Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
619 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Primarily VFR conditions and light southerly winds
expected across the area today, with the exception of some
locally MVFR cigs along the coast at times. Scattered showers and
storms develop this morning and afternoon before gradually
tapering off after sunset. Periods of MVFR and occasional IFR
conditions can be expected in and around convection, with gusty,
erratic winds and frequent lightning also possible. VFR conditions
and light and variable winds once again overnight tonight. /49

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...The current pattern remains
generally unchanged over the next 24 hours with weak mid-level
troughing overhead and a surface ridge of high pressure in the
eastern and central Gulf. Thus, will see scattered showers and
thunderstorms once again Sunday, with activity most likely
initiating near the coast at first this morning before gradually
spreading inland as the day progresses. Brief, heavy downpours and
frequent lightning are the primary impacts with these storms. That
said, with moderate instability (MLCAPE values ~2000 J/kg) progged
to develop this afternoon and a slug of dry air intruding in the mid-
levels, a few strong downburst wind gusts and perhaps some small
hail will also be possible with the strongest storms, generally west
of Interstate 65. Convective activity then tapers off across inland
areas after sunset, with only a few lingering showers possible
heading into tonight.

Temps will depend a bit on rain (and thus, cloud) coverage. At this
time, expecting afternoon highs to reach the upper 80's inland and
mid 80's along the coast, though this forecast could turn out to be
a few degrees too warm for locations that see consistent morning and
afternoon rain and clouds (as was the case Saturday). Low temps
tonight range from low 70's inland to mid 70's along the coast.
/49

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...A low pressure system
is expected to move across the southern or central Gulf during the
period, and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone per the
National Hurricane Center. Please see www.nhc.noaa.gov for the
latest updates on this potential tropical system. A longwave trof
over the eastern states will shift to be oriented mostly over the
east coastal states by Tuesday night while abundant Gulf moisture
remains over the forecast area. Due to uncertainties regarding
the potential tropical cyclone development in the Gulf, have
continued with mostly chance to good chance pops for the area
through the period. Locally heavy rains remain possible through
the period with the stronger storms that develop. Regardless of
the potential development and movement of the tropical system,
long period swell will likely affect coastal areas which could
result in a high risk of rip currents and possibly heavy surf.
Highs on Monday will be mostly near 90 then highs on Tuesday will
be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be mostly in the lower 70s
with mid 70s at the coast. /29

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...While there are
uncertainties regarding the potential Gulf tropical cyclone, the
longwave trof located near the coast of the eastern U.S. moves off
into the western Atlantic with abundant Gulf moisture expected to
remain in place over the forecast area through the period. Have
continued with chance to good chance pops through Saturday, with
locally heavy rains possible with the stronger storms. Long
period swell may continue to affect coastal areas on Wednesday and
Thursday which could maintain a high risk of rip currents and
heavy surf. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s each day through
Friday, with upper 80s prevailing on Saturday. Lows will range
from the lower 70s inland to the mid to possibly upper 70s near
the coast. /29

MARINE...Surface ridging over the eastern Gulf will maintain a
light onshore flow through the remainder of the weekend before the
ridge is pushed north and a moderate easterly flow sets up during
the early part of the upcoming week. Beyond that point, the forecast
becomes a bit more uncertain. A broad area of low pressure currently
over the western Caribbean is progged to move into the
southern/central Gulf early to mid-week, potentially developing into
a more organized tropical or subtropical system as it does.
Uncertainty remains quite high among models regarding the track of
this potential system, with solutions at this time ranging from the
Texas coast to the central Florida panhandle. However, have
increasing confidence that the local marine area will see at least
some impact in the form of increasing onshore swell, and thus
building wave heights, heading into midweek. Please continue to
check back for updates as we closely monitor this system. /49

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
528 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-191030-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
528 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop inland
this afternoon and evening. While primary impacts include locally
heavy downpours and frequent lightning, there is a marginal risk
for severe weather this afternoon and evening for areas west of
Interstate 65, where any stronger thunderstorms could be capable
of producing isolated damaging wind gusts as well. Training
clusters of slow-moving or back-building thunderstorms could also
lead to localized nuisance flooding this afternoon and evening,
especially inland where storm coverage should be greatest.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day.
Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are
possible with the stronger storms.

There is the potential for rough surf and a high risk of rip
currents beginning late Monday or Tuesday and continuing through
much of the remaining period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Friday.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-191030-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
528 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop today.
Frequent lightning along with locally higher winds, waves and seas
will be possible near storms. Also, visibility could be briefly
reduced to less than a mile at times in heavier rains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Frequent lightning along with locally higher winds, waves and
seas will be possible near storms through the period. Also,
visibility could be briefly reduced to less than a mile at times
in any heavier rains.

Moderate to occasionally strong winds well offshore may create
hazardous conditions for small craft mainly Tuesday through
Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1029 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

FLZ205-181615-
Okaloosa Inland FL-
1029 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...EAST
CENTRAL OKALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1029 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Crestview, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8652 3056 8653 3055 8653 3054 8659
      3070 8665 3084 8639 3058 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1529Z 245DEG 11KT 3065 8654