Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
912 PM PST Sun Jan 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Rain will gradually taper off from north to south
overnight...but with rain chances continuing on Monday especially
over the northern half of our area. Precipitation is then
expected to start increasing again in the north Monday evening as
the next Pacific weather system approaches. Moderate to locally
heavy rain will again spread southward over the area Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Unsettled weather conditions along with a cooling
trend are projected for Wednesday and Thursday then drier for the
end of the week and the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 09:11 PM PST Sunday...Lingering showers
persist over the region this evening with the heavier showers
moving through the Santa Cruz Mountains inland into the East Bay
Hills. Meanwhile, precipitation continues yet is diminishing over
the North Bay at this hour as drier air filters in behind the main
system which is shifting southward. Do expect rainfall rates to
remain around a few hundredths of an inch per hour upwards to
around 0.25"/hr in the coastal ranges and San Cruz Mountains. Do
expect these to continue to tapper off through the night. As such,
the threat for flash flooding continues to diminish and most
rivers/creeks are beginning to slowly recede. However, given the
ongoing precipitation, will keep the Flash Flood Watch posted as
is with them dropping off from north to south through the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 04:30 PM PST Sunday...Light to moderate rain
continues to impact a good portion of the region this afternoon
with locally heavy rainfall at times from the San Mateo Coast
through the Santa Cruz Mountains and then southward down the
coastal ranges of Monterey County. Meanwhile, rainfall continues
region-wide with generally lighter precipitation north of San
Francisco. Looking at the latest satellite imagery and high-
resolution models, another around or two of locally heavy rainfall
will possible through the evening mainly from the Santa Cruz
Mountains southward. Meanwhile, lingering precipitation will be
possible farther north yet continue to diminish in coverage and
intensity through the night as the main boundary pushes southward
through the region. As this boundary clears the region, winds will
also diminish and should see strong wind gusts begin to fall below
advisory/warning criteria. Thus, expecting the High Wind Warning
and Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire at 6 PM PST. If the
winds do not begin to drop off we may need to extend through the
evening. Will also keep the Flash Flood Watch out through the
evening for most locations and will allow them to begin to expire
from north to south as the heavy rainfall threat diminishes.

On Monday, expect no more than some scattered showers over the
area. Afternoon highs around the bays look to be generally in the
mid to upper 50s. But then by Monday evening, the next Pacific weather
system will begin spreading a new round of rain into the North
Bay.

This next storm will not be either as windy or wet as the one
we've experienced this weekend, but that more reflects the
historic nature of what we've just gone through rather than the
upcoming system being anything less than a moderately strong and
wet winter storm.

Warm advection rains will spread southward over much of our
district Monday night and into Tuesday morning, becoming moderate
or even locally heavy over the North Bay. Then during the
afternoon, the primary cold frontal rain band will move rapidly
southward through the Bay Area. Rain rates will increase for
several hours around the time of its passage, and southerly winds
will ramp up as it approaches.

Especially given the widespread fully saturated conditions
following this weekend's heavy rain event, local flood issues
could well develop and we'll be vigilantly monitoring for this.
Winds along the coast and in the hills look to potentially get
close to Wind Advisory levels (though not up into the High Wind
Warning magnitudes we've just experienced) and will be monitoring
that as well. And finally, can't entirely rule out the
possibility of a thunderstorm in the unstable air mass following
the frontal passage.

Rainfall totals with this next system, from Monday night through
Tuesday night, are expected to range up to as much as about 4
inches wettest spots in the coastal mountains and 0.75 inch to
1.25 inches lower elevations around the bays. By comparison,
Venado in the North Bay mountains has thus far rec'd about 11.80 inches
of rain from the current system, and Downtown San Francisco just a
bit less than 2 inches. Tough to tell at this point exactly where
the heaviest rain will fall, but best model consensus at present
is pointing towards the Santa Cruz Mountains.

In the extended...Unsettled weather conditions and a cooling
trend appear on tap for Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level
low drops southward down the coast, with the latest ECMWF
deterministic run projecting 850 mb and 500 mb temps diminishing
down to around -2 deg C and -30 deg C respectively by 00Z Friday.
This would drop snow levels back down into the higher hills, as
well as raise the possibility of convection. Important to note
though that this will be a much less water-laden system and do not
presently expect it will result in any large rainfall totals.

Then by end of the week and for the weekend, longer-range model
output indicates a likelihood of dry conditions and seasonal temps
prevailing districtwide.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 2:00 PM PST Sunday...Light to moderate rain
will continue through this evening with MVFR cigs. Strong low-
level jet continues over the area with winds gusting 30-40 kt. The
jet shifts south with rain and winds decreasing after 10Z.

