Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Melbourne, FL

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
905 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Widespread Showers with Locally Heavy Amounts Possible...

Considerable showers with containing some embedded lighting strikes
will move northward over the entire area the remainder of today.
Rain amounts of one half to an inch will be common with some
locations receiving upwards of two inches mainly near the coast
before midnight. The upper air info from the morning release is not
particularly conducive for development of strong or severe storms as
the wind profile exhibits modest shear along with drying prevalent
in the H7-H5 layer. Expected storm parameters would contain sfc wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph along with hail size from a quarter to half an
inch in the stronger storms. The earlier forecast update remains
valid.

The sfc low analyzed just south of AQQ attm with central pres
estimated arnd 1005MB should deepen a bit more as it moves across FL
into tonight. Local rain chcs will remain high until the parent upr
low clears east of the area on Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 23/12Z.
Prevailing MVFR with areas of IFR will continue through 23/00Z.
Heavier showers and sct storms at all sites will bring IFR conds
with sfc wind G30kt and cigs falling to NR fl 010 and vsby 1-2SM in
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...(prev disc) Poor boating conds as a storm system
centered over the Deep South/ern GOMex pushes acrs the FL peninsula.
High pres centered off the Carolina Coast extending down to the
Bahama Bank will interact with the GOMex system to produce a tight
sfc/low lvl pgrad acrs the region. A brisk S/SE breeze will result
thru midnight tonight...moderate to fresh nearshore and fresh to
strong offshore.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for Sebastian Inlet
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet
     20-60 nm.

&&

JP/DKW

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
907 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-230200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
907 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Low pressure centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico this
morning will track southeast across the south Florida peninsula.
This will bring widespread showers to east central Florida,
especially after midday. Isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible, mainly this afternoon and into this evening. Main
threats will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds
up to 40 mph, small hail, and torrential downpours, as storms move
toward the north to northwest up to 20 to 25 mph.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Persistent bands of moderate to heavy rainfall may develop along
coastal areas of east central Florida, producing locally heavy
rainfall up to 2 to 3 inches. This may produce ponding of water on
area roadways and low lying areas.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Showers will become widespread across the local Atlantic waters by
this afternoon, along with a few thunderstorms. Any storms that
do develop will move toward the north to northwest. Any of these
storms will be capable of generating wind gusts in excess of 34
knots as well as dangerous lightning.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Marine conditions will be poor over the local Atlantic waters as
an approaching storm system allows south to southeast winds to
increase to 15 to 20 knots nearshore and 20 to 25 knots offshore.
Seas will build up to 4 to 6 feet nearshore and 5 to 7 feet
offshore as the winds increase. A Small Craft Advisory is now in
effect for all of the coastal waters of east central Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
As the storm system pushes slowly into the open Atlantic, winds
will back to the northeast from Sebastian Inlet northward,
increasing to 25 to 30 knots with gusts to gale force. This will
generate dangerous marine conditions over the local Atlantic
waters, with seas building to 8 to 12 feet north of Sebastian
Inlet, and 5 to 7 feet to the south. Isolated thunderstorms may
linger into Thursday as well, as well as the potential for locally
heavy rainfall, mainly along the coast of Brevard and Volusia
Counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to report any locally heavy rainfall
amounts greater than 2 inches.

Bragaw/Weitlich