Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
629 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Large scale flow via WV imagery this aftn was depicting a
shortwave trof situated over the nrn high plains beginning to push
into the wrn Dakotas. Meanwhile...88D regional mosaic was showing
a narrow line of convection forming in the panhandle along a
dryline/20deg sfc dew point depressions.

At this point...HIRES models indicate the environment will become
less supportive for severe storm early this evening.  Deep layer
shear will remain relatively strong...but CAPE drop off dramatically.
Cannot totally rule out the possibility for one or two severe/near
severe storms though with hail possible over the nrn CWA.  Toward
mid/late evening...the RAP13 advertises a narrow line convection
forming along increasing bndry lyr threat-E convergence
along/south of the I-80 corridor associated with a cold front
dropping into the cntrl Plains. With DCAPES around 1200J/kg
coupled with increasing lyr Theta-E diff...seems possible a few
storms may produce severe/near-severe winds gusts over the srn
CWA.

Monday aftn...NAM12/GFS20/CMC all prog secondary shot of cold air
advection into the CWA with another round of pcpn activity mainly
over the nrn CWA being driven by rather strong 305-310k isentropic
upglide. More pcpn possible on Wednesday with the passage of a
shortwave trof coupled with warm front lifting thru the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

GFS20/ECM/CMC all advertise a progressive pattern during the
extended pds with pcpn chances from Thursday night into Saturday
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Thunderstorms across central NE appear to have enough support to
possibly hold together to affect the TAF sites within a few hours,
by 01-02z at KOFK/KLNK and 02-03z at KOMA. Have put in about 2-3
hour window of thunder at all TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR initially,
but becoming MVFR at KOFK through the night. Gusty northwest winds
developing tomorrow morning, with a few showers in the vicinity of
KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
452 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-101200-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
452 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening. A few of these
storms may become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats. The potential is highest from
southeasternmost Nebraska into southwest Iowa.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

There will be a chance for thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday
night, and again from Friday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight or Monday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
826 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

NEZ043-050-051-100200-
Saunders NE-Butler NE-Colfax NE-
826 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for SOUTHERN COLFAX...EASTERN BUTLER
AND NORTHWESTERN SAUNDERS COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 825 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
David City, or 18 miles southeast of Columbus, moving east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wahoo, David City, Brainard, Weston, Prague, Octavia, Malmo, Bruno,
Linwood and Abie.

This includes Highway 92 IN Nebraska between mile markers 419 and
446.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 9713 4137 9722 4144 9678 4120 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 250DEG 38KT 4127 9707

KERN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
849 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             3 W DAYKIN              40.32N 97.35W
04/09/2017  E1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

VDEWALD