Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2017

Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Marquette, MI

October 27, 2017Gogebic County, Ontonagon County, Michigan

NWS Marquette, MI issued this winter storm warning at Oct 27, 2017, 2:59 AM CDT for Gogebic County, Ontonagon County, Michigan. It took effect at Oct 27, 2017, 3:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 22 hr. 12 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Oct 27, 2017, 2:59 AM CDT (07:59 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 27, 2017, 3:00 PM CDT
Expired
Oct 28, 2017, 1:00 PM CDT
In force
22 hr
Issued by
NWS Marquette, MI

Counties Gogebic County, MI, Ontonagon County, MI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 153 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Oct 27, 3:30 PM CDTSNOW 1.4Ironwood, MITotal since 8am.
Oct 27, 5:00 PM CDTSNOW 5Bessemer, MIEstimated 4 to 5 inches of wet snow since 9am EDT. Report with pictures via social media.
Oct 27, 7:15 PM CDTSNOW 3Bergland, MISnowfall since around noon EDT. Report via social media.
Oct 27, 7:24 PM CDTSNOW 1.8Paulding, MISnowfall since early afternoon.
Oct 27, 8:13 PM CDTSNOW 62 Ese Bessemer, MISnowfall since this morning. Report via social media.
Oct 27, 8:29 PM CDTSNOW 61 Ssw Bessemer, MIEstimated 6 inches of very wet snow since this morning. Report via social media.
Oct 28, 6:35 AM CDTSNOW 8Bessemer, MIEstimated 8 inches of wet snow in Bessemer since yesterday morning. Report via social media.
Oct 28, 7:49 AM CDTSNOW 8.1Paulding, MI8.1 inches of measured snowfall in Paulding. Co-op observer PDGM4.
Oct 28, 7:58 AM CDTSNOW 82 Wnw Ironwood, MIMeasured 8 inches of snow in Ironwood. Co-op observer IRMM4.
Oct 28, 9:38 AM CDTSNOW 9.72 Ese Bessemer, MIMeasured 9.7 inches of snow in Anvil SE of Bessemer since yesterday morning. Of that, 3.7 inches is since yesterday evening. Report via social media.
Oct 28, 10:46 AM CDTSNOW 8.81 Ne Watersmeet, MIMeasured 8.8 inches of snow in Watersmeet. Report via social media.
Oct 28, 12:30 PM CDTSNOW 14.72 Sse Ironwood, MISnow total of 14.7 inches in Erwin Township ending 1:30 pm on 10/28/2017, exact location unknown. Delayed report. Public social media report relayed from media.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 265 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2017-10-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2017-10-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 217 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
967 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
217 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
263 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

135 
WWUS43 KMQT 270759
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
359 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

MIZ009-272000-
/O.UPG.KMQT.WS.A.0001.171028T0000Z-171028T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.WS.W.0004.171028T0000Z-171028T1800Z/
Gogebic-
Including the city of Ironwood
259 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy, wet snow is expected tonight. Plan on difficult
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are
  expected, with localized amounts up to 8 to 10 inches. 

* WHERE...Gogebic County, with the higher snowfall amounts 
  occuring inland from Lake Superior and across the higher 
  terrain. 

* WHEN...This evening through early Saturday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are
  possible during heavy snow. Northeast to north winds gusting 30
  mph to 40 mph near the Lake Superior shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ002-272000-
/O.UPG.KMQT.WS.A.0001.171028T0000Z-171028T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMQT.WW.Y.0022.171028T0000Z-171028T1800Z/
Ontonagon-
Including the city of Ontonagon
359 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total
  snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up
  to 6 inches expected.

* WHERE...Ontonagon County, with the higher snowfall amounts  
  occuring inland from Lake Superior and across the higher 
  terrain.

* WHEN...This evening through early Saturday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Reductions in visibility are possible
  during heavier snow. Northeast to north winds gusting 30 mph to
  40 mph near the Lake Superior shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$
5 follow-up statements
099 
WWUS43 KMQT 271628
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1228 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

MIZ002-280000-
/O.UPG.KMQT.WW.Y.0022.171028T0000Z-171028T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KMQT.WS.W.0004.171027T2000Z-171028T1800Z/
Ontonagon-
Including the city of Ontonagon
1228 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
2 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected inland from Lake Superior. Plan on
  difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches to the west of
  Bergland. Snow amounts near the Lake Superior shore will be less
  than 1 inch. 
 
* WHERE...Ontonagon County, inland from Lake Superior.

* WHEN...4 PM today to 2 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times during heavy snow. North winds will gust to
  40 mph near the Lake Superior shore. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ009-280000-
/O.EXT.KMQT.WS.W.0004.171027T2000Z-171028T1800Z/
Gogebic-
Including the city of Ironwood
1128 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected inland from Lake Superior. Plan on
  difficult travel conditions to develop later today into this
  evening. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches, with
  localized amounts over 12 inches over higher terrain. Snow
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches near Watersmeet. Snow amounts
  near the Lake Superior shore will be less than 1 inch.

