Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected Mesoscale Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Thunderstorms will increase at and around area
terminals through the afternoon, some of which could become severe.
IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible in and around thunderstorms
through the afternoon hours. Low ceilings and patchy dense fog can
will develop tonight into Wednesday morning. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1152 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...Conditions remain favorable for an increasing
potential of severe weather, including all modes (very large
hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes) across a good
portion of our forecast area through the afternoon hours. There is
an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather across locations generally to
the south of a Waynesboro MS, Chatom AL, Brewton, AL, Milton FL
line. This Enhanced Risk includes the Mobile and Pensacola Metro
areas. There is a Slight Risk of severe storms across the remainder
of the forecast area.

The latest high resolution guidance is in agreement that the
atmosphere will continue to destabilize in the Enhanced Risk area
this afternoon, with MLCAPE values increasing to 1000-1500 J/KG.
The unstable airmass in conjunction with strong deep layer shear
(up to 40-50 knots), steepening mid level lapse rates (7.0-8.0
C/km in the 700-500 mb layer), and curved low level hodographs
with 0-1 km storm relative helicity values up to 200-300 m2/s2
will favor supercell development with very large hail up to
golfball sized and possibly larger, damaging winds, as well as
potential for isolated tornadoes. In terms of timing, we think
best severe potential will affect locations west of a Camden to
Mobile line through around 2 PM, with better severe potential
advancing eastward across the rest of the forecast area through the
remainder of the afternoon. We have updated our local graphicast
with the risk/timing on our front page at www.weather.gov/mob as
well as our local social media outlets.

Tornado Watch #27 has been issued for all of southwest and south
central Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle, as well as
local bays/sounds and the offshore waters out to 20 NM until 6 PM
CST. Tornado Watch #26 continues for our 5 southeast MS counties
until 2 PM CST.

Continue to monitor the weather situation closely this afternoon
and be prepared to take action should warnings be issued for your
area. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 820 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

UPDATE...Updated forecast for newly issued Tornado Watch
#26...which is now valid for all 5 of our interior southeast
Mississippi counties until 2 pm this afternoon. It is likely that
watches will be extended eastward into portions of Alabama and the
western Florida panhandle later today. As mentioned in an earlier
update, there is now an enhanced risk of severe weather over
southwestern portions of the forecast area. Morning RAOBS to the
west of our area observed mid level lapse rates of 7.0 to as steep
as 8.4 C/KM, this combined with the previously mentioned low wet
bulb zero heights likely to result in potential for very large
hail. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes also remain possible.
12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1029 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-081630-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
1029 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe weather across southeast
Mississippi, and portions of southwest Alabama and the northwest
Florida Panhandle. The enhanced risk area is generally along and
to the south of a Waynesboro Mississippi, Jackson Alabama, Brewton
Alabama line. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
across the rest of south central Alabama and the northwest Florida
Panhandle.

Thunderstorms...some severe...will move east across the area
today in association with a passing upper level disturbance.
Storms will move into our southeast Mississippi counties from the
west late this morning, then move east across southwest Alabama
and into the western Florida panhandle this afternoon, before
finally exiting south central alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle by early this evening. Large hail of golfball sized or
larger and damaging winds will be the primary threats associated
with these storms, but isolated tornadoes are also possible.

There is a high risk of dangerous rip currents along the beaches
of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Another round of storms is expected on Wednesday as a cold front
approaches from the west and moves across the area on Wednesday
night. The potential for severe storms is currently expected to be
much less on Wednesday, but there is still a marginal risk of
severe weather generally north and east of a Camden to Andalusia
line. Damaging wind and large hail will be the primary threats.

A high risk of dangerous rip currents continues along the beaches
of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle through
Wednesday and will possibly need to be extended through Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Emergency management and storm spotter group activation will be
requested today.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-081630-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1029 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop over the marine
area today. Some storms will become severe with large hail,
locally high winds and seas, frequent lightning and very heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Moderate to strong onshore flow is expected Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Frontal passage is expected Wednesday
night into early Thursday, creating a moderate to strong offshore
flow and building seas in its wake, making hazardous conditions
for small craft.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
226 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

ALZ056-059-060-264-266-FLZ201>206-072115-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Conecuh AL-Covington AL-
Escambia AL-Escambia Inland FL-Okaloosa Inland FL-
Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Escambia Coastal FL-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
226 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN...ESCAMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH...
SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON...WESTERN OKALOOSA...SANTA ROSA AND ESCAMBIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CST...

At 225 PM CST, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles west of Brewton to 6 miles north of Molino
to 9 miles northeast of Elberta, and moving east at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Ensley, Warrington,
Crestview, Gonzalez, Foley, Pace, Milton, Gulf Breeze, Brewton,
Orange Beach, Goulding, Century, Flomaton, Bagdad, Lillian and Myrtle
Grove.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for south central
and southwestern Alabama...and northwestern Florida.

LAT...LON 3023 8770 3079 8742 3126 8738 3127 8644
      3037 8670
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 255DEG 49KT 3113 8725 3082 8731 3053 8752

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
244 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW BAY MINETTE        30.83N 87.84W
02/07/2017                   BALDWIN            AL   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 39

&&

JFB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
310 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

ALZ058>060-FLZ205-072145-
Covington AL-Escambia AL-Crenshaw AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-
310 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHERN CRENSHAW...SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON AND
NORTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CST...

At 310 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest
of Opp, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Brantley, River Falls, Red Level, Lockhart,
Dozier, Heath, Gantt and Glenwood.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for south central
Alabama...and northwestern Florida.

LAT...LON 3153 8620 3100 8619 3099 8639 3097 8639
      3099 8671 3119 8672 3119 8670 3135 8670
      3137 8667 3140 8666 3143 8667 3144 8670
      3152 8670 3152 8650 3162 8650 3170 8615
      3166 8615 3162 8618 3162 8615 3154 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 223DEG 55KT 3121 8636

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
319 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 E CASWELL             30.30N 87.51W
02/07/2017  M44.00 MPH       GMZ633             AL   MESONET

            WEATHEFLOW STATION IN PERIDO BAY RECORDED A WIND GUST OF
            44 MPH.

0307 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SSW PENSACOLA         30.37N 87.21W
02/07/2017  M54.00 MPH       GMZ634             FL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW STATION IN PENSACOLA BAY MEASURED A WIND GUST
            OF 54 MPH.

&&

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     WATER SPOUT      2 ESE FORT MORGAN       30.22N 87.99W
02/07/2017                   GMZ650             AL   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT SE OF FORT MORGAN,
            AL

&&

DJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
344 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 ENE CRESTVIEW         30.77N 86.51W
02/07/2017  E55 MPH          OKALOOSA           FL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW STATION IN CRESTVIEW RECORED A WIND GUST OF
            55 MPH.

&&

DJOHNSON