River Flood Warning 1, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

143 
WGUS86 KMTR 081141
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
340 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
California...

  Carmel River at Robles Del Rio
  Guadalupe River above Alamaden Expressway
  Napa River near St Helena

Enhanced precipitation is expected to continue today as the cold
front develops behind the warm rain processes that continue move
through the Bay Area and Central Coast. Flooding is still expected
later today on the Carmel River, Guadalupe River, and Napa River
near St. Helena.

CAC053-091140-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0003.170109T0140Z-000000T0000Z/
/RDRC1.1.ER.170109T0140Z.170109T0300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
340 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

...Flood Warning extended until FURTHER NOTICE...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Carmel River at Robles Del Rio
* From this evening until 4 am local time Monday morning
* At 03AM Sunday the stage was 4.9 feet
* Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 9.2 feet by this evening.
* At 10.0 feet...The south side of Highway 1 bridge access in Carmel 
  will be flooded and impassable. Many low lying homes along the 
  entire Carmel River will have minor flooding. Low lying homes near 
  Camp Stephani will have moderate flooding. Homes near Schulte Road 
  will have minor flooding. Homes surrounding the Carmel Lagoon area 
  will have minor flooding.
* At 9.0 feet...Low lying homes from Camp Stephani to below Robles 
  del Rio will have minor flooding. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel 
  begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 12193 3652 12176 3640 12154 3637 12167
      3649 12179 3652 12193       

$$

CAC085-090712-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0001.170108T2225Z-170109T0712Z/
/GUDC1.1.ER.170108T2225Z.170109T0000Z.170109T0112Z.UU/
340 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Guadalupe River above Alamaden Expressway
* From this afternoon until this evening
* At 03AM Sunday the stage was 4.2 feet
* Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 14.2 feet by this afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by this evening.
* At 13.0 feet...Minor Flood Stage. Flooding begins upstream of 
  W.Alma Ave on east bank near the Elks Lodge. At higher stages, Alma
  Ave underpass beneath CA-87 and the Belmont Ave neighborhood will 
  likely flood. Ross Creek begins to flood near Jarvis and Cherry 
  Ave. At slightly higher stages, Ross Creek will continue to flood 
  northward along surface streets, possibly reaching north of Capitol
  Expwy/Hillsdale Ave. Canoas Creek may break out near Nightingale 
  Drive, spreading north and south at the confluence area.
* At 10.0 feet...Monitor Stage.  SCVWD may choose to deploy flood 
  abatement measures at the I-280 underpass to protect downtown San 
  Jose. WSE of 142 NAVD88, 2916 cfs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3732 12188 3726 12183 3719 12184 3724 12195
      3727 12190 3732 12188       

$$

CAC055-091140-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0002.170108T1944Z-170109T1646Z/
/SHEC1.3.ER.170108T1944Z.170108T2300Z.170109T0446Z.NR/
340 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Napa River near St Helena
* From around noon today until Monday morning
* At 03AM Sunday the stage was 7.3 feet
* Moderate flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by around noon today and continue 
  to rise to near 18.9 feet by this afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by late this evening.
* At 19.0 feet...Major flooding across upper Napa Valley making all 
  travel nearly impossible. Major to disastrous flooding affecting 
  all towns in the reach.
* At 18.0 feet...Moderate flooding across lower areas of towns along 
  the reach. Widespread crop losses and erosion of land. Many primary
  and most secondary roads will flood, making travel difficult to 
  nearly impossible in some areas.
* At 16.0 feet...Minor flooding will occur along the entire reach 
  including the lowest areas of towns along the reach. Many rural 
  areas including some primary roads and many secondary roads will 
  have minor flooding.


&&

LAT...LON 3860 12265 3865 12262 3849 12239 3843 12244
      3852 12253 3860 12265       

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.








The next statement will be issued by 10 am or 
sooner as conditions warrant.

&&

479 
WGUS86 KMTR 081753
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
953 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
California...

  Carmel River at Robles Del Rio

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
California...
  Guadalupe River above Alamaden Expressway
  Napa River near St Helena
  Napa River near Napa
  Russian River at Johnsons Beach near Guerneville


.Morederate to heavy rain is possible at times today which may lead
to local flooding including along some of our rivers.

