Small Craft Advisory 12, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1209 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

Tonight and Sunday: Broad surface high pressure shifts east across
the Upper Great Lakes region tonight and will persist into Sunday
ensuring dry conditions across much of Upper Mi through the period.
Lingering light lake effect snow over the Keweenaw Peninsula and the
far ne cwa will gradually diminish or end later this
evening/overnight as building high pressure from the west continues
to moderate the airmass while lowering subsidence inversions to 2-3
kft as noted on model forecast soundings. Diminishing wind and
proximity to high pressure area moving just to the south will allow
western interior locations especially near the Wi border to dip into
the single digits blo zero again tonight. Min temps will stay warmer
(generally in the single digits above zero) near Lake Superior with
expected onshore wnw flow through much of the night.

Warm advection under sunny skies should allow max temps to rise into
the mid/upper 20s on Sunday, with some readings topping 30F over the
W and N central where sw winds downslope.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

Most attention is early in the long term as a couple upper waves
interact and move through the region, packing a SFC low along with
them. Still lots of uncertainty as one piece of energy is over the
Gulf of Alaska and the other over the Baja Peninsula. General idea
is that precip will move in late Mon into Mon night then, for the
most part, exit late Tue into Tue night. Precip looks to start as
snow, then transition to sleet then to rain and some freezing rain
as warmer air moves into the area. Models have been trending
slightly cooler, which would result in more snow and sleet, but
there is plenty of time for that to change. Overall do not expect
any major accumulations of any given precip type, but there could be
travel impacts given potential for sleet and some ice. Blended
forecast initialization worked well, especially given uncertainty
involved, so made no changes.

The rest of the long term looks quiet with minimal precip chances,
highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s to around 30.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1209 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

Any remaining lake effect clouds will clear out overnight with the
approach of a high pressure ridge and moderating airmass. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. As the high
moves off to the east, increasing southwest winds above the low
level inversion will bring LLWS to IWD and SAW this evening.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 225 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

Pressure gradient will continue to weaken across Lake Superior this
evening as high pressure builds back into the area tonight, allowing
winds to diminish under 20-25 kts late tonight. The pressure
gradient will tighten once again Sunday into Sunday night as low
pressure slides across central Canada and the high pressure ridge
over the Upper Great Lakes shifts to the east. This will allow
southwest winds to increase up to 30 knots once again. There could
even be a brief period of gales to 35 knots between Isle Royale and
the Keweenaw Peninsula late Sun afternoon/early evening. The next
area of low pressure will approach the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday and
move through Tuesday night; however, the system is not expected to
be overly intense as winds should remain at or below 25 knots
through this time period. High pressure dominating the last half of
next week will continue to keep winds generally light (blo 20 knots)
thru much of the period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Voss

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-152130-
KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE-
GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
419 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017 /319 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2017/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. FREEZING
RAIN AND SOME ACCUMULATION OF ICE WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT...IMPACTING A WIDE SWATH OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE. THE PUBLIC MAY ALSO SUBMIT REPORTS AT
OUR WEBPAGE...FACEBOOK PAGE...OR ON TWITTER.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-152130-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI-
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI-
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI-
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI-
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI-
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING
KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI-
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI-
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYALE NATIONAL PARK-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU
ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
419 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017 /319 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2017/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

LMZ221-248-250-152130-
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI-
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-
419 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

TITUS