River Flood Warning 18, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
300 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Two areas of ongoing convection this morning over central and
parts of eastern Nebraska. Covection over central Nebraska is
associated with a surface cold front and mid level trough from the
central Dakotas into northwest Kansas, while eastern Nebraska
convection associated with warm advection and overrunning of an
outflow boundary across southern Nebraska. IR satellite loops
show the colder cloud tops and stronger convection ahead of the
surface front and upper trough while cloud tops have in general been
warming across eastern Nebraska with isolated colder tops
developing now and then.

General trend will be for the surface front and upper trough to
move east today and tonight with rain chances increases for the
forecast area. Heavier rainfall is expected to focus more across
eastern and southern parts of the forecast area today as the
system moves through with less widespread heavy rainfall rates
for areas that received the heavy rain yesterday. Will cancel
flash flood watch currently in effect for northern parts of the
area a bit early, prior to this forecast issuance. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms may linger through this evening but
stronger forcing is expected to be east of the area with front
pushing into western Iowa by early this evening and showers ending
after midnight. Dry weather follows behind this system on
Thursday but another chance of rain enters the picture by late
Thursday night and Friday as another upper trough swings through
the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

First part of the period looks to be dry through Saturday before
some chance for more intermittent showers and storms return
Saturday night through Tuesday, although models differ on
solutions. Main concern will be for Monday the day of the
eclipse. No model consensus for that period at this time but some
potential for showers and thunderstorms and clouds of course as both
the GFS and EURO show a surface frontal boundary approaching the
area from the northern plains during the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
the TAF sites overnight and even into much of Wednesday morning.
Variable conditions will exist however prevailing VFR to MVFR is
expected.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
427 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

IAZ043-055-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-
088-089-162330-
Monona-Harrison-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-
Madison-Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Saline-Jefferson-
Gage-
427 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Periods of thunderstorms will continue across eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa today into this evening as a cold front moves
through the area. Isolated severe storms are possible, especially
this afternoon near the frontal boundary. Locally damaging winds
and large hail will be the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Chances for thunderstorms return to the area on Friday, continuing
on and off through Tuesday.

..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ068-090>093-162330-
Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-Otoe-Johnson-
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
427 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Periods of thunderstorms will continue across eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa today into this evening as a cold front moves
through the area. A few severe storms are possible, especially
this afternoon near the frontal boundary. Locally damaging winds
and large hail will be the primary hazards, with an isolated
tornado also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Chances for thunderstorms return to the area on Friday, continuing
on and off through Tuesday.

..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon or this evening.

Fobert