Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

502 
WGUS76 KMTR 202132
FFSMTR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
132 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

CAC087-202142-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FF.W.0058.000000T0000Z-170220T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz CA-
132 PM PST MON FEB 20 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

Water levels on Corralitos Creek have temporarily receded and
remainbelow flood levels. At this point in time the Flash Flood
Warning isbeing cancelled.  However, rejuvenation of rainfall that
is expectedlater today could cause water levels to rise again,
promptingadditional Flash Flood Warnings.  Please continue to heed
anyremaining road closures and safety guidance.

LAT...LON 3691 12170 3692 12170 3692 12171 3694 12180
      3698 12183 3703 12181 3702 12176 3692 12166
      3691 12168

$$

MWS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
334 AM PST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High impact event unfolding across the region this
Monday morning and will likely persist through the afternoon hours
as an atmospheric river takes aim at the central California coast.
Periods of heavy rainfall are expected, especially along the coastal
ranges, along with strong and gusty southerly winds through this
evening. These conditions will likely result in widespread flooding,
downed trees and power lines resulting in isolated to widespread
power outages. Flooding of area creeks, streams and low lying,
poorly drained areas can also be expected as well as rises on main-
stem rivers. The threat for rock/mud slides, shallow landslides and
debris flows in recent burn scar areas will also increase during the
next 12 to 24 hours. Rainfall and winds will taper off late tonight
into Tuesday. Cool and somewhat drier weather conditions are
expected during the second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 02:34 AM PST Monday...While the arrival of a
much anticipated atmospheric (AR) river was delayed slightly,
widespread rainfall now spreading across the entire region this
morning with satellite derived PWAT values of 1.5" approaching the
Central Coast. Thus, over the past few hours moderate to locally
heavy rainfall has spread inland across the region with even a few
lightning strikes offshore and across the North Bay. At times,
rainfall rates have reached between 0.33" to 0.50"/hr with this
trend likely to continue through 4 AM PST. The latest forecast
models continue to indicate a band of heavy rainfall will develop
and become more narrow in focus somewhere between San Francisco
and the Big Sur coast. At this point, rainfall rates in excess of
0.50"/hr and potentially as much as 1.00"/hr will be possible,
especially along the southwest facing slopes, which will greatly
increased the threat for flooding and flash flooding where/when
this boundary stalls. Current thinking is that the San Mateo and
Santa Cruz coast and points inland may be hardest hit through the
morning hours. However, given the rapidly developing nature of
this system, a jog north or south remains possible and thus
current trends will need to be closely monitored through the
morning. For additional information, feel free to read the latest
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion from the WPC:
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=00
60&yr=2017

Southerly winds out ahead of this system have also increased early
this morning with gusts in excess of 45 MPH over the Pacific and in
the highest peaks across the region. Expecting these winds to
further intensify through the afternoon and evening as surface low
pressure deepens offshore and races toward northern California/
southwest Oregon. Wind gusts of 60 MPH or greater will be possible
this afternoon and evening, mainly in elevations above 1000 feet and
along the coastal ranges. Downed trees and power lines will likely
result in isolated to widespread power outages through the day.
Thus, a High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory remain in effect through
late tonight.

A Flood Watch also remains in effect for the entire region through
tonight given the intense rainfall forecast over already saturated
soils. The combination of heavy rainfall and strong winds will also
result in an increased threat for rock/mud slides, shallow
landslides and debris flows in recent burn scar areas through this
afternoon. Through early Tuesday morning, storm total rainfall
amounts of 1.50-2.00" will be possible for inland San Benito and
Monterey County with amounts less than 1.00" possible in the rain
shadowed valley locations. Santa Clara Valley, also rain shadowed
can expect between 1.25-3.00" (higher amounts closer to the
foothills and lesser possible in downtown San Jose). Inland East
Bay, San Francisco Bay Shoreline, and North Bay Valley areas can
expect 2.25-3.50", locally higher if the heavy band of precipitation
makes a shift to the north. Big Sur and East Bay peaks and ranges,
4.00-7.00", Coastal North Bay 3.00-5.00", Coastal Santa Cruz and San
Mateo ridges, 5.00-10.00", again locally higher depending on
if/when/where the band of heaviest precipitation stalls.

The AR and frontal boundary will then shift southward this afternoon
as the aforementioned surface low off of the coast shifts inland
well to our north and the main mid/upper level low deepens off of
the Pacific Northwest coast.  In wake of the frontal passage, light
to occasionally moderate precipitation will persist along the
southwest facing slopes while diminishing over inland valley
locations. With the arrive of mid/upper level support and a colder
air mass aloft, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible from
late tonight into Tuesday morning. While organized, heavy rainfall
will tapper off on Tuesday during the day, lingering showers will
remain possible into Wednesday morning as the trough axis shifts
inland across the region.

