Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
354 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

...Potential For Locally Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding
Continues Through Early This Evening...

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Convective activity over
southeast Mississippi will continue to move northeast and east
through the local area this evening and into the early hours
tonight, with rain gradually ending from west to east after
sunset. Redevelopment of scattered showers and storms will then be
possible late tonight into early Friday before activity increases
in coverage and intensity once again across the area Friday
afternoon. Brief, heavy downpours and lightning will again be the
primary threat, though stronger cells could produce gusty winds
as well. Low temps tonight range from the low to mid 70's and
highs on Friday reach the mid 80's inland and low 80's along the
immediate coast. /49

In terms of flooding potential late this afternoon into this
evening, we will continue the Flash Flood Watch for southern
portions of the CWA until 10 PM, and convection allowing models
still show potential for locally heavy rain to spread along the
current watch area late this afternoon into at early this
evening. Localized heavy rainfall rates could quickly lead to 1 to
3 inches of rainfall in a short period of time, and given the
saturated grounds and earlier heavier rains today, will leave the
watch up for now and let the next shift assess trends. /21

.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Mid level flow
will flatten and become more zonal late Friday night into Saturday
as the upper level trough continues to lift toward the Eastern
Seaboard and as an upper level ridge of high pressure strengthens
over the Gulf of Mexico. Convection should diminish in coverage,
with a few lingering showers or storms still possible mainly over
eastern and northeastern portions of the area Friday evening, with
little activity expected after midnight. Will maintain low POPs
over the northeastern CWA through 06Z, with a dry forecast during
the overnight hours Friday night. We expect coverage of showers
and thunderstorms to increase again during the day Saturday,
especially over southeast MS and interior portions of southwest AL
and the northwest FL Panhandle away from the immediate coast. Will
have POPs ranging from 20-30% near the immediate coast and
beaches, to 40-50% inland during the day Saturday. Coverage may
begin to diminish once again Saturday evening, but will leave at
least a slight chance of convection through the night as embedded
shortwave impulses traverse the area within the moist zonal flow.
A similar pattern continues into Sunday and Sunday night, with
scattered showers and storms once again developing during the day,
with decreasing coverage during the evening/night time hours. We
will need to continue to monitor for locally heavy rainfall and
perhaps some localized flooding through the weekend. Otherwise,
the warm and humid pattern continues with highs Saturday and
Sunday ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, with mid to
upper 80s near the immediate coast. Lows each night should range
from the lower to mid 70s inland, with mid to upper 70s along the
immediate coast and beaches. /21

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Medium range models are in
decent agreement with building the upper ridge axis over the north
central Gulf of Mexico and central Gulf Coast region Monday, and
then farther northward over the central Gulf Coast region and
southeast states and adjacent western Atlantic through midweek.
Despite the presence of the building ridge, enough moisture will
be available for the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day through the period. Heat and humidity
otherwise will be the rule with temperatures trending upward to
around 90 to the lower 90s inland, and upper 80s to around 90 near
the coast, with morning lows remaining in the 70s. /21

&&

.MARINE...Weak high pressure continues over the southeast U.S. and
eastern gulf through Friday then builds west over the northern gulf
through early next week. A light to moderate southerly flow will
persist with the pattern through early next week with higher winds
over the near shore waters each afternoon due to daytime heating.
High rain chances are still expected over the northern gulf through
early Friday before tapering off slowly through the weekend as the
ridge of high pressure over the northern gulf is reinforced from the
north and west. Seas range from 2 to 3 feet into Friday morning then
around 2 feet through early next week. /49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  87  75  89 /  50  60  10  40
Pensacola   75  87  77  87 /  50  50  10  30
Destin      77  86  79  87 /  50  50  10  20
Evergreen   72  87  73  90 /  60  70  20  50
Waynesboro  71  86  72  89 /  50  60  10  50
Camden      72  87  73  90 /  60  70  20  50
Crestview   72  89  74  90 /  50  60  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for MSZ078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
528 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-301030-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
528 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy downpours will accompany thunderstorms today through early
this evening tampering off slowly later tonight through early
Friday morning. Mostly nuisance flooding of poor drainage and low
lying areas can be expected with some flash flooding also possible
especially over George and Stone counties in southeast
Mississippi stretching east into Mobile and Baldwin counties in
southwest Alabama. Remember, between one and two inches of rain
per hour over an urban area can cause flash flooding. Turn around
don't drown!

Many area rivers remain in flood...some still Moderate with some
rivers cresting last night and early this morning. Additional
rainfall will likely prolong this situation a couple of more days.

There is a moderate risk for rips currents through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Mostly nuisance flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas
can be expected with some of the heavier showers or thunderstorms
through Friday afternoon.

Many area rivers will remain in flood...some still Moderate.
Additional rainfall will likely prolong this situation a couple of
more days.

A moderate risk for rip currents will continue on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Wednesday.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-301030-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
528 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Winds and seas will be higher near scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms through early next week.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     FLOOD            4 WNW FORT WALTON BEACH 30.46N 86.64W
06/29/2017                   OKALOOSA           FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OKALOOSA COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED FLOODING ON
            GREEN ACRES ROAD BETWEEN BEAL PARKWAY AND NEAR BEVERLY
            STREET.

&&

CFORD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
354 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

ALZ261-263-MSZ079-292145-
Mobile Central AL-Mobile Inland AL-George MS-
354 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN MOBILE AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

At 353 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Big Point, or
9 miles north of Escatawpa, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Chickasaw, Semmes, Tanner
Williams, I65 And I165, I65 And AL 158, Mobile Regional Airport and
Wilmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8841 3074 8864 3105 8837 3075 8799
      3073 8800 3073 8797 3052 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 226DEG 27KT 3061 8850

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
436 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

ALZ261-263-265-292230-
Mobile Coastal AL-Mobile Central AL-Mobile Inland AL-
436 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 435 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Semmes to near Bayou La Batre,and moving east at
25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Tillmans Corner, Saraland,
Theodore, Chickasaw, Satsuma, Grand Bay, Bayou La Batre, Creola,
Central Dauphin Island, Semmes, I65 And I165, Coden, Mobile Regional
Airport, I65 And AL 158, Fort Gaines, Alabama Port and I10 And I65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 8838 3091 8830 3092 8796 3088 8798
      3088 8797 3082 8797 3080 8799 3079 8797
      3079 8799 3077 8799 3078 8797 3077 8797
      3074 8800 3072 8798 3069 8800 3068 8800
      3070 8798 3022 8803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 264DEG 23KT 3085 8825 3043 8831