Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

&&

.UPDATE...Did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly
to reflect current model and radar trends for the rest of today
and this evening. Expect likely pops over most inland areas
generally north of the I-10 corridor shifting east and south late
this afternoon and this evening. Frequent cloud to ground
lightning, wind gusts to 30 to 40 mph and periods of very heavy
rain will be the main threats with the stronger thunderstorms.
32/ee

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Expect MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities mainly in
and around scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and early tonight. Rain chances taper off after midnight
tonight in the wake of a cold front that moves across the region
by between 06z and 09z early Mon morning. Winds will be southeast
at 5 to 8 knots this afternoon and this evening shifting northwest
then north increasing to 10 to 15 knots with slightly higher
gusts early Mon morning through Mon afternoon. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Showers and thunderstorms will increase through
the day and this evening as a cold front approaches the area.
MVFR/IFR conditions possible in and around showers and storms. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...The upper ridge over the
region will weaken and shift southward today as an upper trough
moves from the northern plains into the Ohio Valley tonight. An
associated cold front will move southeast into the southeastern
states by this afternoon and across the area tonight. Increasing
deep layer moisture ahead of the front combined with increased
forcing as the upper trough and front approach will create
scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and early evening. The coverage of showers and
storms will decrease through the late evening as convergence
along the front weakens as the main upper support pulls away to
the northeast. A drier and cooler airmass will begin to move into
extreme northern zones early Monday morning in the wake of the
cold front. Highs today will be in the mid and upper 80s. Lows in
the upper 50s and low 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...A narrow zone of
moisture will be pushing through the southeastern portion of our
forecast area Monday morning, and there could be a few lingering
showers over this portion of the region before rain chances come
to an end by early Monday afternoon. Otherwise, northerly surface
flow will increase over the area Monday as high pressure builds
from the Plains states to the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley
region. The advertised much cooler and drier airmass is still on
track for Monday, with afternoon highs expected to range from the
lower to mid 70s over interior areas, with upper 70s still
possible along the northwest Florida beaches. Surface dewpoints
should drop into the mid 40s to around 50 region wide by Monday
night, and this drier airmass along with mostly clear skies
should favor a cool night across the region Monday night.
Elevated northerly winds will favor trending toward the slightly
warmer guidance numbers, but will still have lows Monday night
ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s over most interior
locations, with readings ranging from 55-60 along the immediate
coast and beaches.

A deep layer dry airmass will remain in place across our forecast
area Tuesday and Tuesday night underneath a mean northwesterly
mid level flow pattern. Mostly clear and dry conditions will
persist through Tuesday night, with temperatures averaging
slightly below normal. Highs Tuesday are forecast to range in the
mid to upper 70s, while lows Tuesday night should once again fall
into the upper 40s to lower 50s over interior areas, with
readings in the mid 50s to around 60 expected again near the
immediate coast and beaches. /21

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...A dry forecast will
continue through the extended forecast period. A dry northwesterly
flow persists over our region into midweek between an upper
trough over the southeastern states and a building ridge from
south Texas to the ArkLaTex vicinity. The upper ridge should
strengthen and build eastward toward the central Gulf Coast and
Tennessee Valley region late in the week, before continuing to
shift toward the southeastern U.S. by Saturday. Any hint of
deeper moisture looks to remain confined offshore through the
period. Temperatures should slowly modify through the extended
period, with highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s, then
improving to the lower 80s Thursday through Saturday. Lows
Wednesday night will remain cool, averaging from the lower 50s
inland to the lower 60s near the coast. Overnight lows should
modify slightly through the end of the week, with lows by Friday
night ranging from the mid to upper 50s inland to the mid to upper
60s near the coast and beaches. /21

MARINE...A strong cold front approaches from the northwest and is
expected to move into the near shore waters shortly after midnight
tonight, then south of the marine area shortly after sunrise Monday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along
the front, with the best coverage occurring this afternoon through
this evening. Small craft Advisories will likely be required in the
wake of the front, beginning early Monday and continuing through
Monday night. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
529 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-161030-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
529 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A moderate risk of rip currents continues for the beaches of
Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Monday for the
beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Saturday.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-161030-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
529 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a moderate to strong
northerly flow creates hazardous conditions for small craft
Monday, continuing through mid week.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
153 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2017

MSZ075-076-078-079-151945-
Perry MS-Stone MS-Greene MS-George MS-
153 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN GEORGE...SOUTHERN PERRY...SOUTHWESTERN GREENE AND
NORTHEASTERN STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 152 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Maxie, or 7 miles northeast of Wiggins, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont and McLain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8914 3110 8915 3134 8878 3088 8858
      3084 8912 3091 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 251DEG 19KT 3095 8908

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
222 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2017

ALZ059-262-FLZ201-152000-
Baldwin Inland AL-Escambia AL-Escambia Inland FL-
222 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
BALDWIN...SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 221 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest
of Bratt, or 9 miles south of Atmore. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Very Heavy rain and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bratt.

LAT...LON 3077 8749 3087 8775 3106 8758 3091 8732
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 214DEG 2KT 3089 8754