Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion...RETRANSMITTED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Additional beneficial rainfall with potentially Strong to Severe
Storms on Wednesday...

...Deteriorating Marine Conditions Wednesday-Thursday...

Current-Tonight...KXMR 15Z sounding shows some drying since the 10Z
sounding with a PWAT now of 1.42 inches. Temperatures at 700/500mb
were +7.1C/-8.6C respectively. 915 MHZ Cape profilers continue to
show deep southwest flow across the area. Upper low pressure aloft
over the Upper Midwest will gradually sink southward through this
period as upper troughing begins to deepen over the Deep South and
GOMEX. A series of weak impulses aloft ahead of the main trough will
traverse the north Gulf and north FL peninsula during this time.

For the remainder of the afternoon and evening will be watching
radar for an increase in scattered shower/isolated storm activity
associated with the WCSB and surface heating. These cells will
develop across the central peninsula and push rapidly northeastward.
We continue to not expect quite the coverage we saw last evening.
These cells will push off of the east coast and across the near
shore Atlc waters. Highest coverage (40pct) will be found across the
I-4 corridor. Threats with storms will include heavy downpours,
lightning, gusty winds and perhaps small hail. Activity will
decrease early this evening, then all eyes will turn northwestward
as a squall line is forecast to develop late tonight and advance
eastward. This line of storms, if it holds together, could make it
into our northern counties just before or perhaps just after sunrise
Wed morning, but it may be on a weakening trend by this time.

While surface SWRLY winds will decrease into this evening, they will
still remain elevated as the pressure gradient remains fairly tight.
Overnight lows mild and generally 70-75F areawide.

Wed...Expect some ongoing convection early in the period across the
I-4 corridor. Expect this activity to be on a downward trend early
in the morning, but may spread further southward to some degree.
With deep layer moisture, impulses aloft, daytime heating cannot
rule out at anytime additional shower/storm activity during the day
across ECFL. However, later in the day another batch of convection
will develop across the eastern GOMEX and spread onto the west coast
in the afternoon and may affect our western and northern counties
before sunset. Some afternoon storms could contain heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, hail, and strong wind gusts. An isolated tornado
or two will also be possible. Strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out. One to two inch rainfall can be expected across much of
the CWA with locally higher amounts possible through this 24 hour
period. A slow moving cool frontal boundary will extend from north
FL thru the GOMEX by the end of the day.

Temperatures will be interesting, especially northward, where
thicker clouds and earlier/additional precipitation could keep
temperatures down. For now, will go with lower 80s north of I-4 with
M-U80s further southward. A few lower 90 degree readings will be
possible, mainly south of KMLB if enough surface heating occurs in
the afternoon.

Wednesday night-Thursday night...the deep mid-upper level trough
will become negative tilt as ir rotates eastward across the SE and
eastern CONUS through Thursday, and then into the western Atlantic
by Thursday night. Its attendant surface low will draw a weak cool
front through central Florida overnight into early Thursday morning
bringing a brief 24 hour period of slightly cooler and drier weather
to the region.

Numerous showers and storms will be ongoing at the start of the
period, with activity, likely in the form of an initially intense
but then gradually decaying squall line, steadily pushing eastward
and offshore while propagating southward through the CWA through
early Thursday morning. After a few lingering showers across the
south post-sunrise, drier and slight cooler air overspreads the
remainder of the CWA. Min temps Wednesday night in the U60s-L70s.
Thursday maxes drop back to the L-M80s north-central and U80s south.
Mins Thursday night mainly in the L-M60s.

Friday-Tuesday (modified previous)...H85-H50 trough associated with
the frontal boundary will push into the western Atlantic on Friday
as the storm moves across the Canadian Maritimes. The front will
stall over south Florida and wash out over the weekend. Deep high
pressure ridge will build in from the Gulf of Mexico and across the
peninsula Saturday, en route to the western Atlantic on Sunday where
it will merge with and reinforce the Atlantic ridge. Dry/suppressed
air mass will keep the forecast dry through Saturday. As the ridge
builds over the western Atlantic with its trailing axis draped over
central FL, the local pressure gradient will become sufficiently
weak to allow both the east and west coast sea breezes to develop.
Moisture return will be slow as ridge will tend to block out any
high RH, but looks high enough by Sunday to bring low end (20) POPs
back into the fcst around Lake Okeechobee. Moisture increasing from
south to north will allow for a slow upward trend in rain chances
Memorial Day into Tuesday.

Near full sun and light southerly flow will generate above average
temperatures for the upcoming holiday weekend...with maxes in the
U80s/L90s along the coast to M90s over the interior. Mins U60s/L70s
interior and L/M70s along the coast.

Beach Outlook for the upcoming Holiday Weekend...A high pressure
ridge is forecast to be over the area. This will provide rather
light winds, except for the afternoon sea breeze. No source of long
period swell is indicated either. While rip currents can still
occur, they shouldn't be nearly as active as the last 2 Memorial Day
Weekends (3 fatalities in 2016 and 4 in 2015). The chance for
afternoon lightning storms looks low.

&&

.AVIATION...Gusty SW winds this afternoon will gradually decrease
this evening but remain elevated overnight as the pgrad remains
fairly tight. WDLY SCT showers/ISOLD storms will march across ECFL
this afternoon/evening with a few pushing off of the east coast,
especially Cape northward. Movement will be towards the NE at 20-25
kts. While much of the activity will end this evening with mostly
dry conditions overnight, an approaching squall line may make it to
the I-4 corridor before sunrise or a little after on Wed morning,
though it appears that it could be on a weakening trend by that
time.

