Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS Melbourne, FL

053 
WHUS72 KMLB 150902
MWWMLB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
402 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

AMZ570-572-575-160900-
/O.EXT.KMLB.SC.Y.0008.170215T1200Z-170216T1500Z/
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-
402 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY
  AND BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT. 

* WAVES/SEAS...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND 6 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ550-552-555-160900-
/O.CON.KMLB.SC.Y.0008.170215T1200Z-170216T0900Z/
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
402 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY
  AND BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT. 

* WAVES/SEAS...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON AND 6 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

181 
WHUS72 KMLB 160910
MWWMLB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
410 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

AMZ550-552-555-161015-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-170216T0900Z/
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
410 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

AMZ570-572-575-161500-
/O.CON.KMLB.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-170216T1500Z/
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-
410 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASE INTO THE 
  AFTERNOON.

* WAVES/SEAS...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
  EARLY THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

475 
WHUS72 KMLB 161501
MWWMLB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1001 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

AMZ570-572-575-161615-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-170216T1500Z/
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-
1001 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

15

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Surface trough near the east coast will move offshore
through the night as low level SW flow increases at 925 mbs from 10-
15 knots this evening to 25-30 knots by morning. A shower or two may
develop near the east coast through early evening though coverage
will be extremely small so will keep rain chances less than 15
percent. Later tonight, models hint at stratus and patchy fog
development which looks likely based on low level environmental flow
and moisture progs. Min temps will drop into the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Wed...Low pressure across GA in the morning will move ENE into the
Atlantic into late in the afternoon and allow a prefrontal line of
showers and isolated storms to approach northern areas into the
early to mid afternoon and then reach Osceola to southern Brevard
county by late in the afternoon. Could be a few stronger storms with
gusty winds as 850 mb winds increase to 40-50 knots. Pressure
gradient will support windy conditions even ahead of the convection
with gusty SW flow by mid morning. Highs will reach near 80 north to
the lower to mid 80s across the central and srn sections.

Wednesday Night-Friday...(modified previous) Ongoing convection at
the start of Wed evening should weaken during the early evening as
it shifts farther south and offshore during the evening hours.

Drier/cooler conditions expected into late week as high pressure
builds into the area behind the frontal passage. Rain chances will
remain out of the forecast with temperatures near to below normal.
The coolest temperatures will occur into Thursday night, with lows
forecast in the 40s over much of the area.

Saturday-Monday...Both the GFS/ECMWF remain in fairly good agreement
showing a S/W trough moving eastward through the deep south Friday
night into Saturday. This feature is forecast to induce an area of
low pressure over the Gulf that will lift E/NE across north Florida
into Saturday night. Showers and isolated storms will move eastward
across the region into Saturday afternoon in an area of deeper
moisture out ahead of this system. 14/12z model runs indicate rain
chances will linger into at least the early part of Sunday before
axis of trough aloft shifts east and drier air moves into the region
through early next week.

Temperatures expected to remain near to above normal, with highs in
the mid to upper 70s Saturday and then in the upper 70s to low 80s
Sunday/Monday. Lows will generally range in the upper 50s to low
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern overnight will be development of stratus which should
affect nrn terminals late tonight and patchy development of ground
fog. Expect IFR CIGs mainly in the 08z-13z window for terminals
north of a KISM-KTIX. Gusty SW winds expected on Wed with SHRA/TSRA
CHCs increasing for nrn terminals beyond 15/18z with a prefrontal
line of showers and some storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Southerly winds to 10-15 knots this evening will become SW
to around 15 knots into late Tonight. Seas will build to 5 feet
across the well offshore waters.

Wed...SW winds will increase to 20-25 knots ahead of the front with
seas building to 6-7 ft well offshore in the afternoon. Chance of
showers and storms moving in from the west in the afternoon mainly
north of Sebastian Inlet with wind gusts above 34 knots possible.
Small craft advisory begins Wed morning and will continue into Wed
night.

Wednesday Night-Friday(edited)...Hazardous boating conditions will
persist through Wednesday night. W/SW winds increase up to 20-25
knots ahead of an approaching front and preceding band of showers
and storms, and remain elevated as they veer to the NW behind the
passing boundary. These offshore winds will gradually build seas to
7-8 feet offshore into Wednesday night. Will keep SCA up for all
legs through 09Z Thurs...at some point may need to extend it out
longer for the offshore legs where conditions will be slower to
improve.

High pressure will then slowly build into the area behind the front
during late week, which will lead to decreasing winds and seas, and
more favorable boating conditions into Friday.

Saturday...High pressure shifts east with southerly winds increasing
up to 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet. Showers and isolated storms
will cross the region into Saturday afternoon and push offshore
through the evening, ahead of a developing low over the NE Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Windy SW windy and excellent dispersion expected from mid day into
the afternoon on Wed ahead of the front moving toward the area.
Higher rain chances north of a Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne line with
a chance of thunderstorms by afternoon.

Thu...Much drier airmass expected Thu with Min RHs to 30-35 percent
across the nrn interior. Decreasing winds in the afternoon should
not necessitate any headlines.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  80  53  66 /  10  50  20  10
MCO  61  80  56  70 /  10  40  20  10
MLB  63  82  58  71 /  10  20  20  10
VRB  62  84  58  72 /  10  20  30  10
LEE  61  78  53  68 /   0  50  20   0
SFB  61  80  55  69 /  10  40  20   0
ORL  63  80  55  70 /  10  40  20  10
FPR  61  84  60  73 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Volkmer
LONG TERM....Glitto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
313 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-150000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
313 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A lingering east swell will produce a Moderate risk of rip
currents at the beaches of east central Florida. Always swim
within sight of a lifeguard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Boating conditions will deteriorate as offshore winds increase
Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front.

The cold front will bring a chance for lightning storms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A few storms may contain strong wind gusts.

Another fast moving system will bring another chance for lightning
storms on Saturday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

15