Freeze Watch 1, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1157 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...
VFR Conditions dominate for the majority of the forecast period,
though MVFR ceilings should persist prior to mid morning. Breezy
northwest winds are to be expected for the next 24 hours. 17/DJ &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...IFR to MVFR cigs and visibilities through about
14.15z followed by mostly MVFR cigs through 15.00z. Expect light
rain ahead and along a cold front that moves across the north
central gulf coast region including all terminal sites in
southwest Al and northwest Fl through about 14.05z. Winds will be
northwest at 8 to 12 knots with higher gusts to near 20 knots
through 15.00z. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A weak low developing over
the north central Gulf will continue to create light rain along the
immediate coast though this afternoon. Meanwhile, an approaching
cold front will bring more light rain showers to the area later this
evening. The rain will end from the west by midnight with a much
colder and drier airmass moving in for Tuesday. Wrap around low
clouds will linger into Tuesday morning before breaking up my mid to
late morning. Highs on Tuesday will range from the low to mid 50s
inland to low 60s near the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the
low 40s inland mid and upper 40s along the coast. 13/JC

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...Cool and dry
high pressure will be building into the area from the north
throughout the short term period with mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies expected and no rain. Light northerly surface flow
expected through most of the period, becoming a little more
easterly by Thursday night. Primarily a temperature forecast
through the period. Overnight lows early in the period rather
cold, in fact below normal for this time of the year. Lows Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning will range from the lower 30s extreme
northern portions of the forecast area to the upper 30s across
most of the region to near 40 at the coast. Far northern portions
of Choctaw, Wilcox, Butler and Crenshaw counties may see
temperatures dip to right around the freezing mark for an hour or
two around sunrise Wednesday morning, but near freezing temps
should be of short duration. Wednesday night/Thursday morning will
be colder and with more widespread freezing or just below
temperatures. Temperatures ranging from the upper 20s over
interior northeastern counties and low 30s over nearly all
interior counties/zones...and even dropping to mid and upper 30s
near the coast. Freezing or just below temperatures very possible
generally everywhere along and north of roughly a Crestview to
Atmore to Lucedale line. Due to the relatively mild winter so far,
and the fact that there is a considerable amount of "early
blooming", we will likely issue a Freeze Watch for that general
area Tuesday, and upgrade to a Freeze Warning either Tuesday
night or on Wednesday. Current data suggests possibility of at
least 6-8 hours of freezing or slightly below freezing
temperatures late Wednesday night into the early morning hours
Thursday. Slight warming Thursday night with min temps primarily
in the 40s. Highs Wednesday in the middle 50s areawide, upper 50s
and lower 60s on Thursday. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Surface high pressure ridge
becomes more east-west oriented over the area Friday and
Saturday, with surface winds becoming more south and
southwesterly, bringing continued warming temps and increased
moisture. A cold front moves through on Saturday, with a chance
for showers, otherwise long term period dry. High temps warming
from the upper 60s and around 70 on Friday to into the mid 70s by
Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows fairly uniform, ranging from
upper 40s and lower 50s inland to mid and upper 50s at the coast
each night. 12/DS

MARINE...A weak cold front will stall near the coast late tonight
into thursday with a generally light and variable wind flow. A light
to moderate southerly flow then persists late Thursday through
Friday. A light to moderate northerly flow develops Saturday and over
the weekend in the wake of a cold front that moves offshore Saturday
morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front Friday into Friday night. 13/JC

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
153 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141900-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
153 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A much colder airmass will move into the region on Tuesday with
lows Tuesday night falling to around freezing across far northern
portions of the area. Wednesday night will be even colder, with
lows in the upper 20s and low 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40
along the coast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Sunday.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-141900-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
153 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue through Tuesday
morning due to strong east to northeast winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Moderate to strong offshore flow will continue to create
hazardous conditions for small craft Tuesday into Friday.