Cooler and drier conditions are forecast from Wednesday into early
Friday as a weak ridge builds in behind the exiting trough. Late in
the week and into the upcoming weekend, forecast models continue to
differ yet show the potential for cool, unsettled weather
conditions. However, widespread, heavy rainfall is not currently
anticipated with this colder system given the lack of a deep
moisture tap. Stay tuned for the latest!

&&

.AVIATION...As of 3:34 AM PST Sunday...Strong southerly winds
spreading from the coastal waters to over land early this morning
with the passage of a strong warm front from the eastern Pacific.
Area metars indicating mostly de-coupled surface winds while winds
aloft are southerly at 30-40 knots. Once the warm front clears the
area this morning a newly re-generating front will set up WSW-ENE
across the Bay Area this morning eventually coupling with a slowly
approaching cold front from the west causing winds to steepen
through the day. WRF model forecasts up to 60 knots SW wind at the
925 mb level (approx 2500 feet) this afternoon and evening over
the Bay Area. Thus, potential for long duration low level wind
shear at least this morning, quite likely redeveloping again this
afternoon and evening. Otherwise MVFR cigs/vsbys and areas IFR in
downpours.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cig/vsby, heavy rain and wind today through
this evening. IFR possible at times in downpours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs/vsbys, heavy rain and wind
today through this evening. IFR possible at times in downpours.

&&

.MARINE...as of 2:55 AM PST Monday...A strong warm front with heavy
rain...wind and possible additional widely scattered thunderstorms
is moving rapidly eastward across the coastal waters and bays early
this morning. Extensively moist air originating from the subtropics
will become firmly entrenched across the entire area today. A cold
front over the eastern Pacific will move slowly in from the west
passing through the Bay Area this evening and the North Central
Coast by midnight. Gales are expected today with possible storm
force gusts over the bays later today. Marginally large swell
today over the coastal waters will result in hazardous seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...High Wind Warning...Higher terrain Bay Area to Monterey
			 and San Benito counties.
             Flood Watch...Entire forecast area.
             Wind Advisory...Entire forecast area.
             GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
             SCA...Mry Bay until 1 PM
             GLW...Mry Bay from 1 PM
             SCA...SF Bay until 7 AM
             GLW...SF Bay from 7 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION/MARINE: Canepa

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
748 AM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 AM     FLOOD            2 W LEVI STADIUM        37.41N 122.00W
02/20/2017                   SANTA CLARA        CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ABOUT 1 FT OF WATER ON HWY 237 AT CARIBBEAN OFF RAMP

&&

BBENJAMI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
805 AM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     FLOOD            4 S CORRALITOS          36.94N 121.81W
02/20/2017                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BUENA VISTA DRIVE TO BE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. VEHICLES
            UNABLE TO PASS

0726 AM     FLOOD            2 N DALY CITY           37.71N 122.47W
02/20/2017                   SAN FRANCISCO      CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADWAY FLOODING ON I280 AT JOHN DALY BLVD

0736 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 E MOSS LANDING        36.80N 121.70W
02/20/2017                   MONTEREY           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE AND WIRES IN CASTROVILLE BLVD BETWEEN PARADISE AND
            ARCHER

0736 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 N SALINAS             36.73N 121.63W
02/20/2017                   MONTEREY           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROGGE RD

0747 AM     FLOOD            4 NNW BERKELEY          37.92N 122.32W
02/20/2017                   CONTRA COSTA       CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 FT OF WATER IN PORTRERO ON RAMP TO I80

&&

BBENJAMI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
839 AM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     FLOOD            8 W TRACY               37.75N 121.57W
02/20/2017                   ALAMEDA            CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EAST BOUND LANE OF MOUNTAIN HOUES ROAD AT GRANT LINE RD
            FLOODED

0822 AM     FLOOD            5 SW AT&T PARK          37.72N 122.45W
02/20/2017                   SAN FRANCISCO      CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            APPROX 2 FT OF WATER ACROSS GENEVA ON RAMP TO I280

&&

BBENJAMI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
845 AM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      6 NE MOSS LANDING       36.85N 121.71W
02/20/2017                   MONTEREY           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TRERE AND MUDSLIDE BLOCKING WHOLE ROAD...LIVE OAK RD AT
            MCGINNIS RD

0836 AM     FLOOD            4 NW ROHNERT PARK       38.39N 122.74W
02/20/2017                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ENTIRE ROADWAY FLOODED TODD RD AT STONY POINT RD

&&

BBENJAMI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
854 AM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      5 SSW SALINAS           36.63N 121.68W
02/20/2017                   MONTEREY           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 FT DEEP MUD OVER BOTH LANES RIVER RD AT HWY 68

&&

BBENJAMI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
903 AM PST MON FEB 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 11 SE PLASKETT CREEK CA 35.80N 121.35W
02/20/2017                   MONTEREY           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN OVER HWY 1 AT MM47

&&

BBENJAMI