Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
649 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions this evening with patchy fog
developing overnight. Chances for showers and thunderstorms late
tonight and especially toward daybreak on Wednesday. Reduced
ceilings and visbys can be expected in and around storms on
Wednesday before conditions improve late in the period. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...For tonight and Wed expect
another round of severe weather beginning near the MS/AL/NWFL
coast and offshore early Wed morning then shifting inland and
eastward during the late morning and afternoon hours. This active
pattern is from a combination of weather elements coming into
phase overnight and during the day on Wed where a well defined
warm front located well offshore this afternoon advances inland to
the coast before sunrise Wed morning then well inland over central
portions of Al and Ga by late morning and afternoon, combined with
a strong upper level subtropical jet approaching from the west.
This upper system from the west then merges with a southward
moving polar jet on the back side of the main upper trof late in
the day helping to push everything further east by late afternoon.
In the lower to mid levels a developing h8 jet is also depicted by
early to mid morning Wed located over much of the forecast area
helping to increase the low level shear, as mentioned earlier,
which will increase the chance for developing supercells in the
warm sector south of the warm front mostly from mid morning
through early to mid afternoon. As the day progresses
thunderstorms will shift further east especially well inland
generally north of Mobile AL and Lucedale MS. Latest model
soundings show a weak cap at around 2k ft over most inland areas
through about 8 AM CDT resulting in more elevated convection
during the early morning hours followed by more surface based
convection through wed afternoon. With the daytime heating better
instability develops over coastal and eastern portions of the
forecast area resulting in the best chance for severe weather
generally along and east of the I-65 corridor during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. Latest guidance also depicts
the best moisture convergence beginning along the MS/AL coast by
around midnight then mostly over south central Al and the western
Fl panhandle by 12z Wed, then shifting north and east through late
Wed afternoon. These areas just mentioned above is where the best
rainfall totals should occur with rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches likely, with locally higher amounts generally along and
south of the I-10 corridor.

As for temps with an approaching warm front from the south lows
tonight will be running well above average with temps ranging from
the mid 60s over the northern half of the forecast area and the
upper 60s to lower 70s further south to the immediate coast. Highs
Wed will be tad cooler compared to today due to clouds and rain,
ranging from the lower 80s for most inland areas and the upper 70s
to near 80 along the immediate coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...A large
trough over the eastern CONUS ushers drier and cooler air into the
area in the wake of a strong cold front, leading to a cooling
trend in temperatures and a clearing trend in skies through the
short term. As a result, expect lows Wednesday night to dip into
the upper 40's to low 50's and highs Thursday afternoon to only
reach the upper 60's to low 70's. The trend continues through the
end of the week as northwest flow is maintained along the back
edge of the trough, meaning temperatures Thursday and Friday
nights continue to dip into the low to mid 40's and afternoon
highs on Friday remain cool in the upper 60's to low 70's. /49

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...As the trough pushes east
over the western Atlantic, ridging builds into the eastern CONUS in
its wake. In response to this shift, high pressure at the surface
begins to build eastward into the southeastern U.S. and western
Atlantic by the end of the day Saturday. This will lead to a wind
shift to southerly across the central Gulf coast, beginning the slow
return of moisture through the remainder of the weekend into early
next week. A warming trend is also expected given the shift in flow,
with mid 70's Saturday afternoon becoming low 80's Sunday through
Tuesday, and overnight lows in the upper 40's Saturday night
becoming mid 50's Sunday and Monday nights. Even with the return of
warmer temps and moisture, currently expecting the long term to
remain dry as broad subsidence beneath the upper-level ridge
suppresses cloud cover and any chances for rain. /49

MARINE...Southerly winds and seas will build late tonight and on
Wed ahead of a strong upper level disturbance and surface cold
front approaching from the west. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected with a few strong to severe storms
possible by early Wed morning. Seas will build to 5 to 7 feet with
the strong onshore flow on Wed then build to around 9 feet well
offshore as a strong northwest flow develops in the wake of the
cold front late Wed night through Thu morning. A moderate to
strong northwest flow will then persist through early Sat morning
as strong high pressure from the northwest slowly builds south
over the north central gulf. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-052345-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
643 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across all of
southeast Mississippi, southwest and south central Alabama and the
northwest Florida Panhandle late tonight, mainly after midnight.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats
overnight, though an isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

