface based instability to
really help spike these storms at anything more than "strong".
Pea and dime-sized hail is the largest report we've had since the
beginning of the convection. That's not to say one or two
couldn't become severe over the next few hours, but our potential
for anything widespread is really looking low right now. Biggest
threats through the remainder of the evening will continue to be
damaging gusty winds and large hail as the 00Z sounding from OHX
showed 500 mb temperatures around -18 degrees C and relatively
steep mid-level lapse rates.

The interesting element in all of this is the lack of consistency
between some of our models regarding any development on the front
itself over the next several hours. The HRRR has had the majority
of the development on this pre-frontal trough, where the NAM
shows the development on the front itself, which is currently back
over W Tennessee, nearing Clarksville. With the limited
instability, I still think the best money is on this pre-frontal
trough for any severe potential this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will move in this evening
from west to east, and look to impact all terminals. Looking at
short term model consensus, KCKV looks to see showers and VCSH
from around 00Z through 05Z, KBNA from 02Z through 06Z, and KCSV
from 03Z through 07Z. Current thinking is thunderstorms will
mainly impact KBNA and KCSV, and will bring chances for MVFR/IFR
vis and MVFR cigs during thunderstorm passage for KBNA around
02Z-05Z and for KCSV from 05Z-08Z. After the cold front passes,
winds will flip to the northwest and remain around 10 to 15 knots
sustained with gusts to around 20 knots. Some models are placing
MVFR cigs again during the morning hours after sunrise, but left
out mention for now in the TAF until short term models remain
consistent with the MVFR cig solution.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........Barnwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
500 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-251100-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
500 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for locations
generally east of I-24 this evening. There is a marginal risk
of severe thunderstorms for generally the rest of Middle
Tennessee this evening. Some strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible, with strong to damaging winds and large hail
the main concerns. A brief tornado or two and brief heavy
rainfall leading to localized flooding can not totally be ruled
out, but the overall threat is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will most likely be needed this evening.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 mph (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
955 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2017

TNZ031>033-064-065-250445-
Putnam TN-Overton TN-De Kalb TN-Jackson TN-White TN-
955 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OVERTON...
NORTHEASTERN DE KALB...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHERN WHITE AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CST...

At 954 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Baxter, or 9 miles northeast of Smithville, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cookeville, Sparta, Livingston, Algood, Monterey, Baxter, Hamptons
Crossroads, Bakers Crossroads, Burgess Falls State Park and Rickman.

LAT...LON 3610 8519 3610 8525 3600 8526 3592 8576
      3613 8582 3614 8580 3617 8581 3617 8580
      3618 8581 3619 8579 3640 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 243DEG 42KT 3606 8571

Barnwell

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>