CAC053-081823-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170108T1753Z/
/RDRC1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
953 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Carmel River at Robles Del Rio
* Until Wednesday December 31
* At 09AM Sunday the stage was 4.9 feet
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet
* At 9.0 feet...Low lying homes from Camp Stephani to below Robles 
  del Rio will have minor flooding. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel 
  begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 12193 3652 12176 3640 12154 3637 12167
      3649 12179 3652 12193       

$$

CAC085-090605-
/O.CON.KMTR.FL.W.0001.170108T2356Z-170109T0605Z/
/GUDC1.1.ER.170108T2356Z.170109T0000Z.170109T0005Z.UU/
953 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Guadalupe River above Alamaden Expressway
* From this afternoon until this evening
* At 09AM Sunday the stage was 4.3 feet
* Nonflood flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 13.1 feet by this afternoon.the river will fall 
  below flood stage by this afternoon.
* At 13.0 feet...Minor Flood Stage. Flooding begins upstream of 
  W.Alma Ave on east bank near the Elks Lodge. At higher stages, Alma
  Ave underpass beneath CA-87 and the Belmont Ave neighborhood will 
  likely flood. Ross Creek begins to flood near Jarvis and Cherry 
  Ave. At slightly higher stages, Ross Creek will continue to flood 
  northward along surface streets, possibly reaching north of Capitol
  Expwy/Hillsdale Ave. Canoas Creek may break out near Nightingale 
  Drive, spreading north and south at the confluence area.
* At 10.0 feet...Monitor Stage.  SCVWD may choose to deploy flood 
  abatement measures at the I-280 underpass to protect downtown San 
  Jose. WSE of 142 NAVD88, 2916 cfs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3732 12188 3726 12183 3719 12184 3724 12195
      3727 12190 3732 12188       

$$

CAC055-091624-
/O.CON.KMTR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170109T1624Z/
/SHEC1.3.ER.170108T1656Z.170108T2300Z.170109T0424Z.NR/
953 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Napa River near St Helena
* Until Monday morning
* At 09AM Sunday the stage was 16.4 feet
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 19.7 feet by this afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage late this evening.
* At 20.0 feet...Disastrous flooding across upper Napa Valley making 
  travel essentially impossible.
* At 19.0 feet...Major flooding across upper Napa Valley making all 
  travel nearly impossible. Major to disastrous flooding affecting 
  all towns in the reach.
* At 18.0 feet...Moderate flooding across lower areas of towns along 
  the reach. Widespread crop losses and erosion of land. Many primary
  and most secondary roads will flood, making travel difficult to 
  nearly impossible in some areas.
* At 16.0 feet...Minor flooding will occur along the entire reach 
  including the lowest areas of towns along the reach. Many rural 
  areas including some primary roads and many secondary roads will 
  have minor flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 12265 3865 12262 3849 12239 3843 12244
      3852 12253 3860 12265       

$$

CAC055-091753-
/O.CON.KMTR.FL.W.0004.170108T2340Z-170109T2222Z/
/APCC1.2.ER.170108T2340Z.170109T0400Z.170109T1022Z.NO/
953 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Napa River near Napa
* From this afternoon until Monday afternoon
* At 09AM Sunday the stage was 20.3 feet
* Nonflood flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 26.7 feet by late this evening.the river will fall 
  below flood stage by early tomorrow morning.
* At 27.0 feet...In the City of Napa, moderate flooding begins on the
  east side of Napa River near Milliken Creek Inn.
* At 26.0 feet...Moderate flooding.  In the City of Napa, flow begins
  to leave the Napa River channel in the South Coombs area (north of 
  Imola Avenue) and the south oxbow (near Taylor Street). Crop losses
  and erosion damage become serious. Moderate flood damage in lower 
  parts of urban areas along the reach. Transportation in the Napa 
  Valley becoming difficult. The flood of 2/3/1998 measured 26.72 
  feet.
* At 25.0 feet...Flood Stage. Flooding of lowest parts of towns in 
  reach begins.  Inundation of lowest agricultural land in Napa 
  Valley.  Some secondary roads are inundated.  Moderate damage from 
  bank erosion and sediment deposition throughout the reach.
* At 24.0 feet...In the City of Napa, flow begins to leave the Napa 
  River channel at Riverpointe (north of Lincoln Avenue).
* At 22.0 feet...Monitor Stage. In the City of Napa, the Napa River 
  Dry Bypass is fully inundated and flow begins to cross McKinstry 
  Street.
* At 20.0 feet...Erosion of lowest agricultural areas along river 
  begins.


