Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

Early this afternoon, convection developed along the leading edge of
weak instability noted in far western Minnesota. Deeper convection
was noted in northern Minnesota where colder temperatures aloft
allowed for slightly higher CAPES. Some small hail was also noted in
northern Minnesota from some of the heftier cells. All of these
showers/thunderstorms will quickly die off once daytime heating
ends. Although models do show some activity moving eastward into
east central Minnesota after dark, believe this is related to weak
elevated instability. There is a weak short wave moving southeast
across northwest Minnesota this afternoon which may allow for the
continuation of the showers after dark, but confidence is rather
low, especially considering the nature of the convection, and more
diurnally driven.

Tomorrow this short wave and surface trough will be far enough
southeast of Minnesota to limit any chance of afternoon convection
to redevelop. Highs tomorrow will be similar with temperatures
reaching the 60s, to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

The longer term concerns remain the chance of a back door cold
front progged across the area Friday/Friday night. Then the
extent of warming and shower/thunder threat developing early next
week.

Pleasant weather should start out the long term period for
Friday. Temperatures are expected to warm out ahead of the next
cold front moving in Friday night. Highs in the 70s should be
attained ahead of the front. A backdoor cold front will drop south
over the area Friday night and could generate some showers mainly
across west central Wisconsin.

A couple of days of cooler weather but dry conditions are expected
for the weekend as the eastern CONUS trough moves farther east
allowing ridging to build east across the Central Plains. As this
occurs temperatures should warm into the 70s early next week. On
the periphery of the warmer temperatures, moisture will increase
along with increasing instability. This developing warm front
should lift into southern Minnesota early next week and will be
the focus of at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms. There
is some model differences on how quickly the upper ridge breaks
down as more western CONUS energy slides east. There will be some
bust potential for temperatures especially Tuesday into Wednesday
when highs in the 80's could be possible to the southwest. We
will retain the chance PoPs for Monday night through Wednesday for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

How much coverage of the SHRA/TSRA will develop this afternoon is
the main aviation concern. Currently around noon, instability is
still weak with higher instability noted across northwest, west
central Minnesota where more sunshine occurred this morning.
Although all short term models have SHRA/TSRA becoming more
scattered/widespread this afternoon along a weak surface trough
moving into western/central Minnesota, the amount of instability
remains weak. Will continue with VCTS for central/southwest
Minnesota tafs, but hold off anything further to the east. After
sunset, any activity will quickly die off with only ISOLD showers
at best through midnight. Winds will slowly become more west-
northwest in western Minnesota this afternoon, and across eastern
Minnesota during the evening.

KMSP...

Not enough confidence for adding VCTS to the current taf. If
thunderstorms develop in western Minnesota this afternoon, the
coverage will decrease rapidly once it moves into eastern
Minnesota due to much weaker instability. No other aviation
concerns overnight. Winds will become more west, and northwest
overnight, but remain less than 10 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Fri...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind N-NE 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1212 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>067-073>075-082-041715-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-
Meeker-Wright-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Redwood-
Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-
1212 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
and into the early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms next Monday and Tuesday.
Severe weather chances are low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ053-060>063-068>070-076>078-083>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
041715-
Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-
Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-
Eau Claire-
1212 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southeast Minnesota...
northwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms next Monday and Tuesday.
Severe weather chances are low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
537 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

MNZ042-043-032330-
Morrison-Todd-
537 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TODD AND
NORTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...

At 536 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Motley, or 20
miles west of Brainerd, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Ripley, Cushing, Motley and Philbrook.

This includes U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 113
and 124.

LAT...LON 4633 9462 4631 9455 4631 9451 4633 9443
      4629 9435 4627 9434 4623 9440 4617 9436
      4608 9444 4626 9476 4636 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 300DEG 14KT 4630 9461