Vicinity of KSFO....MVFR cigs with light to moderate rain through
10Z. Cigs rising into VFR after 10Z. A few showers will linger
into Monday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The heaviest rain is over the Santa Lucia
mountains and rain is becoming light over the MRY Bay Area. Low
level moisture will settle over the area with MVFR cigs lowering
to 1000-1500 feet after 03Z. Gusty winds to 30 kt will slowly
subside to 20-25 kt after 04Z. Strongest winds in the Salinas
Valley.

&&

.MARINE...as of 03:12 PM PST Sunday...Hazardous conditions will
continue over the coastal waters with gusty winds and rough seas
as a storm system moves through the region. Winds will gradually
decrease late Sunday into Monday. Another storm system will impact
the area on Tuesday with wind and seas increasing again.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...Flash Flood Watch...CAZ006-508-509-512-513-529
             Flash Flood Watch...CAZ517-530
             SCA...Mry Bay
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 2 AM
             SCA...SF Bay until 3 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: Pi
MARINE: Sims

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
638 PM PST SUN JAN 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FREMONT                 37.53N 122.00W
01/07/2017                   ALAMEDA            CA   NEWSPAPER

            LOCALIZED FLOODING AND INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAINS ON
            HIGHWAY 880 AT MISSION BLVD EXIT CAUSED FATAL CRASH
            TAKING LIFE OF FEMALE DRIVER

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW OAKLAND            37.72N 122.29W
01/07/2017                   PZZ531             CA   NEWSPAPER

            TAXICAB DROVE INTO ESTUARY NEAR OAKLAND INTERNATIONAL
            AIRPORT DRIVER. DIVERS FOUND DRIVERS BODY IN AUTO.

0436 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 S VALLEJO             38.03N 122.26W
01/08/2017                   CONTRA COSTA       CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE POOL OF WATER WB 80 AT WILLOW

0459 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 27 W CLOVERDALE         38.75N 123.51W
01/08/2017                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOCKING ROAD ON SR1

0459 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW SALINAS           36.72N 121.66W
01/08/2017                   MONTEREY           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EXTREMELY LARGE TREE ACROSS THE WHOLE LANE.

0722 AM     FLOOD            NAPA                    38.30N 122.30W
01/08/2017                   NAPA               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADWAY FLOODING REPORTED NEAR GOLDEN GATE DR

0722 AM     FLOOD            SONOMA                  38.29N 122.46W
01/08/2017                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROHNERT PARK EXPWY/STONY POINT IN ROHNERT PARK FLOODED.
            ROAD CLOSURES IN EFFECT.

0958 AM     FLOOD            HEALDSBURG              38.62N 122.86W
01/08/2017                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WOHLER ROAD AT RIVER ROAD IS FLOODED.

1032 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W LOS GATOS           37.23N 122.01W
01/08/2017  M78.00 MPH       SANTA CLARA        CA   MESONET

1049 AM     FLOOD            HEALDSBURG              38.62N 122.86W
01/08/2017                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WOHLER RD AT RIVER RD IS FLOODED.

1049 AM     FLOOD            ST. HELENA              38.50N 122.47W
01/08/2017                   NAPA               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEER PARK RD BETWEEN HWY 29 AND SILVERADO TRAIL CLOSED
            DUE TO FLOODING. YOUNTVILLE CROSS RD ALSO IMPACTED.

1049 AM     FLOOD            ST. HELENA              38.50N 122.47W
01/08/2017                   NAPA               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEER PARK RD BETWEEN HWY 29 AND SILVERADO TRAIL CLOSEDD
            DUE TO FLOODING. YOUNTVILLE CROSS RD ALSO IMPACTED.

0153 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW MORGAN HILL       37.13N 121.65W
01/08/2017  E0.00 INCH       SANTA CLARA        CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.78 PRECIP INCHES MEASURED SINCE 8AM. WIDESPREAD MINOR
            FOODING IN MORGAN HILL.

0153 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 10 W SAN RAFAEL         37.98N 122.69W
01/08/2017  M70.00 MPH       MARIN              CA   MESONET

&&

BBENJAMI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
702 PM PST SUN JAN 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     FLOOD            5 W GILROY              37.01N 121.67W
01/08/2017                   SANTA CLARA        CA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HWY 152 CLOSED BOTH WAYS AT WATSONVILLE RD

&&

WPI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
711 PM PST SUN JAN 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      8 N SANTA CRUZ          37.09N 122.04W
01/08/2017                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SOUTHBOUND HWY 17 AT GLENWOOD DR SLOW LANE BLOCKED BY MUD

&&

WPI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
734 PM PST SUN JAN 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      20 S BIG SUR RAWS       35.95N 121.79W
01/08/2017                   PZZ576             CA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 1 CLOSED NEAT FULLERS POINT DUE TO ROCKSLIDE

&&

WPI

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