Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...West coast sea breeze convection will gradually transition
eastward across the nrn interior into the evening hours. Additional
convection is also expected to develop across the remainder of the
interior into late evening as outflow from storms to the west meet
up with slow moving east coast sea breeze boundary. Will forecast
high scattered range pops for much of the area into late evening and
hold on to a slight chance of showers past midnight with deep layer
moisture and SW flow across the area ahead of the mid level trough
across the srn Ohio Valley. Could be a few stronger storms this
evening with strong winds, locally heavy rain and frequent
lightning. Storms will move toward the Atlantic mainly north of
Melbourne where the offshore mid layer flow will be southwest and
strong enough to move convection toward the intracoastal and near
shore waters. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.

Saturday-Monday...A mid level trough across Ohio Valley will move
toward the NE US and keep mid level southwest flow and deep moisture
across central Florida through the weekend. The low level ridge will
remain across south Florida with low level southwest flow Saturday
becoming lighter across the area on Sunday. Expect likely
shower/thunderstorm chances across much of east central FL for
Saturday with slightly lower coverage in the scattered range to end
the weekend. Considerable cloudiness is expected each afternoon is
expected with highs around 90 Saturday to the lower 90s Sunday. High
pressure will become stronger north of the area on Monday with
developing onshore flow. Mean moisture levels will decrease with
POPs mainly in the 30-40 percent range.

12z guidance suggests there is still wide disparity in the evolution
of a trough that will affect eastern parts of the country late next
week. Some model/solutions and runs over the past few days have
shown the trough cutting off well northwest of the area while others
have shown a deeper and more progressive trough. The evolution of
this trough will become more critical in the Day 7-8 time frame in
the steering potentially of Irma. At this time we will have to
continue to watch future model solutions to refine the longer range
forecast. Previous extended forecast discussion follows...

Tuesday-Friday...An amplified mid level short wave trough is progged
by the global model guidance to dig southward into the MS/OH valleys
through Thursday and extending well south to the Gulf Coast/northern
GOMEX, before lifting out toward the end of next week. The trend for
local sensible weather during the mid to late week period looks to
be toward increasing deep layer mean moisture with surface winds
gradually veering more southerly as the Atlantic ridge weakens. This
results in increasing mid to late week rain chances. Temps look to
be fairly close to normal.

Guidance has been vacillating on whether next week's central-eastern
CONUS trough will cut off or remain progressive. The 00Z operational
runs have trended toward the latter solution, and (not surprisingly)
their respective ensembles and means continue to show quite a bit of
spread. The evolution of this trough will have a significant impact
on to what extent the western flank of the Atlantic ridge erodes,
and consequently, how close major Hurricane Irma will eventually get
to the SE coast of the U.S. toward next weekend (days 8-10). While
this is beyond the scope of the local 7-day forecast, it still
merits mentioning, as we will be watching the trends throughout the
weekend and next week. It goes without saying - but will be said
again nonetheless - being more than a week out, we will be in a
"wait and see" mode for the next several days, and probably well
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Isolated showers/storms possible along the east coast sea breeze
with the highest coverage expected over the interior terminals and
for DAB/TIX. Have kept VCTS longer from VRB, MLB, TIX, and DAB due
to the possibility of some activity working its way back to the
coast later this evening. Have also bumped up winds in TEMPO groups
due to increased potential for stronger wind gusts with any
thunderstorms. VFR then for the overnight through early Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Southerly winds are expected to around 10 knots with seas
generally 3 ft near shore up to 4-5 ft well offshore in an east
swell. Higher shower and storm chances are expected mainly this
evening through around 2 am across the Atlantic waters north of
Sebastian.

Saturday...Southerly flow will weaken to 5-10 knots with seas 2-3 ft
near shore and 4-5 ft offshore in an east swell. Southwest steering
flow will allow some storms to move offshore into the nearshore
waters by mid to late afternoon.

Sunday-Tuesday...The weak western nose of the Atlantic low level
ridge lifts north across the local waters this weekend into early
next week. This will result in winds slowly backing toward the SE
and east, while speeds remain 10KT or less. Seas 2-3FT near shore
and 3-4FT well offshore on Saturday will subside by about a foot
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  73  89 /  50  60  30  30
MCO  75  90  73  93 /  50  60  30  40
MLB  75  90  74  90 /  50  60  30  40
VRB  74  89  73  90 /  40  60  40  40
LEE  76  90  74  91 /  40  50  30  40
SFB  75  90  73  93 /  50  60  30  40
ORL  76  91  75  93 /  50  60  30  40
FPR  75  90  73  90 /  40  60  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Volkmer
RADAR/IMPACT WX...Bragaw
AVIATION...Combs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
102 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-020515-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
102 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
High moisture and instability over central Florida will bring a
chance for strong afternoon thunderstorms. The first lightning
storms of the day are expected to develop along the east coast sea
breeze boundary this afternoon south of Melbourne, as well as
north of the I-4 Corridor. Storms will focus over east central
Florida north of the Beachline Expressway late this afternoon and
early this evening as the sea breeze boundaries interact. Some
storms will produce wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph, with the
possibility of severe winds around 60 mph late this afternoon and
early evening. Frequent to excessive lightning strikes, very heavy
downpours, and small hail will be possible as well.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Local heavy rain will be possible mainly from Brevard and Osceola
counties northward where thunderstorms concentrate this afternoon
and evening. Rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches will be
possible within a 60 to 90 minute time frame that will produce ponding
of water on roadways and flooding in poor drainage areas.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
An increasing east swell will bring a moderate risk for rip
currents along area beaches. The greatest threat will be through
early this afternoon due to tidal effects. Remember to swim near
a lifeguard and never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Afternoon storms capable of generating wind gusts in excess of 35
knots will pose a hazard to boats on inland lakes, as well as the
Atlantic and Intracoastal Waters, especially north of Sebastian
Inlet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Deep moisture will remain over central Florida through weekend,
allowing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop each afternoon and early evening, especially over the
interior counties. The primary threats will be lightning strikes,
strong wind gusts, and local heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed. Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts of
3 inches or greater.

Bragaw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
503 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

FLZ041-141-012200-
Inland Volusia County FL-Coastal Volusia County FL-
503 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

At 458 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
developing southward from northeast Volusia County and Ormond by the
Sea. Activity will continue to develop further southward into this
evening with movement toward the north or northeast at around 10
mph..

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Ormond Beach and DeLand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall will be possible with current and future storms,
and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with some
storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2943 8107 2909 8090 2893 8078 2881 8074
      2886 8135 2926 8124 2927 8115 2941 8116
      2943 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 240DEG 49KT 2944 8105

Sedlock

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