Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Omaha, NE

256 
WWUS53 KOAX 140948
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
448 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2017

NEC109-159-140958-
/O.EXP.KOAX.SV.W.0232.000000T0000Z-170814T0945Z/
Lancaster NE-Seward NE-
448 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LANCASTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4071 9708 4083 9706 4089 9658 4065 9660
      4069 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0948Z 271DEG 34KT 4078 9654 

$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
306 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Main forecast concern will deal with timing and extent of showers
and thunderstorms in the short term.

Weak and rather diffuse surface boundary extended from low
pressure over southwest Minnesota into northern Nebraska at 07Z.
Scattered convection was occurring ahead of the boundary from
north central Iowa through northeast and central Nebraska.
An upper level trough from Minnesota into northeast Nebraska was
also helping to support the convection.

Models are similar in pushing the surface boundary a bit further
south this morning before stalling in the vicinity of the I-80
corridor in Iowa and Nebraska. The showers and thunderstorms are
expected to diminish through the morning as the upper trough moves
east of the area, but redevelop by late afternoon and evening as
instability increases along the boundary and low level jet picks
up for a time this evening. Boundary gradually washes out across
the area after midnight Tuesday with 850mb flow becoming more
westerly and also diminishing during that time.

A stronger upper trough and surface system move into the region
late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a better chance of storms and
more significant rain to the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Depending on model there is some chance of lingering showers in
eastern parts of the area Wednesday evening but otherwise drying
out during the night and into Thursday. The chance for more
showers and storms returns Thursday night and Friday as the next
upper trough swings through the area. Models at this time frame do
show some significant differences however with the GFS slower and
stronger with its solution. Current PoPs generally on the lower
end at this time for this period which should suffice until later
runs possibly show better agreement. Warmer temperatures also look
to return for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Some MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible later
tonight with chances highest at KOFK. Tstm chances seem to low to
mention until maybe Monday afternoon, but confidence that far out
of being at the TAF sites is too low to include.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Miller

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1050 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-141645-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
1050 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur overnight, but the
overall chance of severe storms is low.

A few thunderstorms are possible again on Monday afternoon and
evening. Storms could approach severe limits over parts of the
area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

Thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening,
continuing through Tuesday night. Storms again are likely to
develop toward central to northeast Nebraska and then move across
the area through the evening and overnight hours. Storms may be
strong to severe, with damaging winds and large hail the main
risks. In addition, localized heavy rainfall is possible.

Chances for on and off thunderstorms return on Friday and
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight or Monday.