* WHERE...Gogebic County.

* WHEN...4 PM today to 2 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times during heavy snow. North winds will gust to
  40 mph near the Lake Superior shore. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ001-003-004-084-280000-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WW.Y.0023.171027T2000Z-171028T1800Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, Hancock, L'Anse,
Kenton, and Sidnaw
1228 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
2 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, especially over the higher terrain inland
  from the shoreline of Lake Superior and Keweenaw Bay. Plan on
  slippery road conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches. Snow amounts near
  the shorelines will be less than 1 inch.

* WHERE...Keweenaw, Northern Houghton, Baraga and Southern 
  Houghton County.

* WHEN...4 PM today to 2 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times in heavy snow. Northeast winds will gust to 50 mph, 
  strongest into this evening near Lake Superior and Keweenaw Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

JLA
568 
WWUS43 KMQT 271920
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
320 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

MIZ002-009-280330-
/O.CON.KMQT.WS.W.0004.171027T2000Z-171028T1800Z/
Ontonagon-Gogebic-
Including the cities of Ontonagon and Ironwood
320 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 /220 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM
CDT/ SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected inland from Lake Superior. Plan on
  difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9
  inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches over the higher
  terrain from Ironwood to Bergland. Snow amounts near the Lake 
  Superior shore will be less than 1 inch. 

* WHERE...Ontonagon and Gogebic County, inland from Lake Superior.

* WHEN...4 PM today to 2 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times during heavy snow. North winds will gust to
  40 mph near the Lake Superior shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ001-003-004-084-280330-
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0023.171027T2000Z-171028T1800Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, Hancock, L'Anse,
Kenton, and Sidnaw
320 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, especially over the higher terrain inland
  from the shoreline of Lake Superior. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 8 inches. Snow amounts near the
  shorelines will be less than 1 inch.

* WHERE...Keweenaw, Northern Houghton, Baraga and Southern 
  Houghton County.

* WHEN...4 PM today to 2 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times in heavy snow. Northeast winds will gust to 50 mph,
  strongest into this evening near Lake Superior and Keweenaw 
  Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

JLA
824 
WWUS43 KMQT 280127
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
927 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

MIZ002-009-280930-
/O.CON.KMQT.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-171028T1800Z/
Ontonagon-Gogebic-
Including the cities of Ontonagon and Ironwood
927 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 /827 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM
CDT/ SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected inland from Lake Superior. Plan on 
  difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 
  9 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches over the 
  higher terrain from Ironwood to Bergland. Snow amounts near 
  the Lake Superior shore will be less than 1 inch.

* WHERE...Ontonagon and Gogebic County, inland from Lake 
  Superior.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times during heavy snow. North winds will gust 
  to 40 mph near the Lake Superior shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ001-003-004-084-280930-
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-171028T1800Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, Hancock, L'Anse,
Kenton, and Sidnaw
927 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, especially over the higher terrain 
  inland from the shoreline of Lake Superior. Plan on slippery 
  road conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, 
  with localized amounts up to 8 inches. Snow amounts near the 
  shorelines will be less than 1 inch.

* WHERE...Keweenaw, Northern Houghton, Baraga and Southern 
  Houghton County.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times in heavy snow. Northeast winds will gust to 40 mph,
  strongest into late evening near Lake Superior and Keweenaw 
  Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

07
455 
WWUS43 KMQT 280800
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

MIZ002-009-281600-
/O.CON.KMQT.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-171028T1800Z/
Ontonagon-Gogebic-
Including the cities of Ontonagon and Ironwood
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 /300 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM
CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow is ongoing within the warned area.
  Plan on difficult travel conditions. Additional snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected through the early
  afternoon hours. Additional snow accumulations near Lake 
  Superior are expected to be around or less than 1 inch.

* WHERE...Ontonagon and Gogebic County, inland from Lake Superior.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times and difficult travel due to wet, heavy snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ005-281600-
/O.EXB.KMQT.WW.Y.0023.171028T1200Z-171029T0000Z/
Marquette-
Including the cities of Gwinn and Marquette
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Wet, heavy snow expected later today. Plan on slippery
  road conditions. Total snow accumulations of up to 3 inches,
  with localized amounts up to 4 inches, are expected through the
  early afternoon hours. Snow accumulations near Lake Superior are
  expected to be less than 1 inch.

* WHERE...Marquette County, especially across the higher terrain
  and inland from Lake Superior.