There is a high risk of rip currents continues across coastal
portions of Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a Moderate Risk of Severe Storms on Wednesday for much
of the eastern portion of the area, generally along and to the
east of a Grove Hill to Gulf Shores line, with an Enhanced Risk
to Slight Risk of severe storms for remaining areas. Damaging
winds, large hail and tornadoes will be possible with severe
storms that develop Wednesday. Isolated strong tornadoes are
possible, especially in the Moderate Risk area. Frequent cloud to
ground lightning and very heavy rains can also be expected with
the stronger storms.

A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for coastal portions of
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle until 7 PM CDT
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The activation of storm spotters and emergency management
personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed
for portions of the region tonight through Wednesday.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-052345-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
643 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe storms will be possible over the marine area
through late tonight. High winds and seas, large hail and
isolated tornadoes will be possible with severe storms that
develop. Frequent lightning and very heavy rains will also
accompany the strongest storms that develop.

Strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions
for small craft late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday. Damaging wind
gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible with
severe storms that develop. Frequent lightning and very heavy
rains will also accompany the strongest storms that develop.

Strong winds and building seas over the marine area will likely
create hazardous conditions for small craft Wednesday through
Thursday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1239 AM CDT WED APR 5 2017

ALZ059-262-FLZ201-050630-
Baldwin Inland AL-Escambia AL-Escambia Inland FL-
1239 AM CDT WED APR 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTH
CENTRAL BALDWIN...WESTERN ESCAMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1239 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest
of Atmore, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Atmore, McCullough, I65 And CR 1, I65 And AL 113, I65 And AL 21 and
Poarch Creek Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8775 3126 8741 3126 8700 3124 8698
      3085 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 230DEG 40KT 3097 8762

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
118 AM CDT WED APR 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HAIL             2 S I65 AND AL 21       31.08N 87.48W
04/05/2017  E0.75 INCH       ESCAMBIA           AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED REPORT OF PENNY SIZE HAIL ALONG
            HWY 21 NORTH OF ATMORE

&&

RROGERS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
206 AM CDT WED APR 5 2017

MSZ067-050715-
Wayne MS-
206 AM CDT WED APR 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

At 206 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
of Mill Creek, or 15 miles northeast of Laurel, moving northeast at
50 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Wayne
County.

LAT...LON 3182 8894 3183 8876 3186 8861 3167 8888
      3173 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 224DEG 45KT 3179 8890

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
217 AM CDT WED APR 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 AM     HAIL             1 E APPLETON            31.22N 87.11W
04/05/2017  E0.75 INCH       ESCAMBIA           AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED REPORT OF DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL
            ALONG MASON MILL POND RD NORTH OF BREWTON, AL. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR DATA.

&&

RROGERS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
232 AM CDT WED APR 5 2017

ALZ051-050800-
Choctaw AL-
232 AM CDT WED APR 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 231 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Butler,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler and Pennington.

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3230 8794 3230 8798
      3228 8802 3217 8801 3215 8802 3214 8804
      3209 8804 3206 8807 3207 8810 3205 8812
      3201 8811 3199 8810 3200 8808 3197 8812
      3209 8827 3231 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 223DEG 40KT 3209 8814

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
259 AM CDT WED APR 5 2017

ALZ058-050830-
Crenshaw AL-
259 AM CDT WED APR 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTY UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 259 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Dozier, or 14
miles southwest of Luverne, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Luverne, Brantley, Dozier and Glenwood.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
south central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3153 8616 3153 8619 3151 8620 3148 8628
      3152 8628 3153 8630 3149 8634 3149 8636
      3145 8640 3153 8640 3153 8649 3154 8650
      3158 8650 3179 8615 3166 8615 3166 8616
      3162 8618 3162 8615 3154 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 239DEG 37KT 3154 8640