River Flood Warning 25, NWS Mobile, AL

613 
WGUS84 KMOB 220311
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
911 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2017
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


&&

FLC091-230311-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0025.170223T0600Z-170224T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.170223T0600Z.170223T1200Z.170223T1800Z.NO/
911 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday evening...The Flood Warning continues 
for the Shoal River Near Crestview.
* From early Thursday morning until Thursday evening.
* At 08PM Tuesday the stage was 6 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Thursday morning and continue to 
  rise near 8.1 feet by Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  by late Thursday evening.
* At 8.0 feet, Minor flooding of low lying areas.  

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

608 
WGUS84 KMOB 231433
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
833 AM CST THU FEB 23 2017
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County.

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-231503-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170224T0000Z/
/CRVF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
833 AM CST THU FEB 23 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Shoal River Near Crestview
* until this evening.
* At 8AM Thursday the stage was 7.3 feet. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* At 8 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1223 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...A quick update has been made to gridded temperatures and
highs for the remainder of the day as observations indicate lower
to mid 60s given clouds and rains moving thru the region. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1145 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Large low pressure system over the southern US
responsible for abundant cigs of varying bases. Near term
forecast calls for lowest cig bases at IFR levels with mostly MVFR
vsbys in RA. Best organized rains/embedded tsra moves east of a
line from Thomasville to Gulf Shores AL this afternoon. Winds
generally variable. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1012 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Weather maps show a deeply reflected low pressure system
centered near the Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of this feature, a plume of
anomalously high deep layer moisture values was ejecting northward
off the Gulf, across the central Gulf coast. An assessment of
precipitable water values from 1.5 to 1.7 inches lies within a
range of 150 to 200% of normal for this date. Categorical chances
of showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder mixed in remains
in the forecast. Radar shows the bulk of the rain positioned
along a line from Thomasville Al, southward to out over the
Alabama and northwest FL coastal waters. Trends indicate a slow
eastward shift in the rains, which also initializes well with
latest high resolution solutions of the HRRR/NCEP 4.0KM WRF-NMM.
Surface mesonet observations indicate that many areas within this
band of rain have already picked up a half to one inch of rain on
average with a few areas reporting upwards of around 1.5 inches.
Overall, latest forecasts of rainfall amounts are panning out and
will make no changes at this time. Still could see some nuisance
type flooding over lower lying spots and roads subject to poor
drainage. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 716 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE...Did a quick update to the current marine forecast
mainly to reflect the offshore flow that developed in the wake of
the first round of rain. An moderate onshore flow is expected for
all areas later today. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

UPDATE...Did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly
to include fog for the overnight and early morning hours tonight
and on wed. Fog may become dense at times by early wed morning.
32/ee

MARINE...Did a quick update to the current marine forecast mainly
to include fog for the overnight and early morning hours tonight
and on wed. Fog may become dense at times by early wed morning.
32/ee

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...MVFR cigs and visibilities through 22.03z followed
by IFR to LIFR cigs and visibilities through 22.12z. Winds will
be mostly south at 5 to 15 knots through early this evening
shifting northwest to north at 5 to 10 knots through 22.12z.
32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...Broad upper low near the
TX/LA border early this morning is progged to shift east then
southeast across lower MS...extreme sw AL and the adjacent gulf
waters of AL and through NWFL. At the surface a broad area of low
pressure was located mostly over Arkansas this morning is progged
to shift southeast and deepen slightly over much of MS and lower
AL through this evening. Ahead of the upper system bands of
showers and isolated thunderstorms were located over lower parts
of LA and MS moving into lower AL early this morning progged to
shift further east across remaining locations of the forecast area
through this evening. Latest model soundings continue to show
weak surface based instability and shear in the lowest 3 km out
ahead of this system suggesting the threat for severe weather
remains low to nil...though with strong mid level forcing noted
with this system gusty winds up to 30 knots have been noted
especially where the heavier convection is noted. Latest radar
loops continue to show more bands of precip forming to the west
forecasted to move across the region through this afternoon and
possibly into the early evening hours. Rainfall totals from 1 to 3
inches locally will be possible today possibly leading to some
localized nuisance flooding where drainage is poor.

As for temps will stay close to the warmer MOS guidance through
tonight resulting in high temps in the upper 60s to near 70 for
most areas and lows in the lower to middle 50s inland and the
upper 50s to near 60 along the immediate coast. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...Anomalous mid/upper
level low pressure area (and associated surface reflection) will
drift southeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and
Wednesday night reaching south Florida by 12Z Thursday. Low/mid
level wrap-around moisture and dynamics aloft will result in some
lingering light precipitation possible during the day on
Wednesday, ending by Wednesday evening as upper ridging builds
over our area. The upper low will move east into the northern
Bahamas Thursday night with ridging continuing locally. Highs
Wednesday in the low to mid 70s, and in the mid to upper 70s
on Thursday. Lows both Wednesday and Thursday nights in the
low/mid 50s northwest interior to near 60 southeast and coastal.
12/DS

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...A weak frontal boundary will
be approaching the forecast area from the northwest on Friday and
move across the region Friday night, bringing a slight chance for
showers on Friday night. After this brief period for isolated
showers, high pressure builds and moves east across the region
Saturday through Monday of next week with no precipitation
expected. Continues quite warm on Friday with highs mid 70s to
lower 80s. Lows Friday night in the 50s as the front moves
through, then cooler over the weekend and into the early part of
next week in the wake of the front with highs in the 60s Saturday
and Sunday and in the lower 70s by Monday. Saturday night will be
the coldest night in the long term period, with lows in the upper
30s over interior counties and in the low to mid 40s coastal
counties and along the coast. Sunday night expected to be slightly
warmer with lows in the lower 40s interior and low/mid 50s
coastal. 12/DS&&

MARINE...Bands of heavy showers with a few isolated thunderstorms
will move eastward across the marine area through this evening. Wind
gusts to 30 knots will be possible with some of the heavier
convection. A deep area of low pressure will move east then
southeast across the north central and eastern Gulf through early
wed leading to more showers and isolated thunderstorms through
this evening. Away from the convection winds will be south to
southwest at 13 to 18 knots shifting north late tonight and early
Wednesday morning. High pressure will build across the region
through the week leading to a moderate offshore flow through early
Friday then building late Friday into Saturday as a reinforcing
cold front moves across much of the northern Gulf.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
736 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221215-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
736 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of heavy rain may lead to some localized nuisance
flooding mostly in areas of poor drainage through tonight.

A moderate risk for rip currents will continue along the gulf
beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Areas of fog with visibilities lowering to a quarter mile or less
will be possible mostly during the overnight and early morning hours
through Friday morning.

A moderate risk for rip currents will continue along the gulf
beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida through tonight.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Monday.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-221215-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
736 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hazardous wind and wave conditions can be expected over the
marine area through early tonight.

Heavy rain mixed with some patchy fog could lower visibilities to
below one nautical this morning and overnight tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Areas of fog with visibilities lowering to one nautical mile or
less will be possible mostly during the overnight and early
morning hours through Friday morning.