&&

LAT...LON 3845 12246 3849 12239 3832 12225 3810 12227
      3814 12239 3834 12237       

$$

CAC097-091753-
/O.CON.KMTR.FL.W.0005.170109T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/GUEC1.2.ER.170109T0800Z.170109T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
953 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Russian River at Johnsons Beach near Guerneville
* From  until FURTHER NOTICE
* At 09AM Sunday the stage was 20.2 feet
* Nonflood flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage and continue to rise to near
  36.4 feet by late tomorrow morning. additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 37.0 feet...In Forestville Mirabel Road at River Road floods. In
  Guerneville River Road east of Guerneville floods. Mill Street and 
  5th Street flood. In Monte Rio River Blvd east of Monte Rio floods.
* At 36.0 feet...In Forestville Mirabel Park Resort and Mirabel 
  trailer park flood. In Guerneville Fern Road at HWY 116 floods.
* At 35.0 feet...Moderate flooding is forecast along the lower 
  Russian River. Numerous businesses and residences in the lowest 
  sections of towns within the reach are expected to flood. In 
  Guerneville Brookside Resort begins to flood. More extensive 
  flooding occurs at Parkers Resort. In Northwood lower Redwood Drive
  floods.
* At 34.0 feet...In Guerneville flooding begins at Johnsons Resort, 
  Parkers Resort, Creekside Resort and Riverside Park. In Northwood 
  lower Redwood Drive begins to flood.
* At 33.0 feet...In Guerneville the intersection of HWY 116 and Drake
  Rd is closed. In Monte Rio Willow and Alder Streets flood. In 
  Forestville Mirabel trailer park begins to flood.
* At 32.5 feet...In Guerneville the intersecton of HWY 116 and Neeley
  Rd is closed. Mays Canyon Rd by the old rodeo grounds is closed.
* At 32.0 feet...Flood stage. Minor flooding. Lower Mill Street in 
  Guerneville and Old Bohemian Highway in Monte Rio are expected to 
  flood.
* At 29.0 feet...Monitor stage.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.








The next statement will be issued by 3 pm today or 
sooner as conditions warrant.

&&

569 
WGUS86 KMTR 081947
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
1147 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
California...

  Guadalupe River above Alamaden Expressway

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
California...
  Napa River near St Helena
  Napa River near Napa
  Russian River at Johnsons Beach near Guerneville


Additional rainfall is likely throughout our region into tonight.
This could lead to flooding along local streams and rivers.

CAC085-082017-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170109T0605Z/
/GUDC1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1147 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Guadalupe River above Alamaden Expressway
* At 11AM Sunday the stage was 4.5 feet
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet
* At 10.0 feet...Monitor Stage.  SCVWD may choose to deploy flood 
  abatement measures at the I-280 underpass to protect downtown San 
  Jose. WSE of 142 NAVD88, 2916 cfs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3732 12188 3726 12183 3719 12184 3724 12195
      3727 12190 3732 12188       

$$

CAC055-091624-
/O.CON.KMTR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170109T1624Z/
/SHEC1.3.ER.170108T1656Z.170108T2300Z.170109T0424Z.NR/
1147 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Napa River near St Helena
* Until Monday morning
* At 11AM Sunday the stage was 17.4 feet
* Minor flooding is occurring
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 19.7 feet by this afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage late this evening.
* At 20.0 feet...Disastrous flooding across upper Napa Valley making 
  travel essentially impossible.
* At 19.0 feet...Major flooding across upper Napa Valley making all 
  travel nearly impossible. Major to disastrous flooding affecting 
  all towns in the reach.
* At 18.0 feet...Moderate flooding across lower areas of towns along 
  the reach. Widespread crop losses and erosion of land. Many primary
  and most secondary roads will flood, making travel difficult to 
  nearly impossible in some areas.
* At 16.0 feet...Minor flooding will occur along the entire reach 
  including the lowest areas of towns along the reach. Many rural 
  areas including some primary roads and many secondary roads will 
  have minor flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 12265 3865 12262 3849 12239 3843 12244
      3852 12253 3860 12265       

