Small Craft Advisory 130, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
103 PM PDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably cool temperatures can be expected today
with a very gradual warming trend through Friday as a ridge
builds into our region. Outside of drizzle, dry weather the next
7 days with night and morning coastal clouds followed by sunny
afternoons is forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 1:03 PM PDT Tuesday...Visible satellite shows
the morning stratus continuing to clear out across most inland
areas. A few locations remain impacted with low clouds as of 1 pm
PDT, including San Francisco and Oakland Airports. The San
Francisco to Sacramento surface pressure gradient has increased
slightly from what it was at 24 hours ago (2.6 mb vs. 2.1 mb), and
the marine layer is a bit deeper between 2,000 and 2,500 ft.
Expect skies to continue to improve through the middle of the
afternoon.

Synoptically we still have an upper level high centered over Baja
California that is enabling hot and dry conditions to persist
over the southern third of the Golden State. Closer to our area,
temperatures are much cooler than they were several days ago with
zonal flow overhead and onshore flow. Expect temperatures to reach
the upper 50s to the low 70s along the coast, and 70s to middle
80s across the inland valleys and mountains. The Santa Lucia
Range, southern Salinas Valley, and Pinnacles National Park areas
will likely see temperatures max out in the upper 80s to the low
90s this afternoon.

On Wednesday temperatures will nudge upward a few degrees for most
inland areas as high pressure begins to rebuild over the West
Coast. This gradual warming trend will continue through Friday
with temperatures within a few degrees of normal for the end of
June. Coastal areas may see subtle warming through the end of the
week, but by only several degrees at most. Models are advertising
a short wave trough to push onshore for the weekend that would
bring some cooling to the area. Aside the isolated coastal drizzle
associated with morning marine stratus, dry conditions are
expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:43 AM PDT Tuesday...For 18z Tafs. Marine
layer continues to erode across the district at this hour. Skies
should be CLR or FEW by 1830z at all taf sites, give/take a few
minutes. The only exceptions seems to be OAK and possibly SFO,
with visible satellite showing thick stratus continuing to flow
over the terminals. May have to adjust clear times at both
locations if trends persist. SFO approach should remain clear. VFR
at all terminals by early afternoon. Breezy onshore winds today,
15-20 kt, potentially gusty at times. Cigs return tonight.

Moderate confidence.

Vicinity of KSFO...IFR cigs continue over SFO through at least
18Z, perhaps later, eventually yielding to VFR. Will have to
monitor satellite/obs and AMD if necessary. Westerly winds
increasing around 20 kt this afternoon. MVFR to IFR cigs return
tonight, around 04-06z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Approach remains clear. Should maintain
visuals through the afternoon and early evening.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR cigs quickly clearing around MRY.
Should be CLR at all Monterey Bay terminals by 18-1830z. Breezy
and occasionally gusty west winds 12-14kt this afternoon. Early
return of stratus for MRY, around 03z, and SNS around 06z.

&&

.MARINE...as of 01:00 PM PDT Tuesday...Northerly winds will
continue to increase over the waters and bays, especially the
near-coast waters, today as high pressure remains  over the
Eastern Pacific. Winds will increase over all waters on
Wednesday. A dominant southerly swell will persist into Wednesday
morning.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: Rowe
AVIATION: BAM
MARINE: BAM

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