Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
314 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)...
Radar shows a circulation centered over south central KY that will
be tracking east along the TN border through the evening. Showers
and thunderstorms should continue to increase ahead of this low and
its associated cold front just northwest of Nashville. MLCAPE has
increased to 500-1000 J/kg in the TN Valley, with 0-6 km shear
around 40 kts. So an isolated severe threat will exist, but locally
heavy rainfall may be a bigger threat, especially in SW VA where FFG
values are lowest and around 1 inch rain has already fallen today.

Passage of the cold front is expected to occur in the 06Z to 09Z
window, followed by the upper trough passage around 12Z, at which
time most precip should end. However, as satellite imagery shows, a
lot of low level moisture will linger behind the front. Overcast
clouds will likely persist through most of tomorrow morning, with
clearing skies through the afternoon from west to east. High temps
will be forecast on the cool side of guidance as models often erode
clouds too quickly.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)...
Skies will be mostly clear Saturday evening as weak high pressure
at the surface builds in from the NW. Temperatures will drop to
cooler than normal upper 40s to lower 50s early Sunday. Upper
level ridging will then take over Sunday and continue through mid
week. This will keep skies mostly sunny and above normal. After
deep low off the Northeast Coast moves away Monday Short wave
activity will drop over the ridge into the mid Atlantic Tuesday. A
little moisture return on the east side of the Appalachians will
help set off a few showers and storms in northeast Tennessee
Wednesday. As ridge shifts east Thursday and Friday moisture
increases and diurnal showers and storms will be more numerous.
Above average temperatures Tuesday through Friday with highs
possibly reaching 90 in the southern valley about 10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  75  54  82 /  70  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  72  53  80 /  80  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  74  52  81 /  70  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  71  48  77 / 100  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

DGS/TD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
241 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             14 E BRISTOL TN         36.57N 81.95W
05/12/2017  E1.00 INCH       SULLIVAN           TN   PUBLIC

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
412 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2017

TNZ040-042-043-122100-
Northwest Greene TN-Northwest Cocke TN-Southeast Greene TN-
412 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COCKE AND CENTRAL GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Parrottsville, or near Newport, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greeneville, Newport, Parrottsville, Mosheim, Caney Branch, Bybee,
Cedar Creek and Camp Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 8293 3600 8296 3598 8299 3594 8301
      3588 8316 3601 8326 3604 8326 3630 8289
      3607 8270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 236DEG 19KT 3600 8315

05/MA