Special Weather Statement, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
704 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Main concern is potential for severe thunderstorms through the
evening hours.

The atmosphere has continued to destabilize as temperatures south
of the warm front warmed into the 70s. Meanwhile, northeast
Nebraska was only in the mid to upper 40s. Surface low will
track northeast this evening, probably reaching southeast
Minnesota by just after midnight. The strong to severe storms
should exit our area prior to 11 pm, but some high based showers
still seem possible behind the front has depicted by recent
experimental HRRR and experimental HRRR model output. Recent RAP
model runs however are dry. Will maintain some low POPs for now
well behind the front into the early morning hours. Look for
northwest winds and lows in the 40s overnight.

After tonight, we have a dry forecast until Friday afternoon.
After the shortwave energy moves through tonight, we should see
mid level ridging move in from the west. But at the same time, a
trough will be digging from British Columbia Canada into western
Colorado. Cool high pressure at the surface should build over
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Thursday, then move east.
Current model guidance is not in exact agreement, but it appears
that a Rex Block pattern should develop over the northern and
central parts of the Plains, with the mid level low portion of the
block slowly tracking east across Kansas and Missouri Friday
through Saturday. Some precipitation, which may be locally heavy,
should affect about the southern half of the forecast area.
Highest chances are from Friday night into Saturday morning. High
temperatures both Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Temperatures will moderate to highs in the upper 60s to around 70
for Sunday, then mainly lower 70s for Monday. Rain chances look
fairly low on those days, except in northeast Nebraska. It looks
like the main precipitation shield with a low pressure system
moving through the region should stay up across the Dakotas and
Minnesota.

Another couple of systems will move through the mid part of the
country next week. One will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
another Wednesday night into Friday. The late week system looks
cool, but not cool enough for any snow in our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Line of thunderstorms will affect KOMA and KLNK early in the TAF
period...otherwise IFR/LIFR cigs at KOFK will wrap southeast with
increasing northwest winds 10 to 20kts. Cigs should improve
Thursday morning with VFR conditions Thursday afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Zapotocny

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
333 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-201045-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
333 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

A tornado watch has been issued for southwest Iowa and parts of
eastern Nebraska, which is in effect until 10 pm. Storms could
produce large hail and damaging winds. There is also some
potential for tornadoes. The storms may form into a line, with
that line moving eastward through the evening.

A moist and unstable environment, in combination with adequate
wind shear, will be in place this afternoon and into the evening.
This should allow development of some supercell type storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The probability for hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be alert and ready for activation. Follow your
local activation guidelines. Please send us reports of any severe
weather you may observe.

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