Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
347 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Iso/Sct storms developing in the heat of the afternoon
will translate quickly toward the Atlc coast through nightfall.
Collision with a nearly stationary E coast breeze boundary wl
allow for a few stronger storms to develop through nightfall. Sct
coverage of pcpn this evening will diminish over land by around 10
pm with some lingering marine showers/storms into the overnight
hours, primarily over the Gulf Stream.

Saturday...An east coast US Mid-upper trough will dig Swd over
the southeast states. This will cause the axis of the local
Atlantic surface ridge to be suppressed well south of the area.
Southwest flow will prevent the east coast sea breeze from moving
inland resulting in mid 90s over most of the area away from the
beaches. With warming aloft and lack of sfc boundary development a
low PoP only near 20 pct will be maintained.

From prev disc...

Sunday-Friday...The trough aloft along the eastern seaboard is still
shown digging far enough south to shove a frontal boundary to near
the Florida/Georgia border on Sunday. The 00z GFS even showed a weak
wind shift reaching our far northern sections late Sun and into Mon.
Pre-frontal moisture band will start to affect the area on Sunday
and raise PoPs sharply. The models show that even after the main
trough lifts out early next week, a piece of it will persist over
the southeast states and keep a deep/moist southwest flow over the
area through at least mid week.

The increased rain chances and cloudiness will take a bite out of
the sizable max temps of late, with MOS showing highs in the upper
80s to around 90 degrees by Mon and continuing through the rest of
the period.  Weakening and retrograding of the trough aloft is
indicated late in the week, which should allow the Atlantic ridge
to build back north with a decrease in deep moisture. Plan to
keep rain chances around 60% through mid week then taper back to
40-50% after that.

&&

.AVIATION...
Greater rain chances will exist toward Brevard County and the
Treasure Coast with boundary interactions that occur with the
stalled east coast sea breeze. Tempo MVFR conditions will occur
with any showers and storms which develop through evening.

Primarily VFR conds areawide into 29/16Z with brief MVFR conds in
rainfall locations through 29/02Z mnly along the E cst sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight and Saturday...Favorable boating conds through Sat as
Offshore gradient flow will produce wind waves of 1 to 2 ft near
the coast and 2-3 ft offshore tonight and into Sat. Winds and seas
locally higher near offshore moving storms.

Next week...A weak frontal trough wl provide a pattern chg as it
moves into N to Cntrl FL waters early next week. This should keep
the pressure gradient light there while southwest winds around
10 knots hold on in the south. Seas 2 feet at the coast and up
to 3-4 feet well offshore. High moisture over the area will
provide scattered-numerous showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  94  76  87 /  20  20  30  70
MCO  76  94  77  89 /  20  20  20  60
MLB  76  95  77  91 /  30  20  20  60
VRB  75  95  76  93 /  30  20  20  50
LEE  77  92  78  87 /  10  20  30  60
SFB  78  94  77  88 /  20  20  30  70
ORL  78  94  78  89 /  20  20  20  60
FPR  74  95  76  94 /  30  20  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

JP