Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
300 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/... Ongoing strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms east of the Alabama River will continue to
move east this evening, with the thunderstorms exiting the eastern
portion of the forecast area between 10 pm and midnight. Isolated
to scattered rain showers in the wake of the line of
thunderstorms and along a weak cold front approaching the region
from the northwest will linger through this evening, and then
finally move east of the forecast are by late tonight as the front
passes through. Skies will clear on Friday followed by sunny
skies and continued above normal temperatures.

Low temperatures tonight will range from 52 to 57 degrees, and
around 60 degrees along the beaches. High temperatures Friday will
range from 78 to 83 degrees inland areas, with mid 70s along the
beaches. /22

.SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Upper riding
builds over the area through Saturday as a trough digs over the
southwestern states. This results in dry weather with above normal
temperatures. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to
mid 80s in most areas. The ridge begins to move eastward on Sunday
as the strong shortwave and an associated sfc low move east.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the area late in
the day on Sunday with the better chances coming Sunday night. /13

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...As this system ejects
northeast Sunday night into Monday it will take on a neutral to
slightly negative tilt. Based on the position of the upper
shortwave and associated sfc low, the central Gulf Coast will be
in a favorable position for seeing strong to severe thunderstorms
Sunday night into Monday. Deep layer wind fields along with
instability levels will set the stage for all modes of severe
storms. Strong forcing along with slow movement will also lead the
potential of very heavy rain. This will definitely bear watching
over the next few days. A dry period follows on Tuesday into early
Wednesday. The next system approaches on Wednesday as northern
stream trough moving across the Ohio Valley sends a cold front
southward toward the Gulf Coast. This will bring the next chance
of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
/13

&&

.MARINE...Moderate southerly wind flow will shift west to northwest
overnight and diminish to 10 to 15 knots. Southerly winds redevelop
over the weekend and building by early next week as another upper
system approaches from the west. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      55  83  57  83 /  40   0   0   0
Pensacola   59  79  60  80 /  80   0   0   0
Destin      63  77  62  77 /  90  10   0   0
Evergreen   54  82  53  84 /  60   0   0   0
Waynesboro  52  82  52  84 /  40   0   0   0
Camden      53  81  53  83 /  50   0   0   0
Crestview   55  81  54  85 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
555 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-311100-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
555 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A threat for severe weather is expected today through this evening
across the entire region. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will
be the the primary severe weather threats. However, a brief tornado
cannot be completely ruled out, especially over our northwestern
counties. The potential for severe weather will move into interior
southeast Mississippi early this morning, spreading into southwest
Alabama by late morning through midday, and then east of Interstate
65 during the late afternoon and early evening. Storms may become
a little less numerous over interior areas late this afternoon,
but remain numerous near the coast and just offshore. Storms over
interior may increase slightly in coverage once again during the
early evening in association with a front that will be moving east
across the region. Most locations will likely be impacted by
showers and storms today. Locally heavy rainfall is possible,
especially near the coast, where 1 to 2 inches of rain may result
in minor flooding of low lying and urban areas.

A High Risk of rip currents will develop along the Gulf beaches of
Alabama and northwest Florida today and continue through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe weather is again be possible Sunday night into Monday.
Please stay tuned for additional information as this event draws
closer in time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks may become
necessary today and again late Sunday night into Monday.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-311100-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
555 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hazardous wind and wave conditions for small craft will be possible
today through Friday ahead of and in the wake of a frontal passage.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible over
the marine area today through this evening, creating locally
higher winds and seas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Hazardous winds and waves are likely once again Sunday night into
Monday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required by that time. Severe
thunderstorms will also be possible during this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
258 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 E DAUPHIN ISLAND      30.25N 88.07W
03/30/2017  M44 MPH          MOBILE             AL   C-MAN STATION

            DAUPHIN ISLAND CMAN STATION MEASURED A 38 KNOT WIND GUST.

&&

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 E DAUPHIN ISLAND      30.26N 88.08W
03/30/2017  M49 MPH          GMZ631             AL   MESONET

            NOS STATION AT DAUPHIN ISLAND MEASURED A 43 KNOT WIND
            GUST.

&&

JFB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
325 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

ALZ264-FLZ201-203-302100-
Baldwin Central AL-Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
325 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN...NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA AND CENTRAL ESCAMBIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 324 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles west of
Gonzalez, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Molino.

LAT...LON 3059 8741 3073 8749 3098 8721 3076 8701
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 232DEG 17KT 3063 8749

RR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
425 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     TSTM WND GST     15 SSE ROMAR BEACH      30.07N 87.56W
03/30/2017  M43 MPH          GMZ650             AL   BUOY

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 37KTS RECORDED AT BUOY 42012.

&&

DJOHNSON

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