Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
11 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Noticeably higher dewpoints this morning producing humid conditions
and low clouds as the sea breeze develops. These cloud bases will
lift as sfc heating intensifies and shift inland with the sea breeze
boundary so coastal communities should become mostly clear except
for some cirrus streaming overhead from the west. Current PoP and
Temp forecast is in good shape showing the best chance for showers
and isolated storms over southern sections, south and west of
Orlando. High temps should reach around 90 again over the north
interior, lower 80s at the beaches.

Today-Tonight (previous)...High pressure building toward the mid-
Atlantic coast will shift offshore later tonight. Low level winds
will veer to the E/SE, increasing as the day progresses and becoming
breezy along the coast, south of the Cape, as the sea breeze kicks
in. Models are indicating a rather quick return in moisture in this
flow, with 00z GFS showing PW values up to 1.5-1.8" moving into
Treasure Coast and southern interior regions. Have therefore
increased rain chances 10-20% over portions of the interior, with
isolated to scattered showers possible as the sea breeze moves
inland. Best rain chances up to 30-40 percent, and the potential for
a thunderstorm or two will be across Osceola/Okeechobee counties and
near Lake Okeechobee, where greatest moisture will exist and
lake/sea breeze interactions are more likely. Greatest rain chances
will then shift into west central Florida past sunset, as east coast
sea breeze shifts west of the area.

Increasing diurnal cu and band of cirrus moving eastward from the
Gulf will lead to variable cloudiness across the region. However
sufficient daytime heating will exist for temperatures to rise into
the low to mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s to around 90
degrees inland. Lows tonight will be mild in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Patchy MVFR CIGs as sea breeze develops
along the coast through 16Z. Then iso-sct SHRA and possible TSRA aft
18Z along the inland moving east coast sea breeze, mostly south and
west of the Orlando metro area. VCSH at KISM late in the day looks
good and may need to add it to KLEE this evening as remnant
convection lifts N/NE from the west side of the peninsula. Easterly
winds will become breezy, 15 knots and gusty, along the coast mainly
south of the Cape this afternoon.

Increasing boundary layer winds will make fog less likely into
tonight, but areas of stratus could develop, producing tempo
IFR/MVFR cigs.

&&

.MARINE...
No significant changes to current coastal waters forecast.
Today-Tonight...High pressure near the mid-Atlantic coast will
increase E/SE winds over the waters up to 10-15 knots today, and up
to 15-20 knots offshore late tonight. Seas will range from 2-4 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...RH values will not be as low this afternoon as moisture
gradually increases from the south. Still, the lowest RH values will
be between 35 and 40 percent over the north interior (Orlando
north/west).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  67  83  69 /   0  10  40  20
MCO  91  68  87  68 /  10  10  40  20
MLB  84  69  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
VRB  83  69  85  70 /  10  10  20  20
LEE  91  69  86  71 /  10  20  40  20
SFB  90  67  86  69 /  10  10  30  20
ORL  90  68  86  70 /  10  10  30  20
FPR  83  68  85  69 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Kelly/Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
900 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-030200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
900 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Increasing moisture across south central Florida, may generate
showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two over the interior later
today. Best chance for this activity will be near Lake Okeechobee
and across Osceola and Okeechobee counties as the sea breeze
moves inland this afternoon.

If any storms do develop, they will have the potential to produce
dangerous cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds up to 40 mph.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A moderate risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at the
beaches of east central Florida today. While rip currents can
form at any time, the greatest risk will occur from mid afternoon
into early evening due to tidal effects. Always swim within sight
of a lifeguard and never swim alone.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A slight chance of lightning storms is in the forecast on Monday
and Tuesday as another weakening frontal boundary approaches from
the Gulf of Mexico.

Deteriorating boating conditions expected over the coastal waters
early this week, ahead of next frontal boundary to approach the
area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Weitlich/Johnson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
222 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2017

FLZ054-058-021900-
Okeechobee FL-Indian River FL-
222 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND
WESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 222 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fort Drum, moving north northwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Cypress Lake and Fort Drum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2764 8092 2764 8087 2773 8087 2773 8088
      2780 8088 2782 8074 2751 8068 2747 8068
      2747 8084
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 164DEG 17KT 2755 8081

Johnson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
352 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2017

FLZ059-064-022030-
St. Lucie FL-Martin FL-
352 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE AND
WESTERN MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 351 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of J And S Fish Camp, moving south at 5 to 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
J And S Fish Camp and Port Mayaca.

LAT...LON 2698 8062 2708 8066 2711 8066 2712 8068
      2727 8068 2731 8065 2725 8044 2696 8054
      2696 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 022DEG 9KT 2720 8060

Lascody