* WHEN...Mid morning through the afternoon. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times and difficult travel due to wet, heavy snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ001-003-004-084-281600-
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-171028T1800Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, Hancock, L'Anse,
Kenton, and Sidnaw
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions. 
  Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with localized 
  amounts up to 5 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Keweenaw, Northern Houghton, Baraga and Southern 
  Houghton County.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times and difficult travel due to wet, heavy snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$
980 
WWUS43 KMQT 281525
WSWMQT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1125 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

MIZ002-009-281800-
/O.CON.KMQT.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-171028T1800Z/
Ontonagon-Gogebic-
Including the cities of Ontonagon and Ironwood
1125 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 /1025 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM
CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow is occurring, mainly inland. Plan
  on difficult travel conditions as roads remain snow covered and
  slippery. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches are
  expected through early this afternoon. Little if any snow will
  accumulate near the Lake Superior shore.

* WHERE...Ontonagon and Gogebic County.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times during heavier snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$

MIZ001-003-004-084-281800-
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-171028T1800Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, Hancock, L'Anse,
Kenton, and Sidnaw
1125 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions in the
  higher terrain. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch
  are expected through early this afternoon.

* WHERE...Keweenaw, Northern Houghton, Baraga and Southern 
  Houghton County.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times during heavier snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ005-290000-
/O.CON.KMQT.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-171029T0000Z/
Marquette-
Including the cities of Gwinn and Marquette
1125 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Light to moderate snow is occurring over higher terrain.
  Slippery road conditions are possible in the higher terrain. 
  Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches are expected. 
  Little if any snow accumulation is expected along the Lake 
  Superior shore.

* WHERE...Marquette County.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times during heavier snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

JLA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Oct 27, 12:22 AM CDT, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 27, 12:22 AM CDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
122 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2017

Another storm system is expected to impact the Upper Great Lakes
tonight into the early part of the weekend.

Mid-upper level trough over the Northern Plains will move slowly
east into the Western Great Lakes on Friday. Associated sfc low
centers near 1000 mb over central Minnesota and eastern IA late this
afternoon are forecast to merge into a 1004 mb sfc low over central
Upper Mi late Fri afternoon/evening. Tightening pres gradient
associated with the sfc low will result in increasing e-se winds
late this afternoon into tonight. As the low moves over central
Upper Mi during the day on Friday the pres gradient will tighten
into western and north central Upper Mi causing increasing ne winds
which could gust as high as 40 mph along the Lake Superior shoreline
locations on Fri. Winds will increase out of the NE late tonight
over the nw fcst area, but will remain below 35mph over land through
tonight. Increasing ne winds will cause waves to increase up to 10-
12' in susceptible shorelines on Lake Superior by late tonight,
which will lead to some beach erosion and some minor flooding, but
more impactful waves of 14-18' on Lake Superior will occur Friday
into Friday night (see Lakeshore Flood Advisory). Plenty of precip
with this system with upslope and lake enhancement boosting rain
totals to over 2 inches for portions of the Keweenaw through Fri
morning, most of that falling tonight and Fri morning. Over other
portions of the N-central and western U.P. will see amounts from
0.75-1.75 inches tonight through Fri morning, while the S-central
and E generally will see 0.50 inches or less. Some snow may mix
in over the higher terrain late tonight and late Fri afternoon in
the west, but no accumulations are expected tonight and only an
inch is possible far west on Friday. The heavy rain may start to
cause some minor river flooding or bankfull issues over
northwestern and north central Upper MI on Fri into Sat as
additional precip falls and rivers respond to additional runoff.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2017

...Wet/heavy snow western Upper Michigan Fri night into Sat...

Slow moving upper low will be squarely over northern WI and Upper
Michigan Fri night into Sat. Strongest lift with shortwaves rotating
around the low move across on Fri with another surge of stronger
lift sliding across on Fri night. N-NE winds on northwest side of
associated sfc-h85 lows and h85 temps down to -4c to -7c along with
Lk Superior water temps around 10C/50F will be plenty sufficient for
lake enhanced precipitation over far west Upper Michigan, vcnty of
Ironwood to the Porcupine Mts. Additional forcing will come from
sharper h85-h7 fgen on the cool side of the system over roughly the
west third of Upper Michigan. Temps aloft plenty cold for snow, but
low-levels only marginally cold for snow. Soundings and model data
indicate that wet bulb zero will be low enough for snow over far
west Upper Michigan higher terrain, while farther east over the
Keweenaw and the north central higher terrain, limited cold air
advection seems to offset upslope NE flow to result in mainly a mix
of rain/snow or snow with only minor accums.

Due to stronger winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph near the Lk
Superior shore, even a mix of rain and snow could result in
eventually needing winter weather advisories for more of the west
and north central, but for now only hoisted winter storm watch over
the far west forecast area (Gogebic and Ontonagon) due to higher
snow amounts of 6-8 inches expected there and fact that water
equivalent in the snow will be pushing 1 inch. Typically even with
marginal snow amounts we will see more impacts due to the heavy/wet
nature of the expected snow. Also stronger winds closer to the shore
in these areas with the snow could lead to further hazards. Last
item to note is with system snow component initially on Fri night,
heavier snow could extend farther inland toward Watersmeet (where it
will become colder quicker over the higher terrain) as this is not
just a typical lake enhanced scenario.

