Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Twin Cities, MN

621 
WWUS53 KMPX 260927
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
427 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

MNC037-163-260945-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-170726T0945Z/
Dakota MN-Washington MN-
427 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 427 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Coates, or 14
miles south of St. Paul, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Hastings around 435 AM CDT. 
  Prescott around 440 AM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Grey
Cloud Township, Afton State Park, Coates, Vermillion and Point
Douglas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4489 9277 4482 9277 4475 9281 4471 9273
      4466 9273 4462 9304 4480 9315
TIME...MOT...LOC 0927Z 255DEG 48KT 4474 9300 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

jrb

041 
WWUS53 KMPX 260933
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
433 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

MNC037-163-260945-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-170726T0945Z/
Dakota MN-Washington MN-
433 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 432 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Cottage Grove,
or 12 miles west of River Falls, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Afton around 435 AM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Grey
Cloud Township, Afton State Park, Vermillion and Point Douglas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4489 9277 4482 9277 4475 9281 4471 9273
      4466 9273 4465 9298 4481 9309
TIME...MOT...LOC 0932Z 243DEG 51KT 4483 9287 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

jrb

791 
WWUS53 KMPX 260944
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
444 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

MNC037-163-260954-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-170726T0945Z/
Dakota MN-Washington MN-
444 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DAKOTA AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4489 9277 4482 9277 4475 9281 4471 9273
      4466 9273 4465 9298 4481 9309
TIME...MOT...LOC 0944Z 255DEG 48KT 4487 9268 

$$

jrb

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
401 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue early this morning
in a continued very warm and moist airmass within a corridor of
pwats around 2 inches stretching from southwest MN to northwest
Wisconsin. This corridor of deep moisture will sag south gradually
this morning with high pressure building into the northern
Plains. The best forcing will be confined to areas well to the
south associated with the LLJ currently over southeast Nebraska.
This LLJ will shift eastward today, facilitating training activity
and torrential rain totals south of I-80. There is little forcing
in our area that will provide focus for more organized activity
through the day, so expect continued periods of showers and
embedded thunderstorms across south central MN into west central
WI at least during the morning hours.

Clearing skies will follow the front with much drier air arriving
by this evening. Clear skies and light winds tonight could allow
for some fog formation with crossover temperatures being exceeded
by several degrees. There may be a bit too much wind aloft for
widespread fog, however.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

No changes from the previous forecast other than to taper off pops
with the forecast trending drier and drier for the weekend and into
early next week. No significant weather is expected in the form of
severe storms, heavy rain, or extreme heat. The GFS tries to keep a
boundary in place a cross the region and develop convection, but the
ECMWF is much drier and feel that scenario will play out in the
extended part of the forecast.

Northwest flow will develop over the central Conus. Friday and
Saturday look outstanding for those that like sunny skies, light
winds, lower humidity, and highs in the lower 80s. On Sunday a
weakening frontal boundary will move across the Dakotas and moisture
will pool along it leading to a few hundred to a thousand J/kg of
MUCAPE. There is not much forcing with this front, so not expecting
widespread convection, but there is still about a 20 percent chance
of seeing some precip an any particular location.

Looking ahead, as mentioned above the GFS lifts this boundary back
northward and keeps chances for showers and thunderstorms across
much of the area for next week. Can't rule out the GFS, but at this
time prefer the drier solution of the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Main aviation concern is redevelopment of TSRA in the next 6
hours across southern Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin
as a small area of enhanced instability continues to sag southward
along a front. Confidence is high on redevelopment of storms, but
coverage and location remains low through the overnight hours.
Although I can't rule out a complex of storms developing across
southwest Minnesota in the next couple hours, based current trends
of the weakening MCS in southeast South Dakota, will only include
VCTS, with the best chance of widespread and IFR conditions near
KMKT. Otherwise, a general decrease in the overall coverage of
TSRA/SHRA is expected after 12z, with only far southern Minnesota
having any chance of TSRA during the afternoon.

KMSP...

Kept a good chance of +SHRA and VCTS between 10-13z this morning.
Confidence is high on redevelopment of storms, but coverage and
location remains low through the overnight hours. Otherwise,
expect a decrease in activity during the morning, with VFR by the
afternoon. Light south/southwest wind early will become
north/northwest toward morning as a front moves through the area.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Thu...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
411 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

MNZ043>045-049>053-057>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-
WIZ014>016-023>028-270915-
Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-
Chisago-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-
Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-
Chippewa-Eau Claire-
411 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...southwest Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin
and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible today. The main
threat is heavy rain. The threat for severe weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No significant weather is expected aside from a few chances for
thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather or heavy rain is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ041-042-047-048-054>056-064-270915-
Douglas-Todd-Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Yellow Medicine-
411 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No significant weather is expected aside from a few chances for
thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather or heavy rain is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
156 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

WIZ027-028-260730-
Chippewa-Eau Claire-
156 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA AND
NORTHEASTERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES...

At 156 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Seymour, or
near Eau Claire, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and heavy rain is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eau Claire, Altoona, Lake Hallie, Augusta, Fall Creek, Ludington,
Lake Eau Claire County Park, Eau Claire Airport and Seymour.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 68 and 74.
 U.S. Highway 53 between mile markers 86 and 94.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4476 9148 4488 9149 4490 9093 4488 9092
      4461 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 0656Z 266DEG 43KT 4480 9137

jrb

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
356 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

MNZ060>062-068>070-260930-
Anoka-Dakota-Hennepin-Carver-Ramsey-Scott-
356 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

Anoka...Dakota...Hennepin...Carver...Ramsey...Scott...

At 354 AM CDT...very heavy rain was located over eastern Carver
county, most of Scott county, and southwest Hennepin county. The
heavy rain will track northeast across the metro for the next hour,
producing around an inch in a short period of time.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Minneapolis, St. Paul, Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Eagan,
Eden Prairie, Burnsville, Blaine, Minnetonka, Edina and St. Louis
Park.

This includes  Mystic Lake Casino.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 4493 9374 4519 9303 4513 9302 4512 9301
      4498 9298 4489 9299 4489 9302 4485 9301
      4467 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 0854Z 245DEG 39KT 4489 9349

BORGHOFF