Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
619 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

Satellite-derived PW imagery and 00z upper-air data indicate a
plume of robust low-level moisture situated along a stalled
baroclinic zone from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest. The
southern/southwest extension of this moisture is surmounted by a
pronounced EML and associated capping inversion as depicted by 00z
soundings. Early-morning water vapor imagery indicates a weak
mid-level perturbation over the central High Plains which will
likely weaken as it continues northeast within a broader area of
building mid-level heights.

Given the strong cap and generally weak forcing, it is no surprise
that considerable variability exists in model guidance (both
explicit and parameterized) with respect to thunderstorm
potential through this afternoon. We will maintain slight-chance
PoPs along the surface front lifting north through northeast NE
today, and acknowledge the potential for isolated severe weather
conditional on storm initiation and sustenance.

The 00z models remain consistent in depicting the progression of
an upper low into the northern High Plains on Tuesday, while a
trailing vorticity lobe pivots across the mid MO Valley. In the
low levels, a trough or dryline-type boundary will advance across
NE, likely serving as the focus for thunderstorm development
across our area by late afternoon or early evening. Rich low-level
moisture collocated with steep lapse rates and a vertically
veering wind profile will favor severe storms, including
supercells, with all hazards possible. Please see the latest SPC
Day 2 Convective Outlook for additional guidance.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday along and ahead of the surface front edging east
through the forecast area.

As far as temperatures are concerned, the hot weather will
continue into at least mid week with afternoon readings in the mid
80s to lower to mid 90s. Yesterday's record warm low temperature
of 72 degrees at Norfolk was broken (73), and it's possible we
could see a repeat performance for the 12th.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

The mid-level low over the northern High Plains at the beginning
of the long-term forecast period is expected to drift north into
central Canada before accelerating northeast toward Hudson Bay
this weekend. This will result in initially zonal mid-level flow
across the mid MO Valley which will transition to northwesterly by
late this week into the coming weekend. In the low levels, we
will see a residual surface boundary lingering in the area during
the Wed-Fri time frame, prior to a more substantial cool front
moving through the mid MO Valley on Fri or Sat. By Sun into Mon,
we begin to see growing spread amongst model guidance with respect
to the evolution of the surface pattern.

As far as sensible weather is concerned, it appears that we will
see slightly cooler temperatures this weekend with periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms through much of the long-
term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

A cluster of strong to severe storms has recently developed near
KLNK, immediately downstream from a weak mid-level impulse
translating through the central Plains. These storms are removed
from the primary surface boundary, and model guidance has not
handled this situation well at all. As such, confidence remains
low on the areal coverage of thunderstorms today. Otherwise,
expect winds to increase from the south with periods of MVFR
ceilings.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Mead

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
510 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-130015-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
510 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible today, mainly
north of I-80. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazards. Otherwise, expect another hot day with heat
index values rising into the 95 to 100 degree range by afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

An upper-air disturbance and associated surface front will move
into the region on Tuesday, providing the focus for thunderstorms
during the late afternoon into evening hours. Conditions will be
favorable for severe weather in the form of large hail, damaging
winds, localized flooding and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain a possibility from
Wednesday into the weekend. No organized severe weather is
currently anticipated during that time frame.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should not be needed today or tonight.

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