Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
755 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

The next 36 hours will have plenty of instability for thunderstorms,
but little in the way of forcing or deep layer shear to justify a
legitimate severe weather threat. This explains why SPC has
outlooked the rest of today and tomorrow with marginal risk of
severe weather. HiRes models continue the trend of less and less
storms later this afternoon across central and eastern Minnesota, so
feel quite confident that most locations will remain dry through
sunset this evening.

A much better chance for storms comes later tonight as a weakening
cold front moves in from the Dakotas. This boundary is already
producing some convection, and HiRes models show more widespread
precip developing later tonight. For that reason increased pops
overnight. This boundary will stall out across the region on
Wednesday and will be the focus for any storms that develop
throughout the day.  Continued with a slight chance for storms
across much of the region since it is unclear where exactly this
boundary will set up, and how much low level convergence will still
exist a long it. Forecast soundings show another conditionally
unstable environment with 3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE developing during the
afternoon, but the deep layer shear remains week so any updraft that
does develop should quickly become precip-loaded and weaken. The
severe weather threat tomorrow will be short-lived pulse-severe
storms capable of some large hail and perhaps a wet microburst.
Organized severe weather is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Main concern is threat of storms late tomorrow night into
Thursday. After that, it looks like a day or so of dry weather,
followed by a rather unsettled pattern in nw flow.

Severe weather appears to be a good bet Thursday. Models are in good
agreement that a strong trough associated with northern Alberta
upper low will swing across MN/WI on Thursday. Upper wind max
appears to be around 80 knots, and winds at 850 are around 35-40
knots. Surface trough intensifies accordingly on Thursday. Given
decent speed and directional shear, throw in abundant moisture,
steep lapse rates etc, and severe weather should develop midday
Thursday.

After the storms, late Thursday night into Friday night should be
dry. For Saturday and beyond, it seems the longer range models are
in better agreement that the western ridge may stay far enough west
so that nw flow will persist across the area with frequent short
waves into early next week. The European is a little more aggressive
early next week with edging the ridge axis closer to us, but it
still has us in nw flow next Monday. The GFS flattens the ridge and
turns the flow more westerly over us in six to seven days a day more
quickly than the EC, but either way, we'll still be susceptible to
the occasional short wave in w or nw flow into early next week.
Timing of these features is not really fruitful, so have a variety
of 20-30% pops for Saturday through Tuesday. Beyond next Tuesday,
there remains a significant question as to how much the ridge will
build into our area, since models the past few days have been trying
to expand the upper high too quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 755 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Isolated storms will weaken this evening across west central
Minnesota, with another round over northwest MN expected to track
southeast late this evening and overnight into central MN. These
too will weaken some overnight, but rain and some thunder will be
possible at AXN/STC/MSP and maybe RNH/EAU early Wednesday morning.
VFR conditions expected.

KMSP...No concerns this evening. A weakening complex of storms may
approach after 08Z, with some potential for isolated storms
lingering into Wednesday morning along an outflow boundary.
Storms will become more numerous Wednesday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...Mainly VFR. -TSRA/MVFR possible. Wind SW bcmg NW at 10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NW at 10G15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S at 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
230 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
051930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
230 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to hold off until after 10 pm for most
locations. A few storms will move through from northwest to
southeast overnight and could be strong to severe and produce
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Severe weather appears likely on Thursday, especially east of
I-35.

Thunderstorms are possible for Wednesday and Thursday. There is a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms on Thursday in
west central Wisconsin, with a slight risk in portions of east
central and south central Minnesota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed Thursday.

jrb

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
747 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             6 E SUNBURG             45.34N 95.11W
07/04/2017  E2.00 INCH       KANDIYOHI          MN   PUBLIC

            PICTURE SUBMITTED VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

AMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
753 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             6 E SUNBURG             45.33N 95.11W
07/04/2017  E2.00 INCH       KANDIYOHI          MN   PUBLIC

            PHOTO SUBMITTED VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

AMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
856 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     HAIL             1 NE CLARA CITY         44.97N 95.36W
07/04/2017  M1.00 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
906 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             3 N SACRED HEART        44.83N 95.35W
07/04/2017  E1.00 INCH       RENVILLE           MN   PUBLIC

            PHOTO SHARED ON FACEBOOK.

&&

AMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
917 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             1 NNE CLARA CITY        44.97N 95.36W
07/04/2017  E1.50 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MN   PUBLIC

&&

BORGHOFF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
931 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

MNZ093-050315-
Freeborn-
931 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FREEBORN
COUNTY...

At 930 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Manchester to near Mansfield.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail is possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Albert Lea, Clarks Grove, Glenville, Geneva, Emmons, Hartland,
Hollandale, Hayward, Twin Lakes, Conger, Manchester and Albert Lea
Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 1 and 25.
 Interstate 90 between mile markers 147 and 164.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4385 9348 4385 9318 4384 9317 4350 9330
      4350 9363
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 234DEG 16KT 4375 9348 4355 9356

BORGHOFF