Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
325 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tonight...A few showers and storms at mid afternoon mainly
between areas west of Vero Beach to near Lake Okeechobee. Latest
meso model runs indicate additional development to the north and
west of these areas as the sea breeze boundary drifts inland
through the late afternoon and interacts with cell from the west
coast boundary into early evening. Kept an isolated PoP into
the early evening hours. Lightning and heavy downpours due to
slow storm movement will be main concerns, but lingering dry air
aloft may allow strong downburst wind where boundaries collide.

Saturday...Ridge axis will be displaced southward from troffing
occurring in the eastern U.S. Some slight cooling aloft and
rising moisture into the region expected to allow a higher
coverage of diurnal showers and storms to return to the area. Low
level ridge axis drifts a little farther south to around Lake
Okeechobee, with light s-sw flow surface through mid levels. This
will allow earlier onset and faster inland progression of the east
coast sea breeze over the southern sections versus the north.
Highest PoPs will taper down from 50-60% north to around 40%
immediate Treasure Coast. Afternoon activity will drift slowly
toward the NNE into the evening hours.

Sun-Mon...Previous forecast persists Sunday, with the ridge axis
positioned over central FL. High PWAT values near 2" provides for
likely PoPs over a majority of the area for Sunday. On Monday, the
ridge drifts slightly northward, which keeps flow from the
southeast. This stronger flow will allow for showers and storms to
push farther inland, so highest coverage is kept to interior
counties (40-50%). Summertime temperatures continue with highs in
the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

Tue-Thu...(previous)Troughing pattern over the ern CONUS will weaken
and fill in as the supporting H30-H20 jet streak lifts into the
New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Axis of the Bermuda Ridge
will lift north of the FL panhandle, allowing low/mid lvl flow to
shift to a more easterly regime. This pattern tends to focus
diurnal precip over the west half of the peninsula, with PoPs over
the east half generally blo 50pct. One caveat will be the future
track of TD 4, which ECMWF/GFS models estimate could impact the FL
peninsula by midweek. However, neither brings it through as
anything more than an open tropical wave.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR outside reductions in shra/tsra through around
sunset, especially inland areas south of KISM to Lake Okeechobee,
but isold activity may extend northward to around KISM-KLEE.

&&

.MARINE...Tonight-Sat...South winds 10kt or less, becoming
southeast near the coast in the afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft near shore,
up to 3 feet well offshore. Slight chance showers and storms.

Sun-Mon...Showers and storms in marine zones continue, with
better coverage nearshore on Sunday (40-50%), decreasing on Monday
(20- 30%). As the ridge shifts northward, flow will become
dominantly SE, with winds 5-10 kts and seas 2-3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  75  89 /  20  50  30  60
MCO  75  93  75  92 /  20  60  20  60
MLB  76  91  75  89 /  20  50  30  60
VRB  74  92  75  90 /  20  40  30  50
LEE  77  93  76  92 /  20  60  20  60
SFB  76  93  75  92 /  20  60  20  60
ORL  77  93  76  91 /  20  60  20  60
FPR  73  92  74  89 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Glitto/Smith/Sedlock

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