Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1055 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance....MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities late tonight
continuing through midday fri. The lower ceilings and
visibilities will be in and around isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms moving in from the west and north overnight
continuing through early to mid afternoon. Patchy fog and low
status will also develop overnight continuing through mid morning
Fri. Winds will be southwest at 5 to 10 knots this evening
gradually shifting west then northwest overnight through fri
evening. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1051 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

UPDATE...Did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly
to increase rain chances a tad for this evening occurring mostly
over the western half of the forecast area or generally along and
west of a line stretching from Camden Alabama to Wiggins
Mississippi. Latest radar trends show isolated to scattered
thunderstorms over the lower part of Mississippi stretching south
over interior sections of Louisiana this evening moving east at
25 to 30 mph. Although most of the model guidance does show a
weakening trend mainly for this evening have opted to extend the
chance of rain a little further east. Better development is still
expected after midnight tonight as better mid level forcing well
to the nw early this evening continues to approach the central
gulf coast overnight and early Fri morning. 32/ee

AVIATION... 00Z issuance...MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities
later this evening and overnight continuing through the day on
fri. The lower ceilings and visibilities will be in and around
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving in from the
west and north overnight continuing through much of the day on
Fri. Patchy fog and low status will also develop late this evening
and overnight continuing through mid morning Fri possibly leading
to brief periods of LIFR cigs and visibilities mostly between
10.09z and 10.14z. Winds will be south to southwest at 5 to 10
knots early this evening gradually shifting west then northwest
overnight through fri afternoon. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Weather maps show a rather
broad west northwest flow aloft extending from the southern high
plains into the southeast. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
surface front was draped across the central US where forecasters
are beginning to see convection forming over Missouri. Along the
coast, high pressure ridge was positioned from GA into the Gulf.
Around the western periphery of the high, surface based moisture
has been steadily increasing with dewpoints lifting up into the
mid to upper 50s over the western zones. Going into tonight, the
mean high level flow becomes more northwesterly in direction and
favors the southeastward movement of the storms out of Missouri
and into the Mid-South. There are indications in the high
resolution HRRR model guidance that these storms may make it into
the interior of the local area shortly before daybreak Friday
morning ahead of a front that pushes southward over the deep
south. There is also potential for patchy nighttime fog
development with the latest short range ensembles and HRRR
focusing this along the southern half of the area generally south
of US Hwy 84. A chance of showers and storms follow for Friday
morning. Chances decrease by afternoon over the interior as front
clears those areas. Overnight lows look to be mild, ranging from
the upper 50s interior to lower half of the 60s coast. Daytime
highs on Friday, unseasonably warm with numbers ranging from 75
to 80. /10

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...A drier northwest
flow pattern aloft will set up across the forecast area Friday
night, while a light northeasterly surface flow pattern is expected
with cool surface high pressure ridging from the Tennessee Valley
to the central Gulf Coast region. With precipitable water values
generally averaging less than 0.5", we will maintain a dry
forecast Friday night, with colder overnight lows in the lower to
mid 40s expected over interior portions of the forecast area with
readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s near the coast and beaches.
The dry/low precipitable water airmass will hold in place across
central and eastern portions of the forecast area through Saturday
morning, before deep layer moisture gradually increases from west
to east across much of the forecast area by Saturday afternoon in
response to an approaching shortwave trough embedded within zonal
mid level flow. Deeper moisture and stronger lift will remain
focused mostly to the west of our forecast area during the day
Saturday, but expect at least isolated to scattered rain showers
and possibly isolated thunderstorms could develop over central and
western portions of the region by Saturday afternoon. We have
generally maintained a 30-40% chance of convection over central
and western portions of the CWFA by Saturday afternoon, with
10-20% coverage at best over the east. Highs Saturday should range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The aforementioned shortwave trough axis will continue to
translate eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Saturday
night into Sunday morning, while the ECMWF and CMC operational
guidance both indicate a deepening surface low over the northwest
and north central Gulf of Mexico Saturday night into Sunday. The
GFS continues to show a weak inverted trough much farther south
during this time frame. Guidance members also show surface ridging
extending southward into the north central Gulf of Mexico this
weekend, with a reinforcement of colder air arriving late Saturday
night into Sunday across our forecast area. Confidence remains
high that rain showers will spread across the region Saturday
night as the shortwave trough and reinforcing cold front spreads
over the region. We will also keep POPs in the likely (60-70%)
range over southern areas into Sunday morning as additional
precipitation spreads overhead with the potential surface low
passing south of our area. Given the cool and relatively stable
airmass over the region, the overall thunder potential looks
relatively low late Saturday night and especially Sunday, so will
keep mention as mostly rain showers. Rain chances should decrease
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as shortwave troughiness moves
eastward. Lows Saturday night range in the 40s to around 50 over
the interior to the lower to mid 50s near the coast. Highs Sunday
should range in the mid 50s inland to lower 60s coast. Lows Sunday
night will be colder, ranging from 40-45 over the interior to
around 50 near the coast. /21

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A cool and dry weather
pattern is expected through the long term portion of the forecast
underneath a general northwest flow pattern aloft. Highs early in
the week generally look to range in the lower to mid 60s. A
reinforcing cold front will bring cooler temperatures late Tuesday
and Wednesday. Will need to watch for lows near freezing over the
interior Tuesday night - the current forecast has readings in the
lower to mid 30s over interior areas, and upper 30s to lower 40s
near the coast. Highs Wednesday should be cooler in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Temperatures should modify a few degrees Wednesday
night into Thursday. /21

MARINE...A series of fronts make passage over the coastal
waters. The first comes thru on Friday afternoon bringing an
increased offshore flow Friday night. The next frontal passage
looks to occur on Sunday bringing moderate to strong offshore flow
in its wake. A better chance of showers and storms looks to
accompany this front. There is also some potential for a frontal
wave of low pressure to develop over the upper Texas coast late
Saturday night and track eastward across the northern Gulf, off
the Louisiana coast on Sunday. The result would be a moderate to
strong northeast flow and building seas late in the weekend.
Something we will be watching. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
349 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

ALZ051-053-054-101030-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-Choctaw AL-
349 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN CLARKE AND NORTHWESTERN WILCOX
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CST...

At 348 AM CST, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Dug Hill to near Sable, moving southeast at 45
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman, Pennington, Gilbertown, Toxey and Dannelly Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3230 8794 3230 8798
      3228 8802 3217 8801 3214 8804 3209 8804
      3206 8812 3200 8811 3202 8768 3205 8762
      3213 8762 3213 8752 3227 8751 3227 8744
      3217 8729 3178 8826 3193 8847 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0948Z 303DEG 40KT 3253 8794 3221 8874