On Wednesday, SW winds will again be breezy/gusty. There will remain
a chance for shra/tsra thru the day but a greater chance later in
the afternoon/evening as another batch of convection hits the west
FL coast and moves inland. A few of these storms could be strong to
severe with strong wind gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Tonight...The pressure gradient will tighten with gusty
S/SSW winds increasing to 15-20 kts over much of the area and
cautionary statements necessary for winds for all the marine legs
overnight. Seas will build to 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offs
ridge. Dry/suppressed air mass will keep the forecast dry through
Saturday. As the ridge builds over the western Atlantic with
itshore. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will move
northeast 20-25 knots off the mainland this afternoon/evening,
especially from Cape Canaveral northward.

Wednesday...As a late season cool front and associated strong upper
trough approach the area, shower and storm activity (offshore
moving) will increase. Heavy downpours, strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning, and small hail will all be possible. Cannot rule out an
isolated waterspout or two. Winds/seas locally higher INVOF storms.

Rather poor small craft boating conditions will also be attributed
to gusty SW winds. While there may be a lull in the late morning-
early afternoon, wind speeds will ramp up again by late afternoon
and evening making for hazardous conditions. At some point, a small
Craft Advisory will become necessary. During the day seas will build
3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore. Short period seas will make
for rough small craft boating, too.

Wednesday Night-Thursday Night...Hazardous conditions will continue
as the frontal boundary pushes through east central Florida, then is
expected to stall south of Lake Okeechobee after sunset with surface
winds gradually diminishing in its wake. A fresh to strong SW breeze
at daybreak becomes a moderate to fresh W-SW breeze by mid afternoon
then a gentle to moderate W/NW breeze overnight. Seas will build to
4-6FT near shore and up to 8FT well offshore late Wednesday night-
early Thursday, before subsiding to 2-3FT near shore and 3-4FT
offshore Thursday night.

Friday-Friday Night...Post frontal high pressure ridge will build
across the Florida peninsula, resulting in winds shifting through
the day. A light to gentle NW breeze at daybreak will become light
north by mid day, veering to E/NE by late afternoon amd S/SE by
midnight. Seas AOB 2FT nearshore and 2-3FT offshore.

Saturday-Sunday...Weak pressure gradient as the high pressure ridge
builds over the western Atlantic with its trailing axis extending
across central Florida. A light to gentle S/SW breeze in the morning
will become gentle to moderate E/SE breeze by mid aftn as the east
coast sea breeze dvlps and pushes inland. A moderate S/SW breeze is
expected overnight with the formation of the nocturnal land breeze.
Seas AOB 2FT nearshore and 2-3FT offshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Remainder of this afternoon...There remains no low
RH concerns but gusty southwest winds keep up thru the afternoon and
decrease slowly this evening. Winds will remain elevated more than
usual overnight as the pgrad remains rather tight.  With the
continued dry vegetation any lightning storm will have the potential
for new fire starts. The overall fire danger for wildfire spread
remains fairly high.

Wed...Breezy/gusty SWRLY winds continue on this day, though rain
chances will increase through the day/evening. Widespread rainfall
is expected over this 24 hour period. Some storms could be strong to
severe. Heavy downpours, frequent lightning, hail, and very strong
wind gusts are all in play.

&&

.CLIMATE...Melbourne's low is currently sitting at 76 degrees.
The record warm low here could be tied if the temperature remains at
or above 76 through midnight. The record was last set in 2007.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  84  69  82 /  60  90  70  20
MCO  72  84  70  83 /  30  80  70  30
MLB  75  89  71  85 /  20  70  70  50
VRB  75  91  72  86 /  30  60  70  60
LEE  74  80  68  82 /  60  90  70  20
SFB  73  83  70  84 /  50  80  70  30
ORL  74  84  70  84 /  40  80  70  30
FPR  73  91  73  87 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Sedlock
MID-LONG TERM...Cristaldi
DSS/RADAR/IMPACT WX...Cristaldi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1140 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-240000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1140 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Sufficient moisture will exist for isolated to scattered storms to
develop this afternoon. The greatest coverage should be from metro
Orlando and Cape Canaveral northward to the Ocala Forest and Lake
George. While a few strong storms will be possible, The main hazard
today will be from lightning strikes, which could occur out ahead
of the heavy  rain associated with storms. Storm motion will be
toward the northeast around 20 mph. Move indoors if skies darken to
the west and southwest.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered storms will move northeast at 20 knots this
afternoon, especially northward from Orlando and Cape Canaveral,
including the adjacent Atlantic waters. There is a chance for a
few storms to produce wind gusts around 35 knots.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
South to southwest winds 15 to 20 knots will occur in the open
Atlantic. Small craft operators should exercise caution,
especially returning to port, as wave heights 4 to 5 feet and
short wave periods will produce a rough chop.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
South to southwest winds will gust to around 20 mph by this
afternoon. Many areas received little or no rain on Monday, so
vegetation remains parched, and widely scattered lightning storms
will occur this afternoon. These factors will produce a moderate
to locally high danger of wildfire spread. Burn bans remain in
effect for all counties in east central Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
The approach of a frontal boundary on Wednesday will bring a
chance of strong to severe storms from Wednesday afternoon into
early Thursday.

Poor boating conditions on Wednesday will become hazardous in the
offshore waters by evening, then continue into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Lascody/Cristaldi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
524 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

FLZ141-232215-
Coastal Volusia County FL-
524 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM EDT...

At 523 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of New Smyrna Beach, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and small hail will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, South Daytona and
Daytona Beach Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2909 8090 2902 8085 2891 8110 2911 8123
      2924 8097
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 243DEG 19KT 2903 8109

Kelly