Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
331 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)...
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming widespread at mid
afternoon across southeast Tennessee and the southern plateau with
heavy rainfall a threat for many of the stronger storms. A half
inch per hour is likely in most of the stronger storms with one
inch possible over the extreme southern valley and plateau late
this afternoon and early evening. Isolated storms still expected
to produce some strong winds of 50 to 60 mph the next few hours. A
few warnings may be needed until sunset. Will continue high rain
chances to sunset for all except southwest Virginia. Weak
shortwave energy ahead of the cold front combined with more
heating today and moderate instability is contributing to the
storms. Before the storms temperatures warmed into the mid 80s to
near 90 which helped the storms develop. Storms will gradually
decrease this evening and likely end around 04-06Z. The locally
heavy rains will allow for some patchy dense fog to form. On
Sunday the front will move into the Forecast Area and become
nearly stationary near east central Tennessee. Will continue low
pops north and chance pops south. Lows tonight still mild in the
lower 70s and highs Sunday in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)...
Will continue to transition into an active weather pattern for
the extended. Models in reasonable agreement with the overall
weather pattern but there remains poor consistency in details. The
basic pattern shows a series of short waves tracking through the
region Sunday night through Wednesday. There continues to be
differences in timing and track of each wave but this scenario
should provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area
each day. Model consistency decreases late in the period and
confidence is low. However... around the Thursday time
frame...models are trending towards bringing in a weakening
frontal boundary into the area. This should provide us with a bit
better chance of organized convection. A few showers may linger
into Friday. On Saturday...the trough axis moves through for a
continued chance of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  88  71  89 /  30  50  30  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  86  68  87 /  40  30  20  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  87  68  88 /  30  30  20  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  84  64  85 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

TD/MJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
335 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-022000-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
335 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 /235 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An upper level disturbance will continue to move across the
region this afternoon and evening. A moist and unstable air will
contribute to strong to severe thunderstorms developing into this
evening, with the main threat from the strongest storms being
damaging straight- line winds. Also, with the slow movement of the
storms and high moisture content locally heavy rainfall of one to
two inches within a couple hours localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible late this afternoon and evening.

TD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
449 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ060-061-012145-
Clay NC-Cherokee NC-
449 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHEROKEE AND CLAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Town Of Santeetlah to 7
miles south of Murphy to 6 miles northeast of Morganton. Movement was
east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Andrews, Murphy, Hayesville, Nantahala Lake, Shooting Creek,
Tusquitee, Topton, Brasstown and Marble.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8405 3529 8404 3529 8403 3524 8401
      3522 8397 3526 8384 3524 8374 3526 8371
      3523 8369 3520 8373 3519 8371 3515 8373
      3516 8365 3514 8366 3513 8362 3502 8352
      3501 8352 3500 8349 3499 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 266DEG 17KT 3527 8398 3499 8398 3496 8419

05/MA

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