Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
229 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017

The short term concern remains timing of scattered convection
through early evening and redevelopment to the east on Tuesday.

Latest radar showing scattered linear convection dropping south
across the area late this afternoon. Some small hail and gusty
winds associated with the activity and this will continue into
central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin early. MUCAPE and
deep layer shear is limited as it moves into southern Minnesota
so threat of any severe activity remains low. This should wane by
sunset with clearing expected. The gusty northwest winds will
diminish as well in the normal diurnal trend.

Clouds will develop late morning Tuesday once again with another
chance of showers, mainly to the east. The thunder threat is lower
than today so will keep activity as showers. High temperatures
will struggle to warm through the 60s with breezy northwest wind
expected once again.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017

Tuesday night and Wednesday...The period will commence with a weak
surface trough extending nearly E-W from the Michigan UP through
central WI and central MN while an upper level trough axis
attendant from a large low pressure center east of Hudson Bay
extends southwest through WI into southern MN. These features at
the surface and aloft will have barely enough moisture to keep
clouds over the eastern portion of the WFO MPX coverage area and
possibly isolated rain showers in far eastern portions of the
coverage area, a handful of counties in west central WI. These
features will swing to the southeast during the day Wednesday,
allowing much drier NNW flow aloft and surface high pressure over
south central Canada to drop into the region. These features will
keep cold air advection going, forcing temperatures to down to
around 10 degrees below normal. Lows will drop to the 40s across
the coverage area followed by highs only in the 60s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Deep ridging aloft from the western
states will slowly slide east across the region along with
expansive surface high pressure. This will result in plenty of
clear skies along with building heights aloft and a transition
from northerly flow to southerly flow. Temperatures will go on a
gradual upswing during the end of the week into the weekend, with
highs climbing into the 70s areas-wide by Saturday.

Sunday and Monday...A flatter upper air pattern will evolve by the
start of next week while a weak cold front attempts to arrive
from the west. This scenario will degrade the subsidence available
from suppressing precipitation so some isolated chances for
precipitation have been introduced for the start of next week. Not
looking for anything impressive but enough signal is there to
introduce slight chance pops. Temperatures will continue their
seasonably mild run with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017

Timing of shra/tsra is the only real issue for this afternoon.
Looks like activity should wane after 00z. Use HRRR/NAMNEST for
timing. We should still see northwest winds become gusty during
the afternoon and then decrease this evening. Should increase
again after 15z Tue. Could see a few strong storms that could
produce small hail and strong wind gusts. Not expected to be
severe and should be isolated.

KMSP...Greatest risk for shra/tsra looks to come between 22z and
01z. If MSP sees something, will be short lived.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind light/variable.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
051700-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Severe
weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

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