$$

CAC055-091947-
/O.CON.KMTR.FL.W.0004.170108T2340Z-170109T2222Z/
/APCC1.2.ER.170108T2340Z.170109T0400Z.170109T1022Z.NO/
1147 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Napa River near Napa
* From this afternoon until Monday afternoon
* At 11AM Sunday the stage was 22.4 feet
* Moderate flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 26.7 feet by late this evening.the river will fall 
  below flood stage by early tomorrow morning.
* At 27.0 feet...In the City of Napa, moderate flooding begins on the
  east side of Napa River near Milliken Creek Inn.
* At 26.0 feet...Moderate flooding.  In the City of Napa, flow begins
  to leave the Napa River channel in the South Coombs area (north of 
  Imola Avenue) and the south oxbow (near Taylor Street). Crop losses
  and erosion damage become serious. Moderate flood damage in lower 
  parts of urban areas along the reach. Transportation in the Napa 
  Valley becoming difficult. The flood of 2/3/1998 measured 26.72 
  feet.
* At 25.0 feet...Flood Stage. Flooding of lowest parts of towns in 
  reach begins.  Inundation of lowest agricultural land in Napa 
  Valley.  Some secondary roads are inundated.  Moderate damage from 
  bank erosion and sediment deposition throughout the reach.
* At 24.0 feet...In the City of Napa, flow begins to leave the Napa 
  River channel at Riverpointe (north of Lincoln Avenue).
* At 22.0 feet...Monitor Stage. In the City of Napa, the Napa River 
  Dry Bypass is fully inundated and flow begins to cross McKinstry 
  Street.
* At 20.0 feet...Erosion of lowest agricultural areas along river 
  begins.


&&

LAT...LON 3845 12246 3849 12239 3832 12225 3810 12227
      3814 12239 3834 12237       

$$

CAC097-091947-
/O.CON.KMTR.FL.W.0005.170109T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/GUEC1.2.ER.170109T0800Z.170109T1900Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1147 AM PST SUN JAN 8 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Russian River at Johnsons Beach near Guerneville
* From  until FURTHER NOTICE
* At 11AM Sunday the stage was 22.4 feet
* Moderate flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage and continue to rise to near
  36.9 feet by near tomorrow noon. Additional rises are possible.
* At 37.0 feet...In Forestville Mirabel Road at River Road floods. In
  Guerneville River Road east of Guerneville floods. Mill Street and 
  5th Street flood. In Monte Rio River Blvd east of Monte Rio floods.
* At 36.0 feet...In Forestville Mirabel Park Resort and Mirabel 
  trailer park flood. In Guerneville Fern Road at HWY 116 floods.
* At 35.0 feet...Moderate flooding is forecast along the lower 
  Russian River. Numerous businesses and residences in the lowest 
  sections of towns within the reach are expected to flood. In 
  Guerneville Brookside Resort begins to flood. More extensive 
  flooding occurs at Parkers Resort. In Northwood lower Redwood Drive
  floods.
* At 34.0 feet...In Guerneville flooding begins at Johnsons Resort, 
  Parkers Resort, Creekside Resort and Riverside Park. In Northwood 
  lower Redwood Drive begins to flood.
* At 33.0 feet...In Guerneville the intersection of HWY 116 and Drake
  Rd is closed. In Monte Rio Willow and Alder Streets flood. In 
  Forestville Mirabel trailer park begins to flood.
* At 32.5 feet...In Guerneville the intersecton of HWY 116 and Neeley
  Rd is closed. Mays Canyon Rd by the old rodeo grounds is closed.
* At 32.0 feet...Flood stage. Minor flooding. Lower Mill Street in 
  Guerneville and Old Bohemian Highway in Monte Rio are expected to 
  flood.
* At 29.0 feet...Monitor stage.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.








