Alert archive / Montana / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

July 14, 2017Deer Lodge County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this special weather statement at Jul 14, 2017, 3:59 PM MDT for Deer Lodge County, Montana. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 14, 2017, 3:59 PM MDT (21:59 UTC)
Expired
Jul 14, 2017, 4:45 PM MDT
In force
46 min
Issued by
NWS Missoula, MT

County Deer Lodge County, MT

The radar

The Missoula radar (KMSX), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 234 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2017-07-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2017-07-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 1 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3013 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
25 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 14, 2:21 PM MDT, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 2:21 PM MDT, 1 hour 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
221 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

...Thunderstorms with gusty winds Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...Moisture that was previously in Nevada is moving
north through southern Idaho and will help initiate a few gusty
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Simulated radar
loops show most of the thunderstorms to move through Lemhi County
and southwest Montana but some of the outflow winds could make it
to Missoula this evening.

Saturday remains the day with the highest potential for
widespread thunderstorms. A few storms may move through northwest
Montana during the morning, but the afternoon is the main focus
for strong storms region-wide. Gusty winds and lightning are the
main threats with storms but brief heavy rain and small hail will
also become possible by the late afternoon.

Sunday will be around 10 degrees cooler than Saturday due to the
passage of a cold front. Winds are expected to become gusty by
Sunday afternoon as well, so fire weather conditions may become
critical in portions of the region.

Much drier air is expected with the cold front passage which will
lead to cool temperatures Monday morning.

Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are still
expected next week as the upper level ridge flattens.
Thunderstorms are possible on Monday but Tuesday now looks to have
lower thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...A plumb of monsoon moisture is moving through southern
Idaho and into southwest Montana this afternoon. Thunderstorms are
beginning to develop in the aforementioned areas and will continue
through the evening. The main threats with today's thunderstorms
are lightning and gusty winds. A few storms may produce wind
gusts over 50kts with the main threat between 14/2200Z-15/0400Z.
Although most shower activity will diminish after sunset, another
weak disturbance may set off isolated showers and thunderstorms
early Saturday morning mainly north of I-90.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An area of thunderstorms is expected to sweep
north this evening...across mainly the eastern Clearwater mountain
and areas east and southeast of that. Gusty winds can be expected
with these storms. For Saturday, deep moisture will be present,
resulting in more thunderstorms, but a better chance of rainfall
with them. By Sunday, a cooler and breezy westerly flow will
develop with drier air returning to the area.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 3:59 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
359 PM MDT FRI JUL 14 2017

MTZ007-142245-
Butte/Blackfoot Region MT-
359 PM MDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DEER LODGE...NORTH
CENTRAL SILVER BOW AND SOUTHERN POWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 359 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm over
Anaconda, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Anaconda, West Valley, Warm Springs, Gregson Hot Springs, Lost Creek,
Crackerville and Opportunity.

LAT...LON 4599 11303 4616 11313 4629 11282 4604 11268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 248DEG 9KT 4610 11299

The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 13, 6:13 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOPowell32 min
Jul 13, 6:47 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOPowell28 min
Jul 13, 6:48 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOPowell27 min
Jul 13, 7:37 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSODeer Lodge23 min
Jul 13, 8:48 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSODeer Lodge27 min
Jul 13, 9:17 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSODeer Lodge28 min
Jul 13, 9:44 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOGranite31 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Montana, 2017Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.