Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
309 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms yesterday produced quite a bit of
rainfall across the area, with amounts from a quarter inch in the
northwest up to around 2.5 inches in areas south of I-40 per MRMS
data. 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall with some locally
higher amounts will be possible today, so the flash flood watch
will remain in effect and flooding will be the primary concern
with showers and thunderstorms today.

Ongoing MCS this morning has enough deep layer CAPE, pwat, as
well as a high freezing level to produce some good rainfall
rates/totals across the west and north. A second wave of precip
will move in this afternoon, and mainly impact the south and east
in the warm sector. The chances for severe storms look to be
during this time in the afternoon as temperatures warm south of
the front and allow the atmosphere to become more unstable.
Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threat with stronger
storms, but the atmosphere will have to recover after this MCS
passes this morning. Models had the precip from this morning
moving through later before sunrise, so it looks like we may have
a little more time to destabilize later this morning and early
afternoon. If the surface recovers and warms towards the highest
model guidance, low level lapse rates may be steep enough to help
low level instability and can not rule out an isolated tornado.
As mentioned yesterday, however, flooding will be the main concern
especially in areas receiving higher rainfall amounts yesterday
south of I-40. With the upper low nearby and a strong mid level
jet, storm motions should be around 30 knots, but training of
convection over the same areas could produce a high risk for flash
flooding. Further analysis of model soundings suggest once the
front sags southward, the severe threat will diminish and mainly
looking at trailing showers this evening and overnight. The
Plateau may see a bit more convection this evening before
switching over to showers overnight into Sunday.

The upper low will continue to dig southward overnight and into
Sunday, and the closed low will spin overhead through the day as
the upper jet helps it dig to the southeast. This will keep rain
chances in the forecast through the day, and eventually let up
Sunday evening. Lingering shower chances will mainly impact the
Plateau into Monday morning.

Shortwave ridging will move in later on Monday through late
Tuesday before an approaching trough brings southwest flow to the
upper levels Wednesday morning. Northwest zones may see some
showers move in Wednesday morning, but both the GFS and ECMWF have
the upper trough racing northeast, so showers and thunderstorms
may not impact the rest of the mid state until Wednesday late
afternoon/evening and overnight into Thursday.

Models begin to diverge quite a bit after Thursday morning, so
mainly went with consensus for now on the remainder of the
forecast. With southwest flow lingering aloft for the rest of the
long term, it wont take much to kick off some showers with a
shortwave in the upper flow, so mainly have chance pops hanging
around Thursday and Friday. Weirdly enough models begin to line up
again far out in the extended for Sunday as a large upper trough
moves in. Timing is still a bit off, but solutions are similar in
magnitude, so will be interesting to see how the next big wave
pans out next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

For the next 24 hours, low pressure will move east along a stalled
front over the Tn Valley, creating poor flying wx. Widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms will keep conditions mostly
IFR/MVFR. Numerous taf amendments should be expected as waves of
showers and storms create a lot of variability in cigs/vsbys. The
heaviest rainfall is expected to move across the area from 08Z-
16Z with some torrential downpours. Numerous showers will occur
other times as well, along with areas of fog and stratus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  50  61  50  74 /  80  50  40  20   0
Clarksville    60  47  62  46  73 /  90  40  30  10   0
Crossville     70  49  58  48  67 /  90  80  70  40  10
Columbia       73  50  60  50  73 /  80  60  40  20   0
Lawrenceburg   75  51  60  50  72 /  80  60  50  20   0
Waverly        62  48  62  48  74 /  90  50  30  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
459 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-231000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
459 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch will continue to be in effect for all of
Middle Tennessee through 4 AM CDT Sunday morning. Heavy rainfall
and localized flooding will be possible.

Some strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, especially
during the afternoon hours south of I-40. Main concerns will be
damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary through Saturday night.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down