Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 j/kg of sbcape has developed this
afternoon, with little inhibition present. As a result, we quickly
saw a cu field bubble up into scattered thunderstorms. Effective
shear though is under 10 kts and there are really no surface
boundary for storms to latch on to. So we have our airmass
thunderstorms with little organization. With little shear, the
amount of instability we have really is not enough to create
severe pulse storms, to it's garden variety thunderstorms for the
rest of the afternoon. Showers may linger through midnight out in
WI as a weak short wave currently over central MN works through
there this evening.

Not much happening tonight other than a threat for some fog/low
stratus out toward Ladysmith/Eau Claire where winds will be
lightest and low level moisture will remain highest.

Saturday looks to be an overall nice summer day with highs near 80
and light winds. Only mark against the weather for Saturday is the
increasing mid level clouds in the afternoon as we get a glancing
blow from a shortwave working across the international border. This
wave will likely result in scattered storms across northern MN that
may try to work into central MN through the afternoon. However,
forcing looks better across the arrowhead and this is where the
greatest coverage in showers is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Its looking more and more like the first half of the holiday
weekend will be favorable for outdoor activities as high pressure
builds across the Great Lakes and brings light northerly winds
will cooler, drier air and plenty of sunshine. The lone exception
is a chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night as a cold
front passes through the region.

On Monday a shortwave will track east and spark off some showers
and thunderstorms over the High Plains. The question remains as
whether or not the shortwave dives southeast along the Missouri
River Valley, or tracks eastward across the Upper Midwest. At this
time don't have a good feel for either solution, but based on the
forecast soundings there is plenty of instability for the storms
to continue east across the Upper Midwest late Monday night into
Tuesday, but it appears the storms will weaken as they move from
the Dakotas into western Minnesota.

The forecast for Tuesday and beyond remains one characterized by
low confidence. The reason being, expect plenty of instability
across Minnesota and Wisconsin, but little in the way for forcing
as an Upper Level Ridge builds across the Rockies, with weak
shortwaves riding on the periphery of this ridge that are
difficult to time and place. Based on the overall set up, Northern
Minnesota and Wisconsin will have a higher chance for showers and
thunderstorms than the southern part of the states. Temperatures
should be above normal, but will be contingent on convection and
cloud cover so continued down the path of the previous shift and
did not stray much above the blended guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Still dealing with spotty convection over much of the area through
approximately 03z-04z with the atmosphere becoming more stable
later this evening through tomorrow. VCTS/TEMPO is the best way to
go due to the hit-and-miss nature of this convection. Mid-to-high
level clouds will then prevail late tonight through tomorrow, all
within VFR range.

KMSP...Still a shot to have some isolated TSRA in the first few
hours of the 01/00z TAF. Otherwise, mid-to-high VFR cloud decks
will prevail with winds backing from NW to SW with speeds less
than 10 kt outside of thunderstorms.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Winds light and variable.
Mon...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kt.
Tue...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
322 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
012030-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
322 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will occur across the outlook area,
the rest of this afternoon into the early evening. Severe weather
is not expected, but a few storms could produce brief heavy
rainfall, gusty winds and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are small chances for of thunderstorms Saturday night in
east central Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin and across
portions of the area Monday through Thursday. The threat for
severe weather during these periods is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
715 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

MNZ065>067-010100-
McLeod-Sibley-Renville-
715 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SIBLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD AND NORTHEASTERN RENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 800
PM CDT...

At 714 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Cosmos, or 15
miles west of Hutchinson, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted through 800 PM CDT include...
Hector, Brownton, Buffalo Lake, Stewart and Lakeside.

This includes U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 90 and 110.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4461 9464 4484 9482 4489 9477 4489 9456
      4474 9430
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 306DEG 19KT 4486 9470

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
721 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

MNZ052-010100-
Isanti-
721 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ISANTI COUNTY
THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Spencer Brook,
or 10 miles west of Cambridge, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted through 800 PM CDT include...
Cambridge, St. Francis, Isanti, Athens, Spencer Brook and Weber.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4546 9308 4541 9328 4541 9341 4556 9351
      4562 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 314DEG 17KT 4556 9345

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
828 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

MNZ044-052-010230-
Isanti-Mille Lacs-
828 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MILLE LACS AND
NORTHWESTERN ISANTI COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 827 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Milaca to near Lewis Lake. Movement was
southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted through 930 PM CDT include...
Milaca, Foreston, Stanchfield, Dalbo, Pease and Grandy.

This includes U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 183 and 191.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4575 9351 4573 9351 4574 9337 4573 9329
      4565 9314 4559 9314 4559 9315 4564 9369
      4577 9377
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 298DEG 14KT 4576 9366 4570 9331

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
850 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

MNZ083-010230-
Blue Earth-
850 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BLUE EARTH
COUNTY THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 850 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mankato. the
storm is slowly drifting southeast.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted through 930 PM CDT include...
Mankato and Eagle Lake.

This includes U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 133 and 139.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4413 9401 4418 9397 4418 9383 4406 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 294DEG 3KT 4415 9397

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
923 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

MNZ052-010300-
Isanti-
923 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ISANTI COUNTY
THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...

At 922 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cambridge
Airport, or over Cambridge, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted through 1000 PM CDT include...
Cambridge, North Branch, Isanti, Spring Lake, Weber, Bodum and
Cambridge Airport.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4558 9314 4555 9314 4555 9303 4551 9301
      4541 9302 4541 9310 4542 9322 4556 9331
      4560 9325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 308DEG 11KT 4556 9325

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
938 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

MNZ059-060-010330-
Hennepin-Wright-
938 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WRIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERN HENNEPIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...

At 937 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Albertville to Buffalo Airport.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted through 1030 pm CDT include...
Buffalo, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Maple Grove, Champlin, Elk River,
Anoka, St. Michael, Otsego, Mound, Rogers and Orono.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 197 and 205.
 U.S. Highway 12 near mile marker 140.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4530 9362 4527 9355 4523 9349 4521 9342
      4517 9335 4491 9369 4515 9386 4530 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 310DEG 17KT 4528 9367 4515 9381

JPC