The next statement will be issued by 3 PM today or 
sooner as conditions warrant.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
429 PM PST Sat Jan 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Rain is expected to ramp up overnight as the moisture
plume takes aim at the central coast and the San Francisco Bay
Area. Gusty winds will continue overnight and through much of the
day tomorrow. Some areas may see a lull in the wind activity this
afternoon before the main rain event moves over the area this
evening and then overnight into Sunday with periods of heavy rain.
Rain will slowly taper off from north to south by early Monday
morning. Showers to linger on Monday with cooler temperatures
before warm advection rains start Monday night into Tuesday as the
next rain storm moves onshore. The Tuesday system will be colder
and not as wet as the current system. The weather pattern remains
active with another system possible by late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 2:42 PM PST Sunday...Latest radar loops are
showing some increase in rain activity over the Big Sur coast at
this time, with scattered showers showing up across other areas.
Latest model guidance has the heavier precip starting by this
evening over coastal Monterey County, then spreading it farther
north over the rest of the cwa by Sunday morning. Periods of heavy
rain are expected through the day before finally tapering off
during the early Monday morning hours. Rainfall totals are still
expected to be in the 8-12 inch range across the coastal hills,
with 2-4 inches expected in lower elevations. The flash flood
watch has been expanded to include the city of San Francisco, as
well as the Big Sur Coast and southern Monterey Bay. Due to the
copious moisture source of around 1.5 tpw and relatively slow
movement of the heavy rain band, we do expect many rivers and
streams to reach or exceed bankfull as we head through Sunday
afternoon and evening. Please pay attention to the products issued
if you live near rivers such as the Napa, Russian and San Lorenzo.
Even the Pajaro and Carmel rivers which haven't flooded in years
may get close by Monday with serious rises on the Big Sur river as
well. In addition, there could be areas of coastal flooding due to
high tides Sunday morning. These combined with runoff and heavy
rains will likely cause issues.

Gusty southeast winds will persist tonight and tomorrow. Have went
ahead and extended current high wind warnings and advisories to
continue until Sunday afternoon. There may be some lulls in winds
during this afternoon and early this evening, but given the NAM12
925 mb wind speeds forecast for the area for tomorrow (in some
cases in excess of 60 knots!) felt it was prudent to keep the NPW
going.

The Storm Prediction Center has included our CWA in a convective
outlook with general thunderstorms for Sunday, thus, have added a
slight chance of thunderstorms for all areas for the daytime
Sunday. Current lightning detection networks are showing a lot of
lighting over the coastal waters near 30N/132W, so this seems
reasonable.

Cooler temperatures are expected on Monday behind the AR with
some lingering showers. The next system is expected to move in
quickly with warm advection rains starting Monday night into
Tuesday. This next system will be much cooler and be coming from
the northwest and therefore not quite as wet. Even so, there will
likely still be hydro issues from this system due to saturated
soil conditions.

Rain could linger into Weds morning, then high pressure is progged
to briefly build in over the west for a drying trend for a day or
two. Another system could arrive late in the week, but latest
medium range models aren't indicating this one will be very
strong. However, unsettled conditions are expected to persist
through the next 10 days, per long-range outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:30 PM PST Saturday...MVFR cigs through
Sunday. Latest hi-res models bring moderate to heavy rain into the
SFO and MRY Bay Area after 06Z with vsbys dropping at times to 1-3
miles. Moderate to heavy rains continue through Sunday afternoon
before tapering off from north to south. Winds were gusting to 40
kt this morning but have decreased slightly this afternoon.
However Wind gusts can be expected to pick up to 40-45 kt again
when the heavier rains arrive.

Vicinity of KSFO....MVFR cigs. Light rain becoming moderate to
heavy after 06Z. Southeast winds 15-20 kt gusting to 30 kt
increasing to 25-30 kt gusting to 40 kt after 10Z with low level
wind shear.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Cigs still at or above 4000 feet this
afternoon due to rain shadow effects. Moisture over the Santa
Lucias will finally spread rain into the MRY Bay Area after 03Z
with cigs lowering to MVFR. South to southeast winds 15-20 kt
gusting to 25 kt increasing to 25-30 kt with gusts to 40 kt in the
Salinas Valley with low level wind shear.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many creeks and rivers are expected to flood with
this weekend's storm. With much of the rainfall expected to
strongly influence the coastal ranges from Sonoma County down
through Monterey County, expect Coast Range drainages to be hit
hard and with the first pulse of strong rain late Saturday.
Smaller creeks will likely crest in the overnight hours of
Sat/Sun. Larger rivers such as the Russian, Napa, Guadalupe,
Carmel, and Pajaro will crest on Sunday or Monday. At this point,
forecast simulations of streamflow put the following forecast
locations above flood stage this weekend/early next week: Russian
River in Guerneville, Napa River near St. Helena, and San Lorenzo
River in Felton. It is likely that many tributaries to both the
Russian and Napa Rivers will flood as well. Other creeks and
rivers in the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Mountains will
likely flood...stay tuned for specific information in Flash Flood
Watches, Warnings and Advisories for detailed information on flood
prone locations.

