River Flood Advisory 28, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
322 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Sun Night)

Will be making some minor tweaks as press time approaches for
shwrs/tstms coverage associated with sfc frontal passage. Will
break out a late afternoon zone grouping to give best detail in
areal coverage of remaining shwrs/tstms. Sfc front has pushed
into nw portions of the mid state this early afternoon. Sfc front
is expected to continue pushing sewd as the late afternoon hours
progress and maybe even south of our cwa as soon as 29/00Z.
Rainfall may end across srn portions of the mid state region as
early as early this evening also. This is based on current
regional radar trends along with diurnal influences wanning
and also realizing best potential of weak shortwave disturbance
passages embedded within quasi broad upper level troughing
influences across region shifting sewd also. Consensus of all
short term and traditional medium range models show that dry
conditions will prevail across the mid state region after midnight
tonight.

However, a significant change to the air mass is expected as the
first part of the weekend progresses, as above mentioned sfc
front will have pushed well south of our region by Sat morning.
Strong high pressure influences centered across wrn portions of
the Great Lakes Region will build into our area. Dry and
seasonably pleasant wx along with moclr skies will be in store
over the weekend as also upper level ridging dynamics to our west
slowly shift ewd into our region.

As for temps, as per above mentioned sfc high pressure influences
to our north build into the mid state region, temps will actually
drop to a few degrees below seasonably normal values for tonight,
with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Highs on Sat continue to
look to be on average 5 to 7 degrees below seasonal normal
values with less humidity also. Thus great wx for outdoor summer
activities on Sat. Highs on Sat will range in the lower 80s,
upper 70s to around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows Sat night
continue to look like they will be seasonably cool, with lows
mainly in the lower 60s, and even into the upper 50s Cumberland
Plateau Region. Highs on Sun afternoon and lows on Sun night will
remain status quo as compared to Sat and Sat night, with some
locations possibly a degree or two warmer.

.LONG TERM...
(Mon-Fri)

Broad upper level ridging will persist across wrn portions with
broad upper level troughing across ern portions of the
contiguous U.S. next work week. 28/12Z EURO/GFS now more in line
with the potential of enhanced upper level troughing influences
across ern portions of contiguous U.S. than their model runs
showed yesterday. Sfc pattern continues to show apex of broad
high pressure influences shifting from wrn portions of the Great
Lakes Region early Mon moving slowly sewd into the cntrl
Appalachians by Fri. Broad high pressure influences will continue
wwd across most of the contiguous U.S. next work week. Dry
conditions will prevail Sun thru Tue night with generally ptcldy
skies expected. With the potential of increasing upper level
troughing influences as the second half of next work week
progresses, especially late work week, ptcldy skies with diurnal
driven typical summertime iso/sct light/mdt shwrs and tstms are
expected to prevail Wed thru Fri.

As for temps, on average, they will be around seasonal normal
values next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to blossom
across the area as a cold front moves through Middle Tennessee
this afternoon and evening. All sites can expect mainly MVFR
conditions. The front will shift winds to northwest, beginning
around 19Z at CKV, 21Z at BNA/MQY, and around 23Z at CSV. A period
of VFR will follow the front with north northwest winds near 10KT.
Forecast models indicate development of a low cloud deck after
10Z which should lift toward the end of the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  84  63  85  62 /  20   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    65  83  59  83  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
Crossville     64  77  58  79  58 /  40  10   0   0   0
Columbia       67  83  61  84  60 /  40   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   68  83  61  84  60 /  40   0   0   0   0
Waverly        66  83  61  84  61 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
253 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2017

TNZ094-095-282030-
Lawrence TN-Giles TN-
253 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND GILES
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lawrenceburg, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Elkton, Goodspring and Frankewing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8692 3521 8735 3538 8725 3524 8683
      3508 8683 3499 8688
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 296DEG 21KT 3527 8722

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
320 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE SPRING HILL       35.75N  86.89W
07/28/2017  E1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   TWITTER

            RECEIVED A PICTURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SPRING HILL
            AREA. A COUPLE OF CUL-DEL-SACS HAD WATER IN THEM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700745

FBORDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
402 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2017

TNZ060-061-282145-
Maury TN-Marshall TN-
402 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN
MAURY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 402 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spring Hill, or 7 miles east of Columbia, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Lewisburg, Spring Hill, I-65 East Of Columbia and
Farmington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 8713 3575 8691 3557 8665 3556 8665
      3537 8680
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 312DEG 19KT 3564 8692

13