Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
346 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Convection will come to an
end this evening as the boundary layer cools due to the loss of
daytime heating. Muggy overnight conditions continue with lows in
the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. Upper
ridging builds over the area on Thursday resulting in less coverage
of showers and thunderstorms. However, with precipitable water
values still around 2 inches, isolated to scattered showers and
storms can be expected with the greatest coverage across
northeastern areas where better deep layer moisture will reside. The
lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms will result in high
temps in the low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast. /13

.SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Upper ridging
centered over the north central Gulf Coast Thursday evening will
begin to get shunted westward with the approach of an inverted
trough axis from the east. Any shower and storm activity we see
on Thursday should quickly wane with the loss of heating in a
generally subsident environment associated with the ridge.

Moisture levels will be on the increase Friday as the influence of
the approaching trough sends precipitable water values back to
near or above the 2 inch mark by Friday evening. With deeper
moisture in place and more favorable large scale lift, we will see
an increase in shower and storm coverage for Friday. Forecast
soundings show around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and some modestly dry
air in the mid levels of the atmosphere across the area Friday
afternoon. Will have to watch any storms that form in this
environment as they will be capable of gusty downburst-type winds,
heavy rain and frequent lightning. Certainly not expecting
widespread severe weather but the strongest thunderstorm cores
could produce winds approaching 50mph given the dry air noted in
the mid levels.

The upper trough axis sets up across the area on Saturday resulting
in more widespread cloudiness, showers and storms. Will carry likely
pops across the southern half of the area with chance pops across
the northern tier. Area forecast soundings continue to show
around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE for Saturday and any of the stronger
storms will be capable of the usual summer time threats of heavy
rain, frequent lightning and localized gusty winds where the
stronger thunderstorm cores collapse.

Temperatures will not vary much over the short term with low to
mid 90s expected inland and upper 80s at the coast. Heat index
values will be in the 103-107 range on Friday and tad cooler on
Saturday. Lows will remain in the mid 70s inland to around 80
along the immediate coast. 05/RR

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Deep layer moisture and
modest support for upward motion associated with the trough axis
will persist on Sunday. Precipitable water values will continue
near or above the 2 inch mark. General shower and storm coverage
will be similar to Saturday with areas of likely pops over
southeast MS with chance pops elsewhere.

Medium range models begin to diverge with respect to timing and
placement of the upper level features into early next week. The
ECMWF keeps the weakening trough in place across the north central
Gulf Coast. The operational GFS tries to build upper ridging
across the area but a quick glance at the GFS ensemble height
anomalies looks more like the ECMWF solution. Will side with the
more consistent Euro solution and keep chance pops across the area
Monday and Tuesday and decrease to slight chance for Wednesday as
ridging builds back in.

Temperatures will remain at seasonal levels through the extended
forecast period...generally low 90s during the day and mid to
upper 70s for lows.

Eclipse: Monday afternoon is still pretty far out in the long range
for a truly skillful cloud cover forecast but a cursory glance at
model relative humidity through the column shows the potential
for a few low level cloud layers around during eclipse time. Cloud
cover climatology across the southeast US at roughly mid-day in
August is not typically favorable for clear skies but stay tuned!
05/RR

&&

.MARINE...A ridge of high pressure from the western Atlantic across
the north central Gulf will remain in place through the end of the
week. This will maintain a generally light to occasionally moderate
west to southwest wind flow. A weak front will approach late in the
weekend resulting in a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Winds and seas will be locally higher near thunderstorm activity.
/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  92  76  91 /  20  30  30  50
Pensacola   78  90  78  91 /  20  40  40  50
Destin      81  89  81  90 /  20  30  40  50
Evergreen   75  93  75  93 /  20  40  20  50
Waynesboro  73  92  74  91 /  20  20  10  50
Camden      75  91  75  92 /  20  40  20  50
Crestview   75  93  76  93 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
611 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-171115-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
611 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat indices will range from around 102 to 106 degrees today.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
across the area today, especially over the western half of the
western half of the region. Convection beginning near the coast
this morning and then developing inland through the afternoon. The
stronger storms that develop will be capable of producing torrential
downpours, which could result in localized flooding of urban and
low lying areas. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes will
accompany most of the storms, and and brief strong and gusty winds
will also be possible with some of the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Afternoon heat indices are expected to continue ranging from 101
to 107 degrees throughout the next seven days.

Scattered to sometimes numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the period as well, with locally heavy rain,
frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusty straight line winds
possible with the stronger thunderstorms through early next week,
mainly in the daytime hours. Torrential downpours could result in
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Tuesday.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-171115-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
611 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Winds and seas will be higher in and around isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storm most numerous over
the coastal waters tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Winds and seas will be higher in and around isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storm will be most numerous
over the coastal waters during the overnight hours.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
602 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

ALZ051-162345-
Choctaw AL-
602 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CHOCTAW
COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 602 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Toxey, or 12
miles southwest of Butler, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman, Pennington, Gilbertown and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8826 3224 8801 3218 8801 3215 8802
      3214 8804 3211 8805 3209 8805 3207 8806
      3206 8807 3207 8810 3205 8812 3202 8812
      3199 8810 3174 8824 3182 8847 3187 8847
      3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 204DEG 24KT 3193 8831