Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
426 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Complicated weather pattern with
periods of rain, heavy at times, possible but timing and location of
heavier rainfall is difficult to pinpoint. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms have been streaming northwest across the area
today, and this general trend will continue tonight and into Sunday.
PWAT's generally around 2 inches through the near term, so showers
and storms likely to be efficient rain producers. Nearly all of the
Hi-Res models (ARW's HRRR, 3KM NAM) indicate this scattered activity
to continue into early this evening, then a larger more organized
convective system move east into and across most of the forecast
area mid evening through the overnight hours. With this some locally
heavy rainfall will be possible overnight, but believe that a fairly
progressive movement of the complex across our area will preclude
the necessity of a Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for tonight. Local FFG
indicates 1" hour and 5" three hour total for Flash Flooding, and
for now we don't anticipate exceeding those amounts tonight, at
least over a large area. However, some nuisance flooding of urban
and/or poor drainage areas could be possible in locations where
heavier rainbands may set up. Will have to monitor later data for the
possibility of a FFA late tonight or tomorrow, perhaps even into the
early part of next week. All of the Hi-Res models indicated above
indicate that an outflow boundary associated with tonights
convection may well move offshore and push greater chances for
additional pcpn tomorrow offshore (or at least limit it to coastal
and southeastern portions of the forecast area). If this occurs,
pcpn coverage (and rainfall-QPF totals) could possibly be much lower
over interior sections of the forecast area on Sunday than current
forecast indicates. We will have to monitor for this potential. This
uncertainty with regard to rainfall potential on Sunday, combined
with the expected progressive movement of the system tonight
mentioned above, gives further justification for holding off on the
FFA at this time. Only a marginal risk of severe storms expected.
Enough instability this afternoon (MLCAPE up to 2500 J/KG), but
lacking in forcing with Bulk Shear generally no more than about 25
KNOTS and Wet Bulb Zero heights between 10-13 KFT. Breezy onshore
southeast to south flow will continue to create a High Risk of rip
currents along area Gulf Beaches. Low temperatures tonight mainly in
the lower 70s. High temperatures on Sunday mainly in the lower 80s,
but could be a few degrees cooler or warmer, depending on the
precipitation coverage. 12/DS

.SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...Rain continues
to be the main story during the short term. The region remains
between a broad upper level ridge east of the area and a broad
upper level trough well off to our northwest. This upper level
pattern remains relatively zonal through the short term. At the
surface, the southwesterly to westerly winds will keep the doors
wide open for increasing moisture as PWATs surge to 2+" at times
in the short term period. Abundant moisture in combination with a
stalled frontal boundary across the northern Gulf Coast and
several upper level disturbances that move through the region in
the short term, will result in widespread showers and storms.

The best coverage of showers and storms appears to be overnight
Monday into Tuesday as a shortwave quickly shifts east through
the area. Uncertainty still exists with the exact timing, but
heavy rain will be possible. Some storms will be capable of
producing frequent lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds.
Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Additional rainfall
amounts will range from nearly 2" inland to 3" across the
southern portion of the area with locally higher amounts
possible. This will likely result in minor flooding problems
across the area and will need to be monitored closely.

On Monday, temperatures may rebound into the mid to low 80s across
the area if we see a break in the rain during the morning and
early afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday will struggle to reach
80 due to cloud cover and widespread rain across the region.
Overnight temperatures will fall into the 60s inland each night
with temperatures closer to 70 along the coastline. 07/MB

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The broad upper level
trough to the northwest of the region during the short term will
dig south early in the long term then sweep across the area and
up the northern seaboard late in the week. Another frontal passage
is expected mid week, which will keep rain chances high through
much of the day Wednesday before tapering off from west to east
overnight. Scattered showers and storms will persist on Wednesday
ahead of the next frontal passage. Some storms may produce
frequent lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated.

In the wake of the front, cooler and drier air filters back into
the region beginning Wednesday night. Overnight temperatures will
fall into the 50s on both Thursday and Friday. Daytime
temperatures will rebound behind the front as we approach the
weekend. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...A surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf
coast will weaken through the remainder of the weekend, but remain
intact over area coastal waters into the early part of next week. A
frontal boundary will drift south down toward the coast by late
Monday into Tuesday, but likely remain just north of the marine area.
A moderate onshore flow will continue through early Sunday and then
gradually weaken late in the day into Sunday night. The front along
the coast may move just offshore by Wednesday, bringing a moderate
offshore flow for the latter half of the coming week. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  83  68  84 /  80  80  60  60
Pensacola   73  81  70  83 /  80  80  70  60
Destin      75  80  73  84 /  70  80  70  60
Evergreen   71  83  68  84 /  80  70  60  60
Waynesboro  70  80  66  83 /  70  80  40  50
Camden      70  81  67  82 /  80  70  60  40
Crestview   72  83  68  85 /  80  80  70  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1144 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-211645-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
1144 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the region this afternoon and tonight. A few storms may
become strong to severe this afternoon into this evening with
damaging winds and small hail possible. The overall severe
threat is low.

Nuisance flooding is possible tonight, especially in those areas
that see numerous storms.

Moderate onshore winds and long period swell will combine to
create a high risk of rip currents on area beaches through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue across the area Sunday through Wednesday. Strong to
possibly severe storms are again possible Sunday into Sunday
night, with strong to damaging winds the primary threat. Small
hail is also possible.

With an extended period of rain lasting through Wednesday, an
increasing possibility of nuisance flooding exists.

Moderate onshore winds and long period swell will combine to
create a high risk of rip currents on area beaches through
Sunday. At least a moderate risk of rip currents will likely
continue into mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-211645-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1144 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Small craft should exercise caution this afternoon and tonight, as
moderate winds will frequently approach the 15 to 20 knot range.
Choppy conditions on area bays and protected waters, seas offshore
up to 4 or 5 feet. Winds and seas higher near the showers and
storms. These conditions could be hazardous for small craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A moderate flow continues over the marine area through Sunday,
then subsides slightly through midweek, before increasing again
late in the week. Conditions occasionally hazardous for small
craft through Sunday.

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