Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR vis/cigs expected across much of the area
through the period, with the exception being along the coast
where some locally MVFR cigs will persist. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms currently developing along the coast will progress
inland and become more numerous during the afternoon and evening
hours before tapering off after sunset tonight. A few showers
could linger overnight along the coast before a similar pattern
ramps back up after sunrise tomorrow. Winds remain generally light
out of the southeast through the period. /49

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Inverted surface trof moving
north across the eastern Gulf this morning creating some unsettled
weather over the Gulf. This feature will move inland across our area
today, and combined with daytime heating allows for the
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the region by this afternoon. Tonight, convective coverage
will diminish over inland areas and perhaps increase offshore,
but a small chance for showers and storms will continue overnight
for inland areas. In general, a surface high pressure ridge will
persist over the area through tonight, with a light southeasterly
flow expected. This onshore flow has resulted in increased
moisture, with pwats increasing from around 1.0 inch early this
morning to near 2.0 inches by late tonight.

High temperatures today expected to be similar to those of
yesterday, rising to the mid and upper 80s over interior locations
and low to mid 80s close to and along the coast. Low temperatures
tonight moderating slightly over past several nights, ranging
from the lower 70s over interior locations and mid 70s over
coastal areas. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...Will start the week
with a weak inverted trof at mid and high levels from the
southeast US into the northern Gulf. A weakness in the high level
height field looks to persist over the southeast US Tuesday,
between a deep layer ridge off the southeast US coast and potential
ridging nosing into the Lower MS River Valley. At the surface,
high pressure over the southwest Atlantic noses westward into the
southeast and maintains a moist, southeasterly component of flow
off the Gulf. A typical, summer-time convective mode is forecast
to begin the first half of the week with potential of scattered
to numerous storms each day when better instability is realized.
Chances of storms lower each night as airmass undergoes stabilization.
Storms will be efficient in the production of locally heavy downpours,
frequent lightning and strong gusty winds.

Daytime highs in mid 80s interior to lower half of the 80s beach
areas. Overnight lows 69 to 72 interior to mid 70s coast. /10

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Broad trof at mid to
high levels over the southeast US Wednesday and Thursday becomes
more defined Friday and Saturday over the Tennessee River Valley
to central Gulf per the latest 11.00Z operational GFS, ECMWF, and
longer range ensemble solutions. Deep moisture looks to remain mostly
unchanged with pwats ranging from 1.75 to 2.0 inches. These
values are just above what we normally see across the local area
for the middle of June. Considering the passage of subtle mid
level impulses embedded in the weaker height field aloft,
moisture availability and daily instability, will maintain a
chance of storms each day during the outlook.

Daytime highs mid to upper 80s interior to lower half of the 80s
beach areas. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. /10

MARINE...A weak inverted trof noted in surface data and
satellite imagery lifting north across the eastern Gulf early this
morning will bring a return of scattered showers and storms to the
marine area today. This feature will bring a slight increase in
winds today, with southeast flow up to 10 to 15 knots, which will
continue into late Monday. Otherwise, surface high pressure ridging
in from the east will prevail over the marine area through the
period, but will gradually be weakening slightly. This will result
in a continued light to occasionally moderate southeasterly wind
flow through Wednesday, becoming a little more south to
southwesterly Wednesday night through Thursday night as the ridge
weakens slightly. Continued scattered showers and storms expected
over the marine area through the entire forecast period, especially
during the late night and early morning hours, then less likely
during the afternoon and evening hours (as better rain chances shift
inland during that timeframe). Seas initially around 3 to 4 feet
offshore today through Monday night, but then subsiding to around
2 feet Tuesday through Thursday night. No headlines required.
12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
248 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

ALZ060-112030-
Covington AL-
248 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
COVINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 247 PM CDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was located 10
miles southeast of Andalusia, moving north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Opp, River Falls, Heath and Gantt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 3140 8620 3110 8628 3109 8649 3152 8659
      3153 8640 3145 8640 3149 8636 3149 8634
      3153 8630 3153 8628 3146 8628 3145 8626
      3144 8626 3144 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 173DEG 18KT 3118 8640

Butts