Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
402 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Numerous showers and thunderstorms
continue to form across all locations of the forecast area this
afternoon moving southward towards the coast at 25 to 30 mph.
Further development is likely across most locations of the forecast
area this afternoon and well to the north over central parts of AL
and MS also moving southward towards the coast. As a result have
increased rain chances for most locations of the forecast area this
evening and overnight due to a strong mid level impulse over
northern AL and MS dropping southward towards the coast overnight
combined with a diffluent pattern aloft. With pwats still running
around 1.8 inches combined with a dry layer generally above 15kft
and lapse rates increasing to near 7.0c/km a few strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms can be expected for the rest of this
afternoon and early this evening especially over northern and
central parts of the forecast area or along and north of highway 84,
continuing through about 7 pm cdt this evening. Gusty straight line
winds from 50 to 60 mph...medium to large hail and frequent cloud to
ground lightning strikes will be main concern with the stronger
thunderstorms through early this evening. For late tonight and early
Fri expect showers and thunderstorms to begin redeveloping along the
coast and offshore transitioning inland from mid morning through Fri
afternoon. Similar to today better forcing is still noted in the mid
levels from early Fri morning through Fri afternoon along with
moderate instability and moisture leading to better than average
coverage of showers thunderstorms through Fri afternoon. With the
better forcing noted and drier air still present aloft a few strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out.

As for temps will lean towards the current blended guidance and
adjust slightly for better consistency with surrounding WFO'S.
Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 70s inland and the
middle to upper 70s along the immediate coast. Highs Fri will range
from the middle to upper 80s inland and the middle 80s along the
immediate coast. 32/ee

.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...An upper trough
develops over the Southeast, with the axis running ssw over the
forecast area by Friday evening. From there, it remains pretty
much stationary through the rest of the short term. With an upper
ridge off the East coast, a surface ridge becomes more organized
and builds west over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Looking closer
at the guidance, the soupy airmass currently over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley and Southeast sees drier pocket moving
inland due to alternating small pockets of subsidence from the
shortwave energy swirling around in the upper trough. These
pockets of drier air will help to cut down the chance of rain as
we move into the weekend, with guidance varying (GFS/NAM) on
where the moist pockets and high PoPs land each day. Have went
with a chance at best for each day as a result. For the
progression of the precip, kept the usual summer progression with
precip starting to develop south of the coast overnight, then
build onshore as the land heats. Could see a few strong to severe,
summer-type pulse storms with some localized ponding of water, but
m not anticipating any organized severe systems.

With the area seeing decent heating during the morning and early
afternoon, have went with highs around seasonal, and with moisture
level continuing to be on the high side, even with the drier
pools working in, overnight lows a bit above seasonal. The result,
Highs around 90s, overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

/16

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Into Tuesday, a closed low
moves over the Great Lakes, re-enforcing the deep trough over the
Conus. There is some difference between the ECMWF and GFS on
where the trough axis lies (and any positive vertical motion), and
ultimately the chance of rain. Both models are advertising a
shortwave swinging around the main upper slow, pushing a front
towards the forecast area where it ultimately stalls over roughly
near I65 Tueday evening into Wednesday. With the boundary around
have went with a better than seasonal chance of rain in the
extended, with a chance to likely chance of shra/tsra each day
the result. With the forecast area in an upper trough and daily
shra/tsra, temps around to bit below seasonal expected. This means
highs in the upper 80s to around 90, lows ranging from around 70
to the mid 70s.

Taking a look at the possible system over the Bay of Campeche,
both GFS and ECMWF have development Sunday night through Monday.
Of the system remains in the Bay, it will surface and ultimately
move towards the south Tx coast (ala ECMWF). If it sees any
northeast movement, upper shear will help to keep the system from
developing (GFS). Either way one looks at it, it will not affect
the area through this package.