It is also likely that burn scars such as the Loma and Soberanes
will experience debris flows where rainfall rates exceed 1" per
hour. We expect these rates to develop, possibly overnight
Saturday and into Sunday. Debris flows, mudslides, and general
road-cut slope instability is highly likely in Coast Range
mountain settings outside the burn scars, although exact timing,
magnitude, and location is impossible to predict. Take heed of
local Public Works, Emergency Management, and CHP notifications to
steer clear of these areas.

Widespread urban flooding is expected from excessive rainfall,
clogged storm drains, and backwatered drainage systems. Avoid
driving through flooded roadways, and adhere to all road hazard
notifications. Drive slowly to avoid hydroplaning.

&&

.MARINE...as of 9:03 AM PST Saturday...Strong southerly gale
force winds sustained to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt expected
through this afternoon. A brief lull in the winds is expected
later today before the strongest winds arrive late tonight into
early Sunday. Steep fresh wind waves will maintain choppy
unsettled sea conditions.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...Wind Advisory...CAZ006-505-508-509-513-528>530
             Flash Flood Watch...CAZ006-508-509-512-513-529
             Flash Flood Watch...CAZ505>507
             High Wind Warning...CAZ507-511-512-517
             Flash Flood Watch...CAZ517-530
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 PM
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 PM
             GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay
             SCA...Mry Bay until 3 AM
             GLW...Mry Bay from 3 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: CW

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
112 PM PST SAT JAN 7 2017

CAZ006-505>513-516>518-528>530-082115-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND THE DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/ARROYO SECO AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY
INCLUDING PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/HOLLISTER VALLEY AND CARMEL VALLEY-
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
112 PM PST SAT JAN 7 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS SLATED TO AFFECT THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA AND THE CENTRAL COAST THIS WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS
SOME INLAND VALLEYS. SEE SFONPWMTR WWUS76 KMTR FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL
AS SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEE SFOFFAMTR WGUS55 KMTR FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE UPWARDS
OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL AS SOME
COASTAL AREAS. SEE SFOFFAMTR WGUS55 KMTR FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEE SFOFFAMTR WGUS55 KMTR FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER STORM IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
421 PM PST SAT JAN 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG OAKLAND                 37.77N 122.22W
01/07/2017                   ALAMEDA            CA   PUBLIC

            DOWNED TREE BLOCKING 3 LANES ON SB HIGHWAY 13 IN OAKLAND
            NEAR REDWOOD ROAD.

&&

ASCHNEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
535 PM PST SAT JAN 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BEN LOMOND              37.10N 122.08W
01/07/2017                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE TOPPLES ONTO POWER LINE IN BEN LOMOND. 217 WITHOUT
            POWER.

&&

WPI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
615 PM PST SAT JAN 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SAN RAMON               37.76N 121.95W
01/07/2017  E0 MPH           CONTRA COSTA       CA   NEWSPAPER

            A WOMAN WALKING ON THE SAN RAMON GOLF COURSE WAS STRUCK
            AND KILLED BY A FALLING TREE. OFFICIALS SAY THE TREE WAS
            DESTABILIZED BY STORM-SOAKED SOIL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

BBENJAMI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
615 PM PST SAT JAN 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SAN RAMON               37.76N 121.95W
01/07/2017  E30 MPH           CONTRA COSTA       CA   NEWSPAPER

            A WOMAN WALKING ON THE SAN RAMON GOLF COURSE WAS STRUCK
            AND KILLED BY A FALLING TREE. OFFICIALS SAY THE TREE WAS
            DESTABILIZED BY STORM-SOAKED SOIL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

BBENJAMI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
846 PM PST SAT JAN 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WNW BIG SUR VILLAGE   36.30N 121.88W
01/07/2017                   MONTEREY           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0819 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE MARINA            36.67N 121.77W
01/07/2017                   MONTEREY           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COVERING RESERVATION ROAD.

0826 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NW PRUNEDALE          36.83N 121.69W
01/07/2017                   MONTEREY           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OAK TREE DOWN ACROSS ENTIRE ROADWAY

0826 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 W MILL VALLEY         37.90N 122.60W
01/07/2017                   MARIN              CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOCKING ROADWAY APPROX 7 MI FROM HWY 1

&&

MMEHLE