Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
412 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Thru Tonight...early start to the convection today as the west
coast sea breeze pushed quickly across the peninsula from the Gulf
coast in deep layer SW flow. Collision occurring along the east
coast sea breeze late this aftn zippering down the coast and
producing the strongest storms of the day. Storminess along the
coast will transition into a debris rain next couple hours similar
to what is occurring over the interior. Expect much of the
precipitation to be over by 00Z (8 pm) but will hold onto a slight
chance into the mid evening. Do not expect much clearing over the
interior the remainder of the aftn as cirrus blowoff is toward
the west. This should limit any reheating and redevelopment
potential over the interior.

GFS appears too aggressive with convection redeveloping overnight
across the south. Think the HRRR and local WRF have a better
solution showing convection developing over the Gulf stream and
not over land.

Sun...The low-level Atlantic ridge axis will begin to lift north
from south Florida. A weak trough aloft across the region with 500
mb temperatures of -7C/-8C will combine with some sfc heating to
provide ample afternoon destabilization. However, forecast model
soundings show there may be more cloudiness than today. Storm
motion will continue from the SW or W favoring the east side of
the peninsula for rain/storms. Looks like another early start to
the convection especially across the north (Lake county). High
temperatures generally in the lower 90s.

Mon-Fri (previous)...The low-level ridge axis remains forecast to
linger between the central/south-central FL peninsula, perhaps
being nudged even further southward late in the week. The mid-
level weak troughiness will flatten out through Tue night, but
will gradually be replaced once again with a weak troughy mid-
level pattern across the southeast U.S. and north FL from mid into
late week. Our pattern of cooler mid-level temperatures will
begin to warm from mid-week into the late extended period. PWAT
values remain consistent with a summer-time pattern, perhaps a bit
more moist northward, and will occasionally decrease from
1.80-2.00 inches to 1.60-1.80 inches at times. Having said all of
that, believe that "high-end" SCT afternoon/evening shra/tsra
wording continues to look appropriate for this time period. Storm
steering flow appears to remain light SWRLY/WRLY, but will also
appear chaotic at times due to stronger afternoon/evening boundary
collisions. Near seasonal temps in the M70s for lows and highs in
the L-M90s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Numerous showers/thunderstorms producing gusty winds
between 30-40 kt and IFR/MVFR ceilings/visibilities moving steadily
across east central Florida this afternoon into early evening.
Thunderstorm activity winding down over the interior terminals
transitioning into a more light rain type event through 22Z.
Sea breeze collision just inland from the coastal terminals
(MLB/VRB/FPR) will produce potential for wind gusts 35 to 45 knots
through 22Z, then gradually diminish. VFR should then prevail
from late evening through early Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight/Sun...Surface high pressure ridge axis should begin to
lift northward from south Florida. This will continue a light
south to southwest flow and produce favorable boating conds with
a small swell the primary contribution to wave height. An SE sea
breeze will develop during the afternoon. Seas 1-2 feet,
occasionally 3 feet well offshore.

Mon-Wed (previous)...The low-level ridge axis remains stationed
between the central/south-central FL peninsula during this time.
Expect gentle to moderate breezes ranging from S/SE during the day
to S/SW overnight. Seas AOB 2FT near shore and 2-3FT offshore (up
to 4FT in the Gulf Stream). Biggest threat to mariners will be
from night/morning Gulf Stream convection and late
morning/afternoon- early evening convection along the east coast
intracoastal/near shore Atlantic waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  74  91  74 /  70  20  50  30
MCO  92  74  91  75 /  70  20  50  20
MLB  91  74  90  75 /  70  20  50  30
VRB  91  74  91  74 /  70  20  50  30
LEE  91  76  91  76 /  70  20  50  20
SFB  92  75  91  76 /  70  20  50  20
ORL  91  75  91  76 /  70  20  50  20
FPR  91  73  91  73 /  60  20  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Forecasts...Kelly
Impact Weather/Radar...Spratt/Weitlich
Aviation/Radar...Combs