Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
351 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Tropical Storm Harvey will
slowly move northeast tonight and should be located in northeast
Louisiana by daybreak tomorrow. Water vapor shows a large dry slot
on the east side of the circulation that will move into the
western zones this evening, shutting off most convection and
focusing it further east to areas east of I-65. Given the decrease
in convective coverage, will drop the Flash Flood Watch for the
western zones at 7pm and continue it further east through
tomorrow. The current bands of convection will move east through
the evening, producing locally heavy rainfall. Another band of
heavy rain is likely to develop somewhere just east of I-65
overnight, including across a portion of the western FL panhandle.
Guidance disagrees on the extent of this band as the incoming dry
air narrows the high precipitable water axis. Nevertheless, at
least a narrow zone of much higher rainfall is likely to develop
in the predawn hours and continue through Thursday morning.
Additional rainfall totals of 2-3" are likely in many eastern
areas through Thursday, with localized amounts of 5-7" possible.
This could certainly lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.
The dry slot advances east during the day tomorrow and the threat
of heavier rain appears to diminish by Thursday afternoon. There
could be an increase in scattered convection over far inland SE
MS/SW AL in the afternoon due to the closer proximity to Harvey's
circulation, but that rainfall is currently not expected to result
in any additional flooding.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect through 6pm for the western half
of the area. It still appears that the threat will diminish this
evening with the drier air overwhelming convection even with
favorable shear parameters in place.

High surf will continue to impact beaches through tomorrow with
breaker heights of 5-6 ft expected. A high risk of rip currents
also continues tomorrow. Some minor coastal flooding is also
likely early tomorrow morning as tides remain above normal with
strong southerly flow. Inundation of 2 to 2.5 ft above ground is
possible in the typical flood prone areas along the coast and
shores of Mobile Bay. /JFB

.SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Remnant low
of Harvey moves northeast across the Tennessee River Valley Thursday
night then up across the Ohio River Valley on Saturday. Although
Harvey's low lifts away, a lingering moist plume is aligned along
the I-65 corridor into the day Friday, with the higher
environmental moisture (pwats 1.7 to 1.9 inches) being positioned
southeast of the interstate with lower amounts northwest. Within
this moisture axis, mid level impulses shearing northeast on the
eastern periphery of a sharpening mid level trof axis pushing
across the southern US results in a modest chance of showers and
storms along the I-65 corridor with potential of more likely
chances over portions of the western Florida Panhandle, out into
the Gulf waters on Friday. Northern portion of upper trof axis
pivots east over the Appalachians on Saturday, with a westward
extension holding back across the Red River Valley of
Texas/Oklahoma. With the central Gulf coast on the southern flank
of the upper shear zone and potential for a weak front or pressure
trof easing southward to the coast, a small chance of showers and
storms remain in the forecast on Saturday with pwats, although
lower, remaining sufficient to maintain chances.

Highs in the mid 80s on Friday, range from the mid to upper 80s
on Saturday. Overnight lows Thursday night range from the lower to
mid 70s interior to mid to upper 70s beaches. There are
indications that overnight lows may dip into the upper 60s over
the interior both Friday and Saturday nights. Lows along the
beaches generally in the mid 70s heading into the weekend. /10

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Expecting to see scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity to continue through the weekend and
into next week with weak surface front or pressure trof remaining
draped over the forecast area. Best chances will be across the
southern half of the area, where deep layer moisture is expected
to linger (PWATs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches) and the stalled surface
boundary serves as a focus for ascent and convective initiation.
Inland areas (north of Highway 84) more likely to remain dry
Sunday into Sunday night where PWATs are lower north of the
surface boundary. Meanwhile, daytime highs range from the mid to
upper 80's areawide thru Tuesday. Lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s
interior to mid mid 70's beaches.

Heading into the longer term period, model guidance is in relative
good agreement on showing a more substantial front sinking
southward into the Mid-South by Wednesday. This would result in
yet another bump up in thunderstorm activity across the area.
The latest operational GFS run from 30.12Z continues to spin up
another low in the western Gulf ahead of this front while the
ECMWF has its solution of the low hanging down across the
southwest Gulf. Given the divergence in model solutions that far
out, will require further monitoring for a more consistent signal
before making any serious mention or reflection in the forecast.
/10/49

MARINE...A moderate to strong south to southwesterly wind flow
persists thru Thursday night in response to Harvey's low tracking
northeast over the Mississippi Delta into the Tennessee River
Valley. As a result, high seas will continue in the very near term
with a subsiding trend noted through the remainder of the week as
Harvey's influence moves further away. Locally higher winds and
seas, and a few waterspouts are possible in and around the heavier
rain bands moving northward over the marine area in the near
term. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  86  74  87 /  60  50  30  40
Pensacola   79  86  76  86 /  80  70  40  50
Destin      80  85  78  85 /  80  70  50  60
Evergreen   76  86  73  86 /  70  60  30  50
Waynesboro  74  85  70  86 /  50  50  40  20
Camden      75  87  73  86 /  60  60  40  40
Crestview   77  85  74  86 /  80  70  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-053-261-
     263-265.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ALZ055-056-059-
     060-262-264-266.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ263>266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Thursday night for
     GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ630-633-634.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-312100-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
358 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated flash flooding is possible, mainly across areas east of
Interstate 65. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect.

High surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue to impact
local beaches. A High Surf Advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated flash flooding will remain possible through Thursday
morning east of Interstate 65.

High surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue to impact
local beaches through Thursday.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in the typically flood prone
locations Thursday morning during the time of high tide. A Coastal
Flood Advisory is in effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to relay any flooding reports to
the National Weather Service in Mobile.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-312100-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
358 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for strong southerly winds and
high seas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Thursday night for
strong southerly winds and high seas.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
514 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 ENE BARRINEAU PARK    30.70N 87.41W
08/30/2017                   ESCAMBIA           FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PHONE AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD VIEWED
            WEST OF HIGHWAY 29. COULD NOT TELL IF THE CIRCULATION
            EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND

&&

RROGERS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
545 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

ALZ059-FLZ201-203-302330-
Escambia AL-Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
545 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTH
CENTRAL ESCAMBIA...NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA AND NORTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 545 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Bratt, or
near Century, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Century, Flomaton and Pollard.

LAT...LON 3086 8735 3092 8743 3113 8726 3101 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 224DEG 17KT 3092 8736

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
549 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

MSZ076-078-079-302330-
Stone MS-Greene MS-George MS-
549 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WESTERN
GEORGE...SOUTH CENTRAL GREENE AND EAST CENTRAL STONE COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 549 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 16 miles southwest
of Lucedale, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for southeastern
Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3077 8896 3091 8887 3091 8883 3096 8884
      3110 8874 3101 8849 3073 8876 3073 8889
      3075 8891 3074 8891 3076 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 212DEG 33KT 3079 8882

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