Alert archive / Florida / Special Weather Statements in 2017
Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL
NWS Melbourne, FL issued this special weather statement at May 30, 2017, 6:04 PM EDT for Volusia County, Florida. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 30, 2017, 6:04 PM EDT (22:04 UTC)
- Expired
- May 30, 2017, 6:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 41 min
- Issued by
- NWS Melbourne, FL
County Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1304 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -69 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 948 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 30 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.3
- Supercell composite
- 1.9
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 30, 3:43 PM EDT, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 30, 3:43 PM EDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 343 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017 .DISCUSSION... ...Increasing Rain Chance this Week Signals Onset of the Wet Season for Most of the Area... Tonight...Boundary driven convection may linger into late evening over interior sections. The latest HRRR suggests this will be near the Kissimmee River to Okeechobee so will have 40 percent POPs there. Elsewhere, expect a slight chance through evening then becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Wednesday...Mid level trough from the Great Lakes into the southeast states will have just enough southward extent to keep high pressure ridge and associated subsidence shunted south and east of the local area. This and a low level southerly wind flow will allow precipitable water values to gradually rise. 500 mb temps are forecast to cool to around minus 9 Celsius. Some debris cloudiness should linger but max temps will still reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Therefore, we expect sufficient moisture and instability for at least scattered afternoon storms along the inland moving east coast sea breeze boundary. Steering level winds will remain out of the west/southwest, so these chance POPs should also include the immediate east coast. MOS POPs range from 70 percent across the north to 35 percent at Stuart where the sea breeze will push inland a little quicker. Our current forecast shows a similar POP range, except values are capped at 50 percent. Don't plan to change our previous forecast much. Given the cooler temps aloft and still some lingering mid level dry air, a few strong storms with frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 50 mph are expected again. Thursday-Tuesday...There hasn't been much change in the medium range models showing moisture values consistent with our typical wet season. Steering level winds out of the west will weaken late in the week and into the weekend as trough over the eastern CONUS lifts. This should bring the highest coverage of afternoon/evening storms to interior sections. By late in the weekend or early next week, the models show a weak trough aloft approaching from the Gulf of Mexico. This would bring steering level winds from the west again and with even higher moisture forecast, coastal sections should get back into a higher coverage of the diurnal convection. The GFS continues to run with high POPs (many days with likely values) while the ECMWF has been more tempered. A model blend keeps POPs in the 50s most days and looks good for now. && .AVIATION...We're getting into the season where the main impediment to aviation will be afternoon/evening convection. While the interior will have the highest chances for storms through this evening and again tomorrow, increased moisture on Wed should allow for a greater chance of afternoon storms at coastal terminals before the sea breeze boundary moves inland. && .MARINE... Tonight-Wednesday...High pressure ridge axis will migrate back into the waters on Wed. Southerly winds around 10 knots are indicated with seas remaining benign 2 feet or less. The models are showing some showers/storms out over the waters tonight and early Wed, especially along the Gulf Stream. There is a chance for storms and outflow boundaries to affect the intracoastal and nearshore waters Wed afternoon. Thu-Sun...The axis of high pressure ridge should remain over the waters and mainly support speeds around 10 knots, except 10-15 knots Sunday. Scattered storms will continue each afternoon, mainly across inland areas. Storms may start to push offshore by Sunday. Additionally, more night/morning showers and storms are expected especially in the Gulf Stream. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 88 72 87 / 30 50 30 40 MCO 72 91 72 91 / 30 50 40 60 MLB 75 89 74 88 / 30 50 30 40 VRB 75 89 74 88 / 20 40 30 30 LEE 74 91 73 92 / 20 50 30 60 SFB 73 91 73 91 / 30 50 40 50 ORL 74 91 73 91 / 30 50 40 60 FPR 74 90 73 89 / 20 30 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && SHORT/LONG TERM...Lascody IMPACT WX/AVIATION...Bragaw & Smith
Hazardous weather outlook, May 30, 5:56 AM EDT, 12 hours 8 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Melbourne FL 556 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141- 144-147-302300- Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia- Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County- Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County- Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin- Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County- Northern Brevard County- 556 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... Increasing moisture and the inland moving east coast sea breeze will spark isolated to scattered lightning storms this afternoon into early this evening. Initial storm development should occur early this afternoon just inland from the Volusia or Brevard coast then develop farther inland toward Lake county and south toward Okeechobee county by late in the day. Storm coverage should be lowest along the Treasure coast of Martin and Saint Lucie counties. Residual dry air in the mid levels may produce a few strong downburst winds up to 45 mph. Cloud to ground lightning will be the primary hazard. Seek shelter indoors if thunder is heard. .MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT... A few lightning storms over land may push back across the intracoastal waters and nearshore Atlantic this afternoon and early evening, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. Gusty outflow winds near 35 knots will be possible along with dangerous lightning strikes. .FIRE WEATHER IMPACT... Continued dry vegetation will produce a high to very high danger of wildfire spread. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A more typical wet season pattern is expected this week into the weekend with scattered afternoon and evening lightning storms. Locally heavy rain, gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning will accompany storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today. Kelly
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 30, 3:18 PM EDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
318 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017
FLZ147-301945-
Northern Brevard County FL-
318 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM EDT...
At 317 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was reported over Canaveral
Groves, or near Lone Cabbage Fish Camp. This storm was nearly
stationary.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Rockledge, Cocoa, Lone Cabbage Fish Camp, Sharpes and Port Saint
John.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2834 8072 2834 8086 2835 8086 2835 8087
2847 8089 2847 8087 2850 8077 2833 8071
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 336DEG 2KT 2841 8083
BragawSpecial weather statement, May 30, 6:04 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Melbourne FL 604 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017 FLZ041-044-302245- Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia County FL- 604 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VOLUSIA AND NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT... At 602 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Orange City, moving northwest at 5 mph toward west Deland. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Deltona, DeLand, Orange City, Lake Helen and DeLeon Springs. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 2897 8120 2886 8131 2899 8151 2915 8136 TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 118DEG 6KT 2896 8132 Cristaldi
The office that day
Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 3:18 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | MLB | Brevard | 27 min |
| May 30, 7:25 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | MLB | Lake | 50 min |
| May 30, 7:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MLB | Lake, Seminole | 34 min |
| May 30, 7:56 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | MLB | Lake | 49 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Florida, 2017Every special weather statement in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.