/16

&&

.MARINE...A surface ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic
will continue to slowly build west over the north central gulf
through the weekend eventually leading to less coverage of showers
and thunderstorms over the marine area by the weekend. With this
pattern a light to occasionally moderate southwest to westerly flow
will continue over the marine area through Sun with the highest
winds occurring near the coast and over inland bays and sounds
during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Seas will
continue run around 1 to 2 feet through the remainder of the week
then slowly build over the weekend mostly from increasing swell
generally from the south due to an area of low pressure slowly
moving into and developing over the southwest gulf. As usual wind
and waves will continue to be locally higher with the stronger
thunderstorms the the forecast period. Frequent lightning along with
visibilities briefly reduced to less than a mile will also be
possible with the heavier showers or thunderstorms through the
forecast period. 32/ee

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  88  72  90 /  70  60  20  30
Pensacola   76  86  75  88 /  60  50  20  30
Destin      76  84  76  87 /  50  50  20  40
Evergreen   71  88  71  91 /  70  60  30  40
Waynesboro  72  90  71  92 /  70  60  20  20
Camden      72  89  72  92 /  70  60  30  40
Crestview   72  88  70  92 /  60  60  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
425 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-161200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
425 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An increased coverage of showers and storms returns today. Some
storms possibly strong at times with these potentially more
focused along and northwest of I-65 into the afternoon. Main
impacts in and near storms will be brief strong wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours.
Although the risk of widespread severe weather is low,
forecasters cannot entirely discount an isolated occurrence.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Brief strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rain will be the main impacts from summer storms during the
outlook.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Wednesday.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-161200-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
425 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Frequent cloud to water lightning along with locally higher
winds, waves and seas will be common with the passage of isolated
to scattered marine storms. Also, visibility could be briefly
reduced to less than a mile at times in any heavier rains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Frequent cloud to water lightning along with locally higher
winds, waves and seas will be common with the passage of isolated
to scattered marine storms. Also, visibility could be briefly
reduced to less than a mile at times in any heavier rains.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
318 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     LIGHTNING        4 WNW MILTON            30.63N 87.09W
06/15/2017                   SANTA ROSA         FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EM REPORTS A HOUSE FIRE DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKE ON
            CAMILLE GARDENS CIRCLE IN MILTON

&&

RROGERS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
351 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

ALZ051>053-261-262-152145-
Clarke AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Choctaw AL-Washington AL-
Mobile Inland AL-
351 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...NORTHERN MOBILE...SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN
BALDWIN...WASHINGTON AND WESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 350 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Coffeeville to 6 miles east of Deer Park,and
moving east at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Citronelle, Chatom, Saint Stephens, Wagarville, Leroy, Deer
Park, Tibbie, Calvert, Mount Vernon, Millry, Silas, Fruitdale,
Coffeeville, McIntosh and Movico.

LAT...LON 3104 8783 3107 8842 3181 8842 3188 8779
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 249DEG 14KT 3169 8813 3120 8820

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
421 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

ALZ051-052-MSZ067-076-152230-
Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
421 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN
WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 421 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles east of Waynesboro to 6 miles southwest of
Fruitdale,and moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, State Line and Buckatunna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8842 3117 8842 3117 8859 3184 8869
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 224DEG 11KT 3171 8855 3127 8848

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
449 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

ALZ052-053-261-MSZ067-076-152300-
Clarke AL-Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
449 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND EASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 449 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Tibbie to 7 miles west of Citronelle,and moving
southeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Citronelle, Chatom, Leakesville, Chunchula, Saint Stephens,
Wagarville, Leroy, Gulfcrest, Deer Park, Tibbie, Calvert, Mount
Vernon, Millry, State Line, Buckatunna, Fruitdale, McIntosh and
Movico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 8847 3170 8846 3170 8840 3149 8771
      3080 8815 3096 8843 3100 8843 3100 8848
      3115 8874
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 324DEG 44KT 3133 8819 3107 8835

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