On into Sat, synoptic component of system should shift leftover lake
enhanced snow more into north central Upper Michigan higher terrain
with N-NW winds developing on back side of exiting low. Soundings
show inversions up to 10kft but it never gets all that cold with h85
temps staying in the -6c to -8c range. Still that results in delta
t/s in upper teens and that is good enough for light to moderate
snow accumulations even in a pure les setup. Afternoon temps should
be in the low to mid 30s for higher terrain and in the upper 30s
along the shoreline areas, so main snow accumulation will mainly
stay over higher terrain. Winds will not be stronger than 15-20 mph
with 25-30 mph gusts near the shore, so by that time main hazard
will be from slushy snow accums versus the winds. Lakeshore hazard
for the waves near Superior will gradually be diminishing at that
time as well with values falling below 8 feet by Sat aftn.

Cooler than normal and unsettled weather pattern continues through
much of the rest of the extended. Chance for a clipper shortwave to
bring widespread light snow early next week while very strong low
pressure system affects eastern Canada. Daytime temps will stay in
the 30s over interior west half with lower 40s over rest of the
area. Nighttime lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s. Overall some
inland areas of western Upper Michigan could have a good start on
their snowpack of the winter season.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2017

Continuing worsening flight conditions are expected overnight as
widespread rainfall continues. Ceilings/visibilities will continue
to lower as a result. Expecting IFR conditions to continue at CMX
and IWD through the forecast period and to develop at SAW
overnight and remain that way through the period.

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 351 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2017

Winds will continue to ramp up tonight as another strong low
pressure system organizes over central Upper Mi Fri afternoon and
Friday night. Gales over western Lake Superior will ramp up as high
as 45 knots tonight into Friday and as high as 40 knots over central
and eastern Lake Superior late tonight into Friday night. Gale
warnings are in effect for the entire lake starting late this
afternoon and continuing into Fri night. A few storm force wind
gusts to 50 knots will be possible over far western Lake Superior
late tonight and Fri morning. Winds should diminish blo gales Sat
morning as the low pressure system weakens and gradually pushes
east.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning
     to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Saturday for MIZ001>003-009.

  Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon
     for MIZ002-009.

  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for MIZ004-005.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LSZ249>251-267.

  Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Saturday for LSZ162-
     240>245-263-264-266.

  Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ246>248-265.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ248-250.

&&

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Voss
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 26, 3:33 PM CDT, 11 hours 26 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
433 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-271200-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
433 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 /333 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

East to northeast winds may gust to 40 to 45 mph along the Lake
Superior shore on Friday. Strongest winds will be along the shore
of western Upper Michigan. The strong winds over Lake Superior
will generate large waves that will cause some beach erosion and
beach flooding. See the latest lakeshore hazard message for
complete details.

Several inches of heavy, wet snow is expected over the interior of
western Upper Michigan Friday night through Saturday. Travel
could become difficult due to the wet and slushy snow accumulating
on some roads. See the latest winter weather message for more
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-271200-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
433 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 /333 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

East gales to 35 knots over the west half of Lake Superior will
increase to 45 knots tonight. East gales to 35 knots will spread
to the east half of Lake Superior after midnight. The strongest
winds will be over western Lake Superior where some storm force
gusts to 50 knots are possible. See the latest Lake Superior
marine forecasts and marine weather messages for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Northeast to north gales of 35 to 45 knots are expected Friday.
Winds will diminish to below gale force late Friday night and
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-271200-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
433 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Easterly gale force wind gusts to 35 knots are expected late
tonight, mainly on Lake Michigan outside of the Bay of Green Bay.
See the latest Lake Michigan marine forecasts and marine weather
messages for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Easterly gale force wind gusts to 35 knots are expected Friday
morning, mainly on Lake Michigan outside of the Bay of Green Bay.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

JLA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Marquette, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 27, 1:58 AM CDTGale WarningMQT32 hr
Oct 27, 1:58 AM CDTSmall Craft AdvisoryMQT47 hr
Oct 27, 1:58 AM CDTStorm WarningMQT14 hr
Oct 27, 2:59 AM CDTWinter Weather AdvisoryMQTOntonagon8 hr
Oct 27, 11:28 AM CDTWinter Weather AdvisoryMQTBaraga, Houghton, Keweenaw, Marquette32 hr
Oct 27, 12:48 PM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryMQTHoughton18 hr
Oct 27, 2:42 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMQTBaraga, Houghton, Keweenaw, Ontonagon9 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2017Every winter storm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.