Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
500 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Fast moving showers and storms tapering off through early
afternoon...

...Coldest temperatures and wind chills of the winter season are
headed for east central Florida tonight...

...Very dangerous marine conditions with building seas and string
winds gusting to gale force late today into Sunday....

Current...Arctic frontal boundary remains Q-stationary for the time
being, draped across north Florida, as the second of two waves of
pressure begins to track ENE across north FL. Radar and IR satellite
imagery show multiple convective bands along and ahead of the front
pushing E to ENE toward and into ECFL. Despite widespread cloud
cover freshening S to SW flow had kept temps into the L70s across the
southern half of the CWA, and M-U60s to the north.

Today...Bands of fast-moving showers and storms will continue to
move into and across the CA from through sunrise. Higher coverage
and intensity of activity will shift southward from post-sunrise
into the early afternoon. There remains some small potential for
some convective elements to produce brief strong wind gusts given
modest instability (CAPEs to around 0.5K JKG-1), strong jet-forced
ascent, and 40-50KT SW-WSW H85 flow seen in CCAFS 915MHz DRWP data.
Main convective potential shifts south of the area by late afternoon
with a few trailing/weakening shower bands through sunset.

Cold front and associated wind shift will reach I-4 by mid-morning
and the Lake O/Jupiter Inlet by early afternoon. Strong CAA on NW to
NNW BLYR flow approaching 20KT will cause temps to fall from early
highs near their current readings, with only a few degrees worth of
diurnal temp rise across the southern CWA.

Tonight...Coldest temps and WCIs of the season thus far are poised
to overspread ECFL tonight as strong CAA continues in the surge of
20-25KT northerly boundary layer flow. Overall MOS temps came in a
degree or two cooler, primarily owing to surface/BLYR winds being a
bit stronger. This brings the threat of a light advective freeze to
the far northern CWA, where a Freeze Warning has been hoisted for
late tonight. WCI's are now progged to drop below local Advisory
criteria of 35F/2+ hours over a large portion of the CWA, with the
only "saving grace" for the Treasure Coast counties w/r/t both temps
and WCIs being the quick veering to north, which results in a slight
onshore trajectory.

Sun-Mon...Sunrise Sun will find very cold conditions to start the
day...much below normal. Stout Nrly sfc winds will persist from the
overnight period. Solar heating tries to overcome the cold air
advection...but with daylight hours on the short side looks like max
temps in the 50s will be the best the local atmosphere can pull
off...except lower 60s along the Treasure Coast. High pressure will
continue to build over the E-CONUS skewing toward the Carolina
coastal region into Mon. Winds will become progressively NE Sun into
Mon to commence shutdown of continental air and assume a familiar
maritime component. Warmer Mon in the 60s after another chilly
morning. Min temps U30 north Lake County to L50s lower Treasure
Coast.

Mid-Late Week...Indications remain for a slow moderating trend as NE
winds veer E in an increasing fetch resulting from sfc high pressure
moving off the Carolina coast and local gradient winds slackening.
This pattern will support widely scattered maritime showers for the
adjacent waters and coastal zone thru mid-week in the presence of a
subtle coastal trough. Max temps warming from the L70s on Tue onward
to U70s by end of period. Min temps 50s most places inland to L60s
on coast...warming to L60s most places by weeks end.

&&

.AVIATION...Numerous SHRA/TS progged for ISM-TIX through about 15-
16Z, ending rapidly from N-S, with bulk of the activity south of
KSUA by 20-21Z. Strong surge of NW-N winds of 15-20KT with frequent
gusts 20-25KT, and a little higher for the coastal aerodromes tonight
into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight. No change to the forecast philosophy other
than to upgrade the Gale Watch to a Warning upon coordination with
adjacent offices. Fresh to strong SW winds will shift to NW today
and north tonight, increasing to 25-30KT with gusts to gale force.
Seas building to 8-11FT near shore and 12-15FT offshore by tonight.

Sun...N-NE winds 20-30 knots gusting to gale force will support
current Gale Warning thru Sun afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 feet nearshore
waters and 10 to 12 feet offshore water...but up to 15 feet in the
gulf stream. An expansive sfc high pressure over the E-CONUS will
transition toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Mon-Wed...Gradually improving conditions from early part of week
into mid-week, but SCA-SCEC conditions likely to persist at least
thru Tue. Elongating sfc high pressure slides off the Mid-Atlantic
to turn the winds to a more easterly component while slackening the
gradient a bit. Seas gradually subsiding to SCEC conditions offshore
by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  36  52  43 /  80  10  10  20
MCO  68  37  55  44 /  80  10   0  10
MLB  71  43  59  49 /  80  20  20  20
VRB  74  48  61  52 /  80  20  20  30
LEE  65  32  53  39 /  80   0   0  10
SFB  67  36  54  44 /  80  10   0  10
ORL  67  37  54  45 /  80  10   0  10
FPR  75  48  61  52 /  80  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for Coastal
     Volusia County-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Lake County.

     Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for Inland Volusia
     County-Northern Lake County.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for Inland Volusia County-Northern Lake County.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for Northern
     Brevard County-Okeechobee-Southern Brevard County.

AM...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM
     EST this afternoon for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard
     County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Sunday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Sunday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cristaldi
LONG TERM....Sharp
AVIATION...Cristaldi

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
926 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-071430-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
926 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN IMPULSE
ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TO TRACK FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL PREFRONTAL STORMS MAY REACH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
BEFORE SUNRISE.

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF MOTION, WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST AT
SPEEDS OF UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH BY VERY LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, WHILE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ALONG WITH CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 500 AM ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE YOUR WEATHER RADIO IN WORKING ORDER,
OR HAVE A CELLULAR WIRELESS ALERT SYSTEM IN PLACE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO IMPACT AREAS LAKES, AS WELL AS
THE INTRACOASTAL AND LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
DETERIORATING WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY AND WORSEN BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GALE
WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THOUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY ON
SATURDAY. FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA, BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR TO MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM AROUND
THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.

ADDITIONALLY, VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING AND SURF CONDITIONS, WITH
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS, ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
SHOULD ANY WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

CRISTALDI/GLITTO/VOLKMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
222 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017

FLZ041-044-141-070845-
Inland Volusia County FL-Northern Lake County FL-
Coastal Volusia County FL-
222 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM EST...

At 216 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong to severe
thunderstorms moving onshore of the West Central Florida coast near
Crystal River and moving quickly inland to the east at 40 to 50 mph.

These storms will sweep across the peninsula north of a line from
Leesburg...to Deland...to Daytona Beach. Residents in northern Lake
and Volusioa Counties should listen for possible warnings.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms. Isolated severe storms may produce winds to 60 mph and
large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Ormond Beach and DeLand.

LAT...LON 2943 8108 2908 8091 2887 8145 2878 8195
      2896 8195 2896 8166 2905 8166 2906 8164
      2928 8164 2932 8168 2938 8145 2940 8143
      2926 8142 2927 8115 2941 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 240DEG 48KT 2902 8231

DWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
417 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017

FLZ041-044-141-071015-
Inland Volusia County FL-Northern Lake County FL-
Coastal Volusia County FL-
417 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY
AND EXTREME NORTH LAKE COUNTY UNTIL 515 AM EST...

At 413 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
central Marion County about 15 miles west of Lake George moving
quickly east at 45 to 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Holly Hill, Pierson and Barberville.

LAT...LON 2922 8101 2912 8164 2928 8164 2932 8168
      2938 8145 2940 8142 2926 8142 2927 8115
      2941 8116 2943 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 255DEG 45KT 2927 8180

DWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
516 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017

FLZ041-044-071115-
Inland Volusia County FL-Northern Lake County FL-
516 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN
VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM EST...

At 513 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Wildwood and just southwest of Lake George, moving northeast at 50
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...Lady Lake, Leesburg, Eustis, Tavares,
Deltona, and DeLand.

LAT...LON 2896 8195 2896 8166 2905 8166 2906 8164
      2928 8164 2932 8168 2940 8142 2926 8142
      2926 8133 2889 8112 2885 8136 2888 8136
      2884 8139 2878 8178 2878 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1013Z 244DEG 48KT 2889 8210

DWS