Alert archive / Montana / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

June 26, 2017Lincoln County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this special weather statement at Jun 26, 2017, 9:01 PM MDT for Lincoln County, Montana. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 26, 2017, 9:01 PM MDT (03:01 UTC)
Expired
Jun 26, 2017, 9:45 PM MDT
In force
44 min
Issued by
NWS Missoula, MT

County Lincoln County, MT

The radar

The Spokane radar (KOTX), 162 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 00:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Spokane, WA at 00:00Z on 2017-06-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 490 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Spokane, WA at 00:00Z on 2017-06-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -10 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
490 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2539 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
53 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 26, 2:39 PM MDT, 6 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 26, 2:39 PM MDT, 6 hours 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
239 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...STRONG STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING, PRODUCING STRONG WINDS,
HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

.DISCUSSION...A very hot and dry day today will transition to a
convectively active evening for north central Idaho and western
Montana. Severe storms are already firing off across northeast
Oregon, and these storms will cross into central Idaho later this
afternoon, continuing through the evening as they work their way
eastward into Montana.

***The greatest thunderstorm threat for central Idaho regarding
 thunderstorms will be strong outflow winds in excess of 40+ mph
 and hail (in addition to lightning/brief heavy downpours). The
 strongest storms will likely occur between the hours of 4pm-8pm
 PDT.***

For western Montana, a band of weak showers is currently crossing
NW Montana at this hour (2:30 pm MDT), and should produce nothing
more than a light passing shower. Warm and dry conditions will
persist across most of western MT until the thunderstorms form
later this evening, likely after 6 pm MDT.

***The greatest thunderstorm threat for western Montana will be
 strong outflow winds in excess of 40+ mph, abundant lightning,
 and brief heavy downpours. Small hail may also be possible (but
 will be a greater threat for ID locations). The strongest storms
 are likely to occur between 7pm-10pm MDT.***

Rain showers are possible during the AM hours Tuesday for the
Northern Rockies, as the system that caused thunderstorms
overnight slowly progresses east. The afternoon will be breezy in
the wake of the exiting system, with cooler air and temperatures
10 or so degrees cooler than Monday, with highs near seasonal
averages.

Wednesday will also be breezy, as the region remains under
northwest flow aloft. Seasonal temperatures continue throughout
the week, with Thursday and Friday bringing a slight chance for
additional afternoon showers along the Continental Divide. Valleys
not along the Continental Divide look to remain dry into the
weekend.

Models hint at a shortwave trough moving through Saturday, which
would bring the potential for enhanced rain chances, but
confidence is low at this point, given differing model solutions
and a lack of consistency with previous runs. Regardless, this
time period will be watched closely given the upcoming holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Strong thunderstorms will occur tonight for all
terminals, impacting KGIC around 26/2300Z, KMSO by 27/0300Z and
both KGPI and KBTM around 27/0500Z and thereafter. Gusty erratic
outflow winds will be the dominant aviation threat, along with
abundant lightning, small hail, and brief heavy downpours which
could quickly reduce visibility. Showers and embedded thunder
should continue overnight through Tuesday morning, with conditions
remaining showery but improving overall after 27/2200Z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 26, 7:57 PM MDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jun 26, 8:16 PM MDT, 45 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jun 26, 8:19 PM MDT, 42 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jun 26, 8:30 PM MDT, 31 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jun 26, 8:59 PM MDT, 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
859 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

MTZ007-270315-
Butte/Blackfoot Region MT-
859 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SILVER BOW COUNTY UNTIL
915 PM MDT...

At 859 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Silver Bow, or near Butte, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butte, Silver Bow, Walkerville, Nissler, Ramsay, Janney and Newcomb.

LAT...LON 4583 11264 4598 11279 4613 11251 4610 11247
      4607 11247 4605 11248 4602 11244 4599 11244
      4596 11243 4593 11244 4593 11242 4592 11242
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 236DEG 49KT 4595 11263
Special weather statement, Jun 26, 9:01 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 26, 6:33 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSORavalli27 min
Jun 26, 6:44 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSORavalli46 min
Jun 26, 7:36 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOMissoula24 min
Jun 26, 7:50 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOMineral40 min
Jun 26, 7:57 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSODeer Lodge48 min
Jun 26, 8:16 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOLake44 min
Jun 26, 8:19 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOPowell41 min
Jun 26, 8:30 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSORavalli45 min
Jun 26, 8:59 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOSilver Bow16 min
Jun 26, 9:14 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSORavalli31 min
Jun 26, 9:17 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOPowell28 min
Jun 26, 10:04 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOLincoln41 min
Jun 26, 11:45 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOFlathead45 min
Jun 27, 12:19 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOFlathead41 min
Jun 27, 4:19 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSO26 min
Jun 26, 6:27 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOClearwater33 min
Jun 27, 3:25 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOLemhi35 min
Jun 27, 3:42 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOLemhi33 min
Jun 27, 4:28 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementMSOIdaho47 